THE 2021 Montana MOA Re-Schedule (previous 2020 Great Falls Thread)

[flyhi2cfar]

I'll tell you what I've found that's exceptionally accurate, as it pertains to "short term" prediction for ride/travel planning.

It's the NWS 10 day Forecast for location/region.

 

[36654]

I'll tell you what I've found that's exceptionally accurate, as it pertains to "short term" prediction for ride/travel planning.

It's the NWS 10 day Forecast for location/region.

I'm a fan of the NWS. I'm also local enough to Accuweather to know that they (Accuweather) shouldn't be running the NWS.

 

[lee]

It's the NWS 10 day Forecast for location/region.

I never trust a 10 day forecast.
Aug 31st the forecast for Gunnison Colorado showed it would be 69 and partly cloudy.


This is what we got on Sep 8th.

 

[boogerman]

I never trust a 10 day forecast.
Aug 31st the forecast for Gunnison Colorado showed it would be 69 and partly cloudy.


This is what we got on Sep 8th.

View attachment 80905

View attachment 80906

Don’t tell me your afraid of a little dusting of snow. Come on man.....show a little backbone.

 

[lee]

Don’t tell me your afraid of a little dusting of snow. Come on man.....show a little backbone.

 

[akbeemer]

Several years ago the head of the NWS held a press conference in advance of a hurricane hitting the US. He was asked about the chances of the hurricane hitting a specific city. His response was that the chances of the city being hit were 50:50 and "that is what a billion dollars a year gets you."

 

[Omega Man]

I find TV “weathermen” are really “weather personalities”. I put forth the if there was a three foot tall ugly troll that could predict the weather perfectly, they would still not be hired.
It seems that they are all watching the same radar and it also seems they are all subscribed to the same weather service for the “details”.
I would rather have better weather prognosticators than advice that “I will need a jacket this morning””. Who knows, maybe most of the people need the jacket advice
I think it was Mr. Dylan that said “You don’t need a weatherman to tell which the wind blows”.
OM

 

[ridesolo]

I once ran into a USAF weather forecaster I knew who was going on and on about the great rainstorm we were having. I said to him, "You like rain?" He said, "No, I hate rain, I'm happy when my forecasts are correct!"

The best one is the forecast of 50% chance of rain. Imagine it, somebody's getting paid to say, "It might rain and it might not."

 

[flyhi2cfar]

I'll bet you in Gunnison CO that date;
that within a few minutes of the first hour of the day OR moments before midnight as the day finished... it was about 67 and mostly cloudy.

Wherein... they didn't miss by much (at some point). Yeah, it's that hourly thing that is a problem. That and mountain conditions!

 

[Rinty]

Hey Lee, I actually rode on a bit of ice last week. Left my annual service a bit late....

All was well on the main roads, but the community centre around the corner has big trees around it, which block the sun.

 

[akbeemer]

Potomac, MT, -29.2 degrees last night.

 

[gregfeeler]

Potomac, MT, -29.2 degrees last night.

I assume that brass monkeys are extinct there?

 

[akbeemer]

I assume that brass monkeys are extinct there?

As are witch’s brassieres.

I may have to retract my claim about the -29 degrees in Potomac. Breaking news indicates the report was a claim made on Facebook and attributed to a private home weather station. I do not participate in The Facebook so the information is a second hand report of an alleged claim on Facebook that was attributed to a person who had a home weather station. Our dedicated team of fact checkers is on it....

 

[lee]

I find TV “weathermen” are really “weather personalities”. I put forth the if there was a three foot tall ugly troll that could predict the weather perfectly, they would still not be hired.

Same thing for news anchors

 

[lee]

I'll bet you in Gunnison CO that date;
that within a few minutes of the first hour of the day OR moments before midnight as the day finished... it was about 67 and mostly cloudy.

Wherein... they didn't miss by much (at some point). Yeah, it's that hourly thing that is a problem. That and mountain conditions!

The weather can be difficult to predict in the Rockies.
Sometimes you get lucky and get on the correct side of the mountain for good weather.

 

[pglaves]

As are witch’s brassieres.

I may have to retract my claim about the -29 degrees in Potomac. Breaking news indicates the report was a claim made on Facebook and attributed to a private home weather station. I do not participate in The Facebook so the information is a second hand report of an alleged claim on Facebook that was attributed to a person who had a home weather station. Our dedicated team of fact checkers is on it....

We have a similar but opposite problem here in southwest Texas. Somebody will have a thermometer laying on the pavement out in the sun or even inside their car and on a nice 95 degree day will report that it is 127 at their house. Then several people repeat that on their tweeters and pretty soon the county emergency services guy, recently retired from his job breaking beads at the tire shop, sends out a weather alert.

 

[lee]

Hey Lee, I actually rode on a bit of ice last week. Left my annual service a bit late....

All was well on the main roads, but the community centre around the corner has big trees around it, which block the sun.

A couple times we have ridden in snow where we left a track.
We didn't like it

 

[akbeemer]

We have a similar but opposite problem here in southwest Texas. Somebody will have a thermometer laying on the pavement out in the sun or even inside their car and on a nice 95 degree day will report that it is 127 at their house. Then several people repeat that on their tweeters and pretty soon the county emergency services guy, recently retired from his job breaking beads at the tire shop, sends out a weather alert.

Well, I can report that it was -13 at our place this morning. But all is not gloom and doom, temperatures will be in in the 40s and 50s the next ten days with lows around freezing or above. At least the great grasshopper plague of 2020 is over.

 

[36654]

I find TV “weathermen” are really “weather personalities”. I put forth the if there was a three foot tall ugly troll that could predict the weather perfectly, they would still not be hired.
It seems that they are all watching the same radar and it also seems they are all subscribed to the same weather service for the “details”.
I would rather have better weather prognosticators than advice that “I will need a jacket this morning””. Who knows, maybe most of the people need the jacket advice
I think it was Mr. Dylan that said “You don’t need a weatherman to tell which the wind blows”.
OM

For over 30-yrs I worked next door to a highly ranked meterology school, in fact, the place that spawned Accuweather. In all those years, I never saw a stream of buxom, coiffed, small waisted females entering the building that housed the meteorology department. Based on this completely anecdotal observation, I really, really doubt the person on Channel X news has a meterology degree.

 

[Rinty]

As are witch’s brassieres.

I may have to retract my claim about the -29 degrees in Potomac. Breaking news indicates the report was a claim made on Facebook and attributed to a private home weather station....

So the social media disinformation problem has now spread to the weather reporting sector.

I have a relative who is a doomscroller and who sends us crazy e mails. Some folks get really distressed by this stuff.