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Of course you are right.
One thing that changes the likelihood is how desirable is the riding location. For instance, if I only considered Colorado, I'm sure that the stats would be highly skewed by the fact that a lot of out of state riders come to Colorado because the riding is so good. And, a lot of those riders are interested in non-paved roads and twisty curvy roads which appeal to BMW riders.
Our experiences are subjective and so they aren't statistically valid, but I would still say the chances of seeing a BMW while on the road would be greater in Colorado than Illinois, home of the Tail of the Mouse(TM) which has 11 curves in 318 miles.
I'm suggesting that you'll encounter more BMW M/C where MOA members live. It appears that you're suggesting a greater chance of seeing BMW MC's in the areas where their owners may vacation.
So, if you want to see tall, blue-eyed blondes, do you go to Sweden or the beach?
I wish they all could be California girls!
I think a key fact that has been raised is the average BMW owner probably puts on more miles than the average rider.