THE 2021 Montana MOA Re-Schedule (previous 2020 Great Falls Thread)

[akbeemer]

Montana is doing well compared to many other places. 394 confirmed cases and the daily increase in cases is on a week long decline. It was 19 a week ago and the past four days were 15, 12, 10 and 7. Seven people have died, only one in the past eight days. 21 people are in hospital; none are in an ICU or on a ventilator. I know this could all go to hell in an instant, but I am guardedly optimistic. My personal opinion is that people will not be ready to accept our rally of 3-5000 people as soon as June. A third of our cases are in Gallatin County where Bozeman and West Yellowstone are located. The high number is attributed to tourists, so people may be gun shy.

 

[lee]

Here's Iowa's numbers.

Current Status
Total Confirmed Cases
1,710

Total Male Cases
768

Total Female Cases
819

Child (0-17)
18

Adult (18-40)
536

Middle Aged (41-60)
675

Older Adult (61-80)
388

Elderly (81>)
93

Hospitalization data below is for the previous 24-hour period and does not include pending case investigations.
Hospitalized
142

Recovering
741

Deceased
43

18,960 tested with 16,986 testing negative.

https://coronavirus.iowa.gov/#CurrentStatus

We're in Union County.

 

[MCMXCIVRS]

My personal opinion is that people will not be ready to accept our rally of 3-5000 people as soon as June.

That is the thing that will truly determine when the economies of our countries restart, when people are comfortable and confidant it is safe to get out and close to others. Whatever politicians decide may allow businesses to reopen, but until customers return, nothing changes. An early reopening with a resultant second wave of infections will really stall confidence in the public.

 

[powwow]

Trumps grasp of the Constitution is always a source of comedy. NY, NJ, CT, RI, PA and DE Governors are setting up coordinating committees to plan the re-opening of the region. They're the elected officials responsible for the public safety, schools, services and hospitals in those states.

The Governors of CA, OR and WA just announced the same strategy for the West coast.

 

[36654]

I have three different plans for how to reach Great Falls from Vermont. In the end regional approaches to limiting the spread of the virus will likely determine which path we take. I hope the most scenic option is open when departure day arrives

Just playing devil's advocate.......you're coming from VT, a state with higher than average COVID-19 mortality (per capita deaths). Wouldn't you pose a potential threat to the people in states with, currently, lower mortality rates?

 

[36654]

That is the thing that will truly determine when the economies of our countries restart, when people are comfortable and confidant it is safe to get out and close to others. Whatever politicians decide may allow businesses to reopen, but until customers return, nothing changes. An early reopening with a resultant second wave of infections will really stall confidence in the public.

The lucky folks will be the ones that can afford to choose. The unlucky ones will be the ones that don't get a choice.

In the US, when the "emergency" provisions are lifted, the employees won't have justification to fill for unemployment and OSHA hasn't established any new workplace rules that mandate spacing or PPE.

 

[MADDOG]

Sioux Falls

Yesterday, Smithfield announced the closing of its massive food processing plant in Sioux Falls. That city is now a "hot spot" Last time I looked, I-90 runs right through that city, and would be a major route for a great majority of us Easterners to MT.
I still can't see myself spending what would amount to at least 14 days away from home. This virus has yet to hit rural America IMO, and I think that what we are doing, by thinking that the "all-clear" will happen soon is akin to rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Just saying
MADDOG BG Chair

 

[gsinnc]

The lucky folks will be the ones that can afford to choose. The unlucky ones will be the ones that don't get a choice.

In the US, when the "emergency" provisions are lifted, the employees won't have justification to fill for unemployment and OSHA hasn't established any new workplace rules that mandate spacing or PPE.

I suspect when the restrictions begin to be lifted there will be 2 camps of folks ... one camp will be those who CAN afford to travel and spend $$ and will have pent up desire to just GO ... and the anther camp will be those who have been out of work, finically impacted by the Virus and who will be hunkering down saving as much as possible and focused on getting their finances back to normal. I tell my wife every day how lucky we are to be recently retired.

 

[glenfiddich]

Just playing devil's advocate.......you're coming from VT, a state with higher than average COVID-19 mortality (per capita deaths). Wouldn't you pose a potential threat to the people in states with, currently, lower mortality rates?

Fair point. Like many largely rural states, confirmed cases here have occurred in urban clusters, with almost all of them in a couple of nursing homes. My town - four tiny villages with a total population of 1100 scattered over 35 square miles of hillside farms and hardwood forests - has taken the threat far more seriously than nearby tourist towns that have welcomed pandemic refugees (and their money) from large cities that are supposed to be under total travel bans.

That said, my post was poorly worded. I will make this trip only if the distribution and spread of COVID-19 has reached the point where Glenlivet and I can safely journey without putting others at risk. As a (retired) epidemiologist I consider that unlikely at this point, but one can always hope. If those routes so carefully laid out in Basecamp aren't used this year, there will be other opportunities.

Pete

 

[glenfiddich]

I suspect when the restrictions begin to be lifted there will be 2 camps of folks ... one camp will be those who CAN afford to travel and spend $$ and will have pent up desire to just GO ... and the anther camp will be those who have been out of work, finically impacted by the Virus and who will be hunkering down saving as much as possible and focused on getting their finances back to normal. I tell my wife every day how lucky we are to be recently retired.

We're in the same boat, Ed. I retired 18 months ago. My wife gave her two weeks notice 4 months ago and is still pitching in to help out (boss is a long time friend), but is able to work from home. For the past 25 years we saved or invested 40-60% of my salary so we could retire comfortably if not exactly in the lap of luxury. Plus we have sheep and chickens for meat, a large garden to plant once the ground thaws a bit more, and plenty of game to hunt. Seeing our portfolio take such a huge hit was a shocker, but it could be worse.

Pete

 

[36654]

I suspect when the restrictions begin to be lifted there will be 2 camps of folks ... one camp will be those who CAN afford to travel and spend $$ and will have pent up desire to just GO ... and the anther camp will be those who have been out of work, finically impacted by the Virus and who will be hunkering down saving as much as possible and focused on getting their finances back to normal. I tell my wife every day how lucky we are to be recently retired.

When you do go.......Do you think the hotel maid will have PPE or they will "sanitize" that room? Same for the folks working at that restaurant? What kind of social spacing and sanitizing will be enforced at any of the places you visit? Will the other visitors practice the same precautions as you?

When I was talking about options, I was thinking primarily of folks that are still working. They're the ones in a tight spot. Does the employee's concept of a safe workspace match that of his employer? If the employee does get sick, do they have 2~3 weeks of sick leave to self-quarantine? Do they have health insurance?

For those of us that aren't working, I'm not sure how our future finances will be impacted. Stock prices, Fed Fund rates and State/Municipal budgets will all be impacted. For those of us with 401(k) style retirement plans we'll see market fluctuations and, possibly, reductions in rate of return on our money-market/fed fund rate accounts (prior to the Pandemic, there was a push to cut the rate on the TSP guaranteed account to limit costs). For those with traditional pensions, there's going to be increased pressure on state and municipal budgets to cut those benefits. With every recession, that issue rises and the court cases to establish the legal precedents are still ongoing.

In my opinion, the economy will "open" when the people feel it's safe. Otherwise, you're going to have pockets of safe zones surrounded by questionable areas ....... much like a third world country

 

[gsinnc]

When you do go.......Do you think the hotel maid will have PPE or they will "sanitize" that room? Same for the folks working at that restaurant? What kind of social spacing and sanitizing will be enforced at any of the places you visit? Will the other visitors practice the same precautions as you?

When I was talking about options, I was thinking primarily of folks that are still working. They're the ones in a tight spot. Does the employee's concept of a safe workspace match that of his employer? If the employee does get sick, do they have 2~3 weeks of sick leave to self-quarantine? Do they have health insurance?

For those of us that aren't working, I'm not sure how our future finances will be impacted. Stock prices, Fed Fund rates and State/Municipal budgets will all be impacted. For those of us with 401(k) style retirement plans we'll see market fluctuations and, possibly, reductions in rate of return on our money-market/fed fund rate accounts (prior to the Pandemic, there was a push to cut the rate on the TSP guaranteed account to limit costs). For those with traditional pensions, there's going to be increased pressure on state and municipal budgets to cut those benefits. With every recession, that issue rises and the court cases to establish the legal precedents are still ongoing.

In my opinion, the economy will "open" when the people feel it's safe. Otherwise, you're going to have pockets of safe zones surrounded by questionable areas ....... much like a third world country

I just heard on the news the growing concern of the cities, counties, states and all other local governments regarding not only the loss of revenue but the bigger impact of the significant loss of tax revenue. There is growing pressure on the states to look to opening things up. Here in Charlotte they are discussing whether to use a tax emergency fund to help make up the short fall. So from that perspective there may be a growing desire of local towns and businesses to welcome travelers as soon as things open up. The economic impact of this shut down is a very powerful aspect.

As far as investments and 401K's where there is investment in the markets they will rebound. Yes it may take 5+ years (I suspect less) to fully recover but then if you don't have at least a 5 year time horizon you should not be invested in equities. In addition folks with equity investment outside of a tax deferred account should have been expecting a correction of 10-20%. It was waaaay overdue with the longest bull market in history, so rebalancing and raising cash levels was something most should have been doing regardless of the Coronavirus. Any US defined benefit pension plans are protected by the PBGC (Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp.) along with rules implements by ERISA (Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974)

I suspect folks will be anxious to get back to work ... yes with improved safety considerations for some. The world will certainly be different post Coronavirus and much like post 911 we will never live in the environment we had before Corona.

 

[gregfeeler]

When you do go.......Do you think the hotel maid will have PPE or they will "sanitize" that room? Same for the folks working at that restaurant? What kind of social spacing and sanitizing will be enforced at any of the places you visit? Will the other visitors practice the same precautions as you?

When I was talking about options, I was thinking primarily of folks that are still working. They're the ones in a tight spot. Does the employee's concept of a safe workspace match that of his employer? If the employee does get sick, do they have 2~3 weeks of sick leave to self-quarantine? Do they have health insurance?

For those of us that aren't working, I'm not sure how our future finances will be impacted. Stock prices, Fed Fund rates and State/Municipal budgets will all be impacted. For those of us with 401(k) style retirement plans we'll see market fluctuations and, possibly, reductions in rate of return on our money-market/fed fund rate accounts (prior to the Pandemic, there was a push to cut the rate on the TSP guaranteed account to limit costs). For those with traditional pensions, there's going to be increased pressure on state and municipal budgets to cut those benefits. With every recession, that issue rises and the court cases to establish the legal precedents are still ongoing.

In my opinion, the economy will "open" when the people feel it's safe. Otherwise, you're going to have pockets of safe zones surrounded by questionable areas ....... much like a third world country

All good points, but then put these things into the larger context of how other countries are doing. To the degree our foreign trading partners are in similar or worse conditions, it will be all the more difficult for many U.S. businesses to recover. We need customers for our products, and we need to purchase raw materials and sub-components, as do they. Someday there will be many, many Economics PhD thesis papers written about the Great Pandemic of 2020.

 

[gsinnc]

All good points, but then put these things into the larger context of how other countries are doing. To the degree our foreign trading partners are in similar or worse conditions, it will be all the more difficult for many U.S. businesses to recover. We need customers for our products, and we need to purchase raw materials and sub-components, as do they. Someday there will be many, many Economics PhD thesis papers written about the Great Pandemic of 2020.

 

[motodan]

Here's Iowa's numbers.

Current Status
Total Confirmed Cases
1,710

Total Male Cases
768

Total Female Cases
819

Child (0-17)
18

Adult (18-40)
536

Middle Aged (41-60)
675

Older Adult (61-80)
388

Elderly (81>)
93

Hospitalization data below is for the previous 24-hour period and does not include pending case investigations.
Hospitalized
142

Recovering
741

Deceased
43

18,960 tested with 16,986 testing negative.

https://coronavirus.iowa.gov/#CurrentStatus

We're in Union County.

Me thinks this listing must be in error. Everyone knows Middle Aged is (41-79) and scales up one year, every year. This is per Motorcycle Rider's School of Epidemiology.

 

[gregfeeler]

Me thinks this listing must be in error. Everyone knows Middle Aged is (41-79) and scales up one year, every year. This is per Motorcycle Rider's School of Epidemiology.

Correct.

 

[flyhi2cfar]

Imagine... this from 21 days ago and it remains our situation.

March 25, 2020
Thank you for registering for the 2020 National Rally in Great Falls. I know you are ready to Saddle Up & Ride and put the current health crisis in your rear-view mirror. Our Rally Team is working hard to make sure we are ready for you in Great Falls and I want to share with you some thoughts about the National Rally.
Obviously, there is much uncertainty about the future. The health situation is very serious and of great concern to our members. I recognize the severity of your concerns for your health, safety and future travel plans. I want you to know that we will take every precaution to deliver a safe and healthy rally in June. If the situation forces alternate plans or makes a safe environment impossible, we will adjust so that our members can feel secure in the Rally environment. As of today, we have every intention of putting on a great show for you June 25-28, 2020 and we are working hard to make that a reality.
Currently, I expect to have a much clearer picture of the future by May 15. I understand that your personal situation or tolerances may not allow you to wait for a decision. If that is the case for you, our refund policy allows for a full refund of your registration fees before May 25. If you need to make a decision today for your own peace of mind, please contact the member services team at (864) 438-0962 or membership@bmwmoa.org and we will be glad to accommodate you.
I want to assure you that we will make the best decisions about the Rally with our members health and financial well being in mind. The MOA has always been about community, friendship and fellowship and our greatest responsibility at the Rally is to keep our friends and family healthy and safe.
For all of us, I am hopeful for good news in the coming weeks. Until then, please be safe and stay healthy. I look forward to seeing all of you at the National!
Sincerely,

Ted Moyer
Executive Director
BMW Motorcycle Owners of America[/QUOTE]

 

[36654]

All good points, but then put these things into the larger context of how other countries are doing. To the degree our foreign trading partners are in similar or worse conditions, it will be all the more difficult for many U.S. businesses to recover. We need customers for our products, and we need to purchase raw materials and sub-components, as do they. Someday there will be many, many Economics PhD thesis papers written about the Great Pandemic of 2020.

What I notice when I read about the European countries opening up is, in many cases they shut-down harder than we did and their opening up is similar the restrictions many of us live with.......going to the grocery store, hardware store and many manufacturing and construction projects are considered essential or low risk (construction). So, non-life sustaining retail and the restaurant trade seems to be the directly impacted industries, while the remainder of the travel sector is dealing with the downturn. Schools are closed, K thru University.

So, parts of the economy can be adapted to new safety protocols (which we hope someone generates), but others won't. I'm pretty sure COVID-19 has hastened the death of the mall and a lot of brick & mortar retailers. Large gatherings like conventions and sporting events (100,000+ screaming (spitting) fans) aren't going to happen without a vaccine, so the restaurant and hotel trade is going to suffer. We'll either adapt with new approaches or do the same old, same old and expect the employees to live with it. The same old, same old will be the cheapest approach.

 

[gregfeeler]

March 25, 2020
Thank you for registering for the 2020 National Rally in Great Falls. I know you are ready to Saddle Up & Ride and put the current health crisis in your rear-view mirror. Our Rally Team is working hard to make sure we are ready for you in Great Falls and I want to share with you some thoughts about the National Rally.
Obviously, there is much uncertainty about the future. The health situation is very serious and of great concern to our members. I recognize the severity of your concerns for your health, safety and future travel plans. I want you to know that we will take every precaution to deliver a safe and healthy rally in June. If the situation forces alternate plans or makes a safe environment impossible, we will adjust so that our members can feel secure in the Rally environment. As of today, we have every intention of putting on a great show for you June 25-28, 2020 and we are working hard to make that a reality.
Currently, I expect to have a much clearer picture of the future by May 15. I understand that your personal situation or tolerances may not allow you to wait for a decision. If that is the case for you, our refund policy allows for a full refund of your registration fees before May 25. If you need to make a decision today for your own peace of mind, please contact the member services team at (864) 438-0962 or membership@bmwmoa.org and we will be glad to accommodate you.
I want to assure you that we will make the best decisions about the Rally with our members health and financial well being in mind. The MOA has always been about community, friendship and fellowship and our greatest responsibility at the Rally is to keep our friends and family healthy and safe.
For all of us, I am hopeful for good news in the coming weeks. Until then, please be safe and stay healthy. I look forward to seeing all of you at the National!
Sincerely,

Ted Moyer
Executive Director
BMW Motorcycle Owners of America

It essentially says in Ted's message not to expect anything further until May 15th, which is still a month away. Just sayin'

 

[flyhi2cfar]

It essentially says in Ted's message not to expect anything further until May 15th, which is still a month away. Just sayin'

Exactly true, and with all that's transpired in just the last week... a full month from today, will be a long time.

Our Nation, Canada... were not out of the Great Falls possibility yet. Many factors in play; testing likely at the forefront.

Then when/if all else works out, our Club has the economic factors to consider... contract satisfaction, attendance concerns, and vendor participation to name a few.

Less folks in line at the shower trailer, or will there be even MORE... because folks don't want to use lodging?