Motorcycle sales weakened in March: Just a blip or start of a trend?

[bigjohnsd]

If you feel like you're getting mixed signals about the health of the U.S. motorcycle market, you're not wrong.

The MIC reported that U.S. sales of new motorcycles and scooters in the first quarter of 2023 were down 2.1% from 2022. No big deal, right? But broken down by month, that was the result of increases of about 6% in January and February, followed by a 10.3% decrease in March, just when the selling season usually starts picking up. That matches other data and anecdotal evidence that consumers are starting to be more cautious and shift their spending to other categories as the pressures of inflation wear on. Major retailers Walmart and Target reported quarterly earnings last week and also noted that consumers cut back on spending in March, especially larger discretionary purchases, more than in the first two months of the quarter. So the trend appears to be much broader than the motorcycle industry.

https://www.revzilla.com/common-tread/motorcycle-sales-weakened-in-march#:~:text=The%20MIC%20reported%20that%20U.S.,were%20down%202.1%25%20from%202022.

"Last tango in Sturgis?"

The Motorcycle Industry Council reports that overall bike sales were down 2.1% for the quarter, which is not so bad, but, more notably, were down 10.3% during March, when the selling season usually starts picking up.

Why the dropoff? I think the answer comes as much from the sociologists as it does the market analysts, and it probably has to do with the aging demographics of the biker culture. The Mitchell Daily Republic did a piece on this last year at the conclusion of the ‘22 rally. MDR noted that the aging crowd was a factor in the “relative stagnation” of the event since it peaked in 2015, when the doors were blown off by attendance at the rally’s 75th anniversary.

A broader view from a popular industry website, Motorbiscuit, lists 10 reasons why motorcycle sales are declining, putting “Aging customers and industry” at the top of the list. The site says “the motorcycle industry has spent most of its time marketing to the boomer generation. While you can certainly still hop on a motorcycle at any age, many buyers have since moved on to other passions. Additionally, the industry deprives itself of new sales thanks to its lack of marketing for younger customers.”

No doubt public relations officers from Harley and other bike manufacturers would probably refute that observation and claim that they’re marketing like crazy to a younger generation of buyers. And no doubt they are.

https://www.sdstandardnow.com/home/last-tango-in-sturgis-not-yet-but-the-biker-culture-and-industry-are-in-a-stall-and-maybe-an-outright-decline?fbclid=IwAR2euhzIiVpn2c7EMLEG8urlmqeB_rvYMO7ya4o57nhSExf3mZ4tBdQVi8Y

 

[stevenrankin]

Article

https://www.advrider.com/the-road-to-samarra/

St.

 

[globalrider]

If you feel like you're getting mixed signals about the health of the U.S. motorcycle market, you're not wrong.

I've never thought about it much.

Could be that those under 30 no longer want to own a vehicle (Uber app) and maybe they don't want the headaches (maintenance and insurance costs, etc).

I can tell you one thing, I see more motorcycles in Europe and the Alps in one day than I see here at home all summer and that was for 27 years straight.

 

[chadhargis]

Could be that those under 30 no longer want to own a vehicle (Uber app) and maybe they don't want the headaches (maintenance and insurance costs, etc).

As the father of an 18yo heading off to college, the issue with younger people is inflation. Rent, gas, vehicles, etc. are so expensive that they can't afford basic needs as salaries haven't kept pace with inflation.

When I got out of college, my first job paid $30,000 a year and I could afford a starter home and a nice car. My first house cost $59,000 and my payment was $510 a month. Today, a basic apartment rents for $1500 a month but those entry level jobs are now paying about $45,000 a year. My college tuition, room, and board was $3200 a year...my daughters is $28,000 (thank God she has scholarships!).

We're probably looking at the first generation in the history of America that will not be able to achieve or improve the standard of living their parents had.

 

[kbasa]

As the father of an 18yo heading off to college, the issue with younger people is inflation. Rent, gas, vehicles, etc. are so expensive that they can't afford basic needs as salaries haven't kept pace with inflation.

When I got out of college, my first job paid $30,000 a year and I could afford a starter home and a nice car. My first house cost $59,000 and my payment was $510 a month. Today, a basic apartment rents for $1500 a month but those entry level jobs are now paying about $45,000 a year. My college tuition, room, and board was $3200 a year...my daughters is $28,000 (thank God she has scholarships!).

We're probably looking at the first generation in the history of America that will not be able to achieve or improve the standard of living their parents had.

I think that inflation might be part of a shorter term problem, but after we moved to a trickle down economy in the 1980s, earnings for 99% of us have remained essentially flat with no or little growth in our purchasing abilities.

When my dad bought a fairly nice house in the mid 70s in Boston, it was 2.5x his salary as a sole breadwinner middle management marketing guy. Is that still true? I'd venture that it's more that 5x someone's annual salary and that it regularly takes two breadwinners to purchase a home. When we bought our current home in 1999, purchase prices was about 4x our annual combined income. Now, 24 years later, it's worth about

It's easy to conflate inflation with loss of ability to acquire housing, but when you combine our earning power remaining essentially stagnant for the last 40+ years and recent inflationary problems, you have a very difficult problem to solve.

Turns out trickle down didn't work, did it? People are stuck and as discretionary spending dries up among the young (I never had any until I was in my 30s), they are well advised to save for a house instead of buying a motorcycle.

Your economic principles may vary from mine, that's fine. But it's hard to ignore.

 

[88bmwjeff]

I think that inflation might be part of a shorter term problem, but after we moved to a trickle down economy in the 1980s, earnings for 99% of us have remained essentially flat with no or little growth in our purchasing abilities.

When my dad bought a fairly nice house in the mid 70s in Boston, it was 2.5x his salary as a sole breadwinner middle management marketing guy. Is that still true? I'd venture that it's more that 5x someone's annual salary and that it regularly takes two breadwinners to purchase a home. When we bought our current home in 1999, purchase prices was about 4x our annual combined income. Now, 24 years later, it's worth about

It's easy to conflate inflation with loss of ability to acquire housing, but when you combine our earning power remaining essentially stagnant for the last 40+ years and recent inflationary problems, you have a very difficult problem to solve.

Turns out trickle down didn't work, did it? People are stuck and as discretionary spending dries up among the young (I never had any until I was in my 30s), they are well advised to save for a house instead of buying a motorcycle.

Your economic principles may vary from mine, that's fine. But it's hard to ignore.

I agree it's a hard problem to solve. Just as though you could lose $100 by losing $100 bill or 2 $50 bills, you could also lose it by losing 10 $10 bills or 20 $5 bills. I think the problem is more like the latter. Many small things adding up. The 1980's was also the time of the shift to a "Global Economy," which I think impacted our pay--take a lower pay or the job goes overseas. Regardless of the cause, solving it will be an uphill battle.

Looking at my son, I think cultural changes also plays into the decreasing vehicle ownership. When most of us were growing up, we were out and about by ourselves--I was out riding my bike to friends, into town, etc. I either rode the school bus or rode my bike to school. I had that freedom at an early age. With regards to my son, school buses no longer exist and most parents drop their kids off. It's not considered reasonable to let your child go out and about by themselves the same early age. My son didn't want to learn to ride a bike until he was about 12ish. He had no reason to. We took him everywhere he needed to go. He's only realized that freedom of being able to go where and when he wants to for a few years now (he's 15 now). Growing up, everyone wanted to get their driver's license ASAP. My friends and I headed out on Friday and Saturday nights. My son will not be able to do that. The licenses given to 16-year old's does not permit them to have their friends in the car. Add the higher cost of vehicle ownership, and the younger generation just doesn't have the same desire until much later in life.

 

[ramble]

Trend? Long term possibly. In my era we had bikes but earned them by working extra. The next year may show discretionary spending a thing of the past.

 

[kbasa]

I agree it's a hard problem to solve. Just as though you could lose $100 by losing $100 bill or 2 $50 bills, you could also lose it by losing 10 $10 bills or 20 $5 bills. I think the problem is more like the latter. Many small things adding up. The 1980's was also the time of the shift to a "Global Economy," which I think impacted our pay--take a lower pay or the job goes overseas. Regardless of the cause, solving it will be an uphill battle.

Looking at my son, I think cultural changes also plays into the decreasing vehicle ownership. When most of us were growing up, we were out and about by ourselves--I was out riding my bike to friends, into town, etc. I either rode the school bus or rode my bike to school. I had that freedom at an early age. With regards to my son, school buses no longer exist and most parents drop their kids off. It's not considered reasonable to let your child go out and about by themselves the same early age. My son didn't want to learn to ride a bike until he was about 12ish. He had no reason to. We took him everywhere he needed to go. He's only realized that freedom of being able to go where and when he wants to for a few years now (he's 15 now). Growing up, everyone wanted to get their driver's license ASAP. My friends and I headed out on Friday and Saturday nights. My son will not be able to do that. The licenses given to 16-year old's does not permit them to have their friends in the car. Add the higher cost of vehicle ownership, and the younger generation just doesn't have the same desire until much later in life.

That has kind of surprised me, but my older nephews wanted to learn to drive ASAP and the younger of them is a regular track day rat in his pretty well modified Miata. No bug for bikes, at least not yet, mostly because he's saving for a house and doing a really good job at it.

One thing I've noticed is that nobody just lets their kids roam around. Child abduction rates haven't changed since I was a kid in the early 60s, but that doesn't seem to matter much to current parents. I read a piece in The Atlantic a few years back talking about this and they noted that a child might reach their teens without ever having been away from direct parental supervision.

Man, I was walking to school by myself in Detroit from kindergarten when I was 3 and 4. (early start. october birthday) When I got my first decent bicycle at age 7, I would just disappear with my buddies all day long.

Being a kid these days doesn't seem like much fun when so much of their day is highly structured and rarely unsupervised.

But, I guess, every generation finds their way.

 

[stevenrankin]

Devices

I notice with a lot, not all but a lot of the young kids these days don't pay any attention to anything except the screen in front of their faces.
So far, you can't ride a motorcycle using a smart phone or game controller in real life but hey, I could sit in my living room eating pizza and drive as fast as I want with a game control. Who needs lots of money to buy a motorcycle when I Game boy will do? St.

 

[oldcamper]

It’s getting expensive to maintain some motorcycles. For potential new riders, it simply might not be worth it any more. Word is getting out it’s not an economical mode of transportation if you can’t fix it yourself.

Many of us here grew up in an environment where knowledge of things mechanical was a necessity, whether that meant fixing a 50’s car or a 40’s tractor. A motorcycle was just another machine to maintain and repair. Often, you either fixed it yourself or you walked. Those mechanical skills are not so generally common these days.

Now, dealers can and do charge $130 an hour for even routine maintenance. Something as simple as an oil change on a bike can cost $130. That’s kinda nuts when you think about it. Tires are another high-cost routine maintenance item.

To be fair, most machines are more complicated these days, and dealer involvement is sometimes the best if expensive choice. Besides labor, though, OEM parts cost are often outrageous, knowing they have a captive market. I just saved $250 by going aftermarket on a plastic fairing mount bracket, but someone without the ability to replace it themselves would not be so fortunate.

I believe the US motorcycle industry has no one but themselves to blame for declining sales. They’ve simply priced themselves out of the beginning riders market, while the older core riders are aging out.

 

[stevenrankin]

I ride

I am riding a bike that when I bought it in 84 cost a fair chunk of change out of my good income. The same bike in a 23 model is six times more expensive even given adjustment for inflation. To work on the new bikes, you have to have a lot of specialized gear. There is FAR more added nonsense on the 23 versus the 84 to go wrong.

Yeah, no wonder a 21 year old can't afford a new bike. BMW turned me off the market years ago with the push to build technology rather than reliability. I have never wanted a two wheel car and that is what the industry gave us at the expense of good intro bikes.

BMW spent a ton of money on the R18, a bike I will never buy, they continue to throw money at the GS bike. I look at the current line up and wonder why in the world don't the make an RT version of the RnineT? I was in a dealership a few months ago looking to buy a modern BMW bike.

the GS was too damned big, The RT and K bikes too damn big and expensive. Ah, the RnineT, just the right size, but alas, no fairing. I settled on a R1250R only on the way home to sour my deal by adding up the extra cost to ride a modern bike versus my old 84. Let see, tires are double the cost for the new bike, oil is triple the cost, I don't have a local dealer but a dealer costs 125 per hour versus me or my friend's shop at 80.

I have to take the new bike to the dealer if the damned electronic ABS, cruise control, ride control, traction control goes out, anything the computer decides is off, means a dealer. OR I buy a bunch of extra tools. Now the new bikes all use Torx bits, so all the Allen stuff I bought over the years is weight in the tool box. I also have to go out and buy a system to talk to the computer, then, I have to learn the language.

I have a good income, lots of young folks don't. I think my generation will be the last motorcycle generation. I only hope I can continue to ride for as long as possible. St.

 

[Visian]

I have a good income, lots of young folks don't.

To me, this is a strategic opportunity for the MOA, mainly to encourage younger riders to consider used BMWs, and then support their learning, instead of trying to sell them extras or raffle tickets.

There *are* younger riders out there, I see them all the time.

Dealers would love us for driving showroom traffic and they make a good margin on used bikes. Local clubs are critical path to this effort. Of course, no one at BMW NA earns their bonus from used bike sales, but we'd be seen as an organization that drives future new unit sales.

 

[globalrider]

To work on the new bikes, you have to have a lot of specialized gear. There is FAR more added nonsense on the 23 versus the 84 to go wrong.

Now you know why I will never part with my 1990 BMW R100 GS or my 1986 BMW R80 G/S PD, even though I have a 2016 R1200 GS Adventure.

In fact when I bought both my 2003 and 2004 R1150 GSA, I chose them without ABS. I didn't want ABS even if it was a free option and I still don't want ABS today. Unfortunately, my R1200 GS Adventure comes with it...no choice in the matter.

Looking at the service manual for my Porsche 991, it is 8256 PDF pages long. I mean, really? And I do all my own work.

As Scotty said "the more they overthink the plumbing, the easier it is to stop up the drain".

 

[Omega Man]

I am riding a bike that when I bought it in 84 cost a fair chunk of change out of my good income. The same bike in a 23 model is six times more expensive even given adjustment for inflation. To work on the new bikes, you have to have a lot of specialized gear. There is FAR more added nonsense on the 23 versus the 84 to go wrong.

Yeah, no wonder a 21 year old can't afford a new bike. BMW turned me off the market years ago with the push to build technology rather than reliability. I have never wanted a two wheel car and that is what the industry gave us at the expense of good intro bikes.

BMW spent a ton of money on the R18, a bike I will never buy, they continue to throw money at the GS bike. I look at the current line up and wonder why in the world don't the make an RT version of the RnineT? I was in a dealership a few months ago looking to buy a modern BMW bike.

the GS was too damned big, The RT and K bikes too damn big and expensive. Ah, the RnineT, just the right size, but alas, no fairing. I settled on a R1250R only on the way home to sour my deal by adding up the extra cost to ride a modern bike versus my old 84. Let see, tires are double the cost for the new bike, oil is triple the cost, I don't have a local dealer but a dealer costs 125 per hour versus me or my friend's shop at 80.

I have to take the new bike to the dealer if the damned electronic ABS, cruise control, ride control, traction control goes out, anything the computer decides is off, means a dealer. OR I buy a bunch of extra tools. Now the new bikes all use Torx bits, so all the Allen stuff I bought over the years is weight in the tool box. I also have to go out and buy a system to talk to the computer, then, I have to learn the language.

I have a good income, lots of young folks don't. I think my generation will be the last motorcycle generation. I only hope I can continue to ride for as long as possible. St.

A lot of changes are due to marketing...and keeping up with the other manufactures. A number of the issues you have have been mandated by emissions legislations both in the USA and Globally.
It also seems that owners expect to have all the gadgets on their bike that they have on/in their car.
I don't think Berlin even considers the old (s) that are aging out when they think about bike design.
When I think of pure motorcycling and the freedom of the open roads that I saw it represent, I think of this-

Not that I really like choppers but I do salute the individuality of customizing one's motorcycle.

No ABS
No computer.
A carburetor that could be fixed on the side of the road.
Chain drive....even before O-Ring chains.
No fuel gauge.

For those that enjoy the older bikes, probably best to start stocking up on any parts that are getting hard to find.....and enjoy!

OM

 

[elementist]

I'm on the safety features are there for when you fail, and while complexity has its downfalls, it has its benefits. Understand what it is, how it works (in depth, not in general) and how to utilize it as a tool in your arsenal often makes one a safer rider/driver than otherwise.

I constantly work to learn and improve my riding, but I know in an emergency situation and during panic breaking I will not beat the safety systems in a bike or car like ABS.

Some may think they can, I have my doubts but... live and let live.

As fast as cost and maintenance goes. Every generation of vehicle technology goes through the same thing. While one part of the group will not adopt, others will adopt and adapt.

3D printing, canbus hacking, mini programmable devices, experience with integrated electronics and hacker communities connected on the internet of modern day home mechanics will see these electronically controlled machines similar to how many see the carbed mechanical units of the past in time.

It's unfortunate the lack of diy/protection extended to the digital/electronic space in today's world.

 

[cajunrider]

My only problem with safety features is when the government "mandates" them.

What happened to free choice?? The government thinks I'm to stupid to make that choice and has appointed itself my nanny.

 

[pglaves]

My only problem with safety features is when the government "mandates" them.

What happened to free choice?? The government thinks I'm to stupid to make that choice and has appointed itself my nanny.

In the past ten years one third of the fatalities on rural roads in Kansas were people who were not wearing their seat belts. Even though car makers were required to install them and drivers are by law supposed to wear them, lots of folks are indeed too stupid to wear them. That is just one very simple example of the acumen of the masses.

 

[globalrider]

I constantly work to learn and improve my riding, but I know in an emergency situation and during panic breaking I will not beat the safety systems in a bike or car like ABS.

I bolded your "I" because our skill levels are not all the same. I have been in a panic situation and I threshold braked and left a very long black line with the front wheel as the rear wheel was off the ground.

And the next question is, why haven't accidents been reduced by 50+ % due to ABS. I remember reading on a forum that the member had ABS save them countless times in a year. Countless times? Buddy, that guy should take up another hobby.

 

[elementist]

I bolded your "I" because our skill levels are not all the same. I have been in a panic situation and I threshold braked and left a very long black line with the front wheel as the rear wheel was off the ground.

And the next question is, why haven't accidents been reduced by 50+ % due to ABS. I remember reading on a forum that the member had ABS save them countless times in a year. Countless times? Buddy, that guy should take up another hobby.

Sounds like you are an exceptional rider. Many claim it, few can deliver.

As I understand it, the black line means you actually have lost some braking potential vs a pulse system by locking the tire for longer periods there, and in the wet it would be a greater difference in stopping distance between your ability and ABS.

My first bike didn't have it. I encourage people to learn without it because it can fail and like everything has limits. I also encourage them to leave it on while riding on the road.

As for 50% reduction in accidents no idea what that is from or who is claiming it.

A quick google brings up:
Examining fatal crash rates for 65 motorcycle models offering ABS as an option over 2013-19, the researchers found that bikes equipped with the feature were involved in 22 percent fewer fatal crashes per 10,000 registered vehicle years. A registered vehicle year is equal to one motorcycle registered for one year


https://www.iihs.org/news/detail/largest-study-of-its-kind-strengthens-argument-for-motorcycle-abs

If you want to get into numbers we can. But like I said, live and let live. If you don't want to use it don't. Make an informed decision knowing the facts and actual numbers, and your own experience level.

But realize that the majority of riders, esp new ones aren't there skill level wise and need time and experience to get there. Bold my I's all you want but you're in more of a minority of abilities than myself I would say.

 

[drneo66]

Bret Tkacs has a very interesting video on ABS and new/experienced riders
(minute 20:30 is where he talks about the shift in 2014)