You may be correct however, you’d now need a poll on how many, of all this specific bike’s owners with reportable failures, even saw your thread and took the time to respond, to come even close to having any valid applicability toward a somewhat believable failure ratio.
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Only Found 7 out of 100,000s 310 Engines Produced: G310 Engine Failures (Query Closed)
- Thread starter JerryG
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Plus there are tens of thousands of 310 riders that never go on line, so I question the value of this "survey". Saying 7 failures out of a 100,000 bikes is only accurate if all 100,000 responded.
I have no clue how many 310 riders there are here, the 310 forum and ADV Rider, but a few hundred would not be out of line, maybe less than 1,000, I don't know, but far from the 100,000 mentioned. even if there are 1,000 riders between the forums, plus not all speak out, they would be 7 failures out of 1,000, maybe.
JerryG
Member
Hi Daniel,
I'm not a statistician, but I'm sure that staying at a Holiday Inn Express (several times) while conducting this survey made up for all of it's statistical failings.
Kidding aside, thanks for bringing this up; it's a good nudge that I should have provided a better summary.
Background on me: I am a retired military operations research / systems analyst (ORSA) with a B.S. in Chemical Engineering from Texas A&M, an M.S. in ORSA Engineering from the Naval Postgraduate School, an M.S. in National Resource Strategy from the Industrial College of the Armed Forces at the National Defense University, and more than thirty years of experience doing and supervising analysis. I served in the Army for thirty-one years, retiring as a Colonel and nine years as a federal civilian, retiring as a GS15.
Though your suggestion is not viable, your point is correct. Given that I could not get 310 engine data from TVS and BMW (I did ask), to conduct a statistically valid survey, I would have to survey either all 310 owners or 310 owners randomly selected from the pool of all 310 engine owners. This is a common problem in military analysis (potential or actual enemies rarely respond to data requests; intel rarely provides complete data). When you cannot do statistically rigorous analysis, you can still gather data and consider what it suggests or indicates.
In this case, I know five things: (1) there are more than 5,000 members on the forum where I posted my request; (2) there were only seven engine failures reported in response to my request; (3) TVS and BMW are still selling new motorcycles with the 310 engine; (4) BMW announced that it is adding a 310RR variant to the current BMW 310R and 310GS lineup; and (5) BMW has not issued any engine related recalls during the two years I've owned my 310GS.
Next comes analyst judgement. I believe that (1) and (2) indicate an engine failure rate on the order of of 7/5000 = 0.14% = 14/100ths of 1%. It could be more; it could be less; but the fact is we have no data to suggest any other estimate. On the other hand, we do have indicators that the actual failure rate is low: (3), (4), and (5) above indicate that TVS and BMW still like the 310 engine; if the actual failure rate was high, this would be very unlikely. Given all of this and my own 24,686 miles of experience with my 310GS, I'm quite satisfied that the 310 engine is reliable; that's my judgement as an analyst.
Next comes decision-maker judgement: Each current and potential 310 owner has to decide for themselves if I'm right or I'm wrong and by how much. As the decision-maker for my own 310GS: I'm planning to ride my 310GS on a series of western BDRs going to and from the BMW National Rally this summer plus I'm planning to ride Copper Canyon and Baja this fall.
S/
JerryG
JerryG
Member
#1 I would posit that most 310 owners who experienced a 310 engine failure would search online to see if 310 engine failures were common. I selected the keywords in my query with such people in mind.
#2 I doubt anyone would set up an engine production line for just a few thousand engines. I would expect the break-even point to be at least tens of thousands and I would expect significant profit to be at least 100,000. If someone with automotive/small engine production experience reads this, please chime in. But it really doesn't matter: I did not claim to know or use production numbers in my summary in #23 above.
#3 Even if it's 7 out of 1,000 = 0.70% = 70/100 of 1%, my conclusions in #23 above would be the same.
Please understand: I am NOT selling this. I didn't do it to convince you or anyone else. I only did this because I came across someone who personally experienced a 310 engine failure (it was actually one couple with multiple engine failures). I did this so I could decide whether or not I should give up on my 310GS. I shared it so others could use it or not as they see fit.
Cheers,
JerryG
P.S. Pic is me and my 310GS after completing the Trans America Trail from Cape Hatteras, NC, to Port Orford, OR, on July 23rd. I completed that ride by coming back to Western North Carolina via the TAT Minnesota Spur and BHBDR-X, closing out 2023 with 24,686 miles on my 2022 G310GS. I would have ridden more, but rotator cuff surgery precluded my late-summer and fall plans.
Thank you, I now know more about you than a useful (for what?) failure ratio. I‘ve done some cyphering over the decades and spent my career guessing mortality and mortality of individuals. Therefore, I’d start with asking how many of the 5,000 mentioned are either now dead or in an assisted-living facility and build from there.
Again, all I am saying is the "survey is flawed. You have no way of knowing how many people that ride a 310 even have internet or even care to post about it. You saying there were 5,000 people on an internet forum where this as discussed and only seven people reported engine failures means zero. First, you can not be positive everyone read the comments and second, cared enough about it to respond. Saying 7 failures out of 100,000 is a WAG. Heck even saying 7 out of 1,000 is a WAG as you have no way of proving the numbers. Heck, it might be 7 out of 500! We just don't know.
As for "selling" this, I don't care. I don't own a 310, and good chance I never will. I am just saying your "results" are flawed, and with your history with the military, and post military employment I am surprised you even posted it!
About as much accuracy at this,
Gee Colonel don‘t retreat now.
brownie0486
Well-known member
This thread has been interesting and entertaining, to say the least.
JerryG
Member
You have uncovered my true intent: To entertain by getting weak-minded critics to expose their limited grasp of the multi-verse where the G310GS rules. Omega Man has the right idea: Bring on the popcorn. I would post an emoji, but there isn't one for maniacal laughter.
Today’s analysis (of today’s postings as of 4:10 EST) indicates of five participants, two are now on an ignore list. Can we now assume 20% of all participants on this thread will eventually be ignored? And how will this affect the price of cheese in China and Decatur, Illinois? Perhaps a poll should be initiated? Carry on.
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