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Is Harley-Davidson Dying?

Think of it as “The Harley Hajj.” They wobble their way there from all over the world.

Do their trailers wobble too? :)

The last time we went to Sturgis Voni made me promise not to stop for every bike beside the road or we never would get there. I agreed. We did pass a few breakdowns but since there were always other bikes and sag wagons there I didn't feel bad doing it.

We parked in a grocery store parking lot a couple blocks off main street and started to walk downtown. We got to the sidewalk and there was an attractive bikini clad young lady standing on the sidewalk, in her high heels, crying, and a guy kicking the rear brake caliper on his bike which had been pulled up onto the sidewalk to get it out of traffic. I could smell the rear brake - it smelled like a semi coming down off Beartooth pass.

I asked what was wrong and he said the brake was locked up. Duh. He said he had unloaded the bike (from his trailer) and the brake had locked up. It had done so on his six-block ride to main street. I asked if he had any tools and he said yes. He got his tool roll off the front fender. It contained - honest to God - a pair of slip joint pliers, a 10 or 12 inch Crescent wrench, a wooden handled screw driver and a claw hammer. A claw hammer! :) I told him and his bikini clad lady to stand back and used his Crescent wrench to open the bleed valve on the rear caliper. With a spptt it shot out a little very hot brake fluid and released the pressure on the brake. (Don't gloat yet. I learned this trick when a friend's /7 suffered the same fate going down the highway.)

I asked him when the rear brake free play had been checked. He gave me a shrug and a blank stare. I used his Crescent wrench and my Leatherman Tool to adjust the brake pedal so there was actually some free play instead of none. I didn't know the spec, but did know some was better than none. He and his lady friend rode off, going the block and a half to cruise down Mainstreet. We wandered over to watch.
 
...The last time we went to Sturgis ...there was an attractive bikini clad young lady ... We wandered over to watch.

I think you captured the essence of the Harley mystique, and why the brand has staying power. Scenes like that just don't happen at the annual gathering of the EVO Brake Lovers Club of America. :)
 
I get a kick out of these conversations. Think about the shear numbers of motorcycles Harley has sold over the years. Harley sold more bikes in the USA in 2007 than BMW sells in ten years. Twenty years ago BMW imported just a few thousand units into the USA, maybe 5,000 bikes.

If I want to find a bunch of guys to run from Fargo to Duluth and back for lunch I know a bunch of Harley riders that will go any time. BMW riders in the area? Good luck finding one or two.

Also, because of the huge numbers of Harleys sold I believe you can easily find idoits or doctors and lawyers, even easier at a hike rally such as Sturgis. Count the brands. How many Harleys versus BMW?

I used to ride down to a party in Tennessee every year. There were every types from lower income to doctors that showed up. Most riding Harleys. Many rode long distances to get there. Some from either coast, Canada, you name it. One guy left Tennessee Sunday morning and headed to Duluth, up the north shore, into Canada and was heading to New York. He had meeting Wednesday noon in New York. 3,500 miles in a bit over three days, on a Harley.

I still believe it is the rider, more so than the brand of bike.
 
{SNIP}...I still believe it is the rider, more so than the brand of bike.{SNIP}

Absolutely. IMHO true for all riders and all bikes. Still, in a way I admire the Harley escript de corps. I got a "Harley" button (non-logoed) many years ago which reads, "Better a sister in a whore house than a brother on a Honda." :rofl
 
I get a kick out of these conversations. >snip<
I still believe it is the rider, more so than the brand of bike.

So do I. Last I looked a few years ago HD outsold BMW 20 to 1. So a 5% conquest sale capture would still leave it 19 to 2, and BMW sales would double. It won't happen but is interesting math.

HD sales are down - some say way down. BMW sales are up. I am not sure how this plays out in the future.

I live on the highway which leads to the west entrance of Big Bend National Park. As I sit at my computer I have a full view of the highway. Here HD bikes going past the house outnumber other bikes somewhat. I haven't counted. BMW GS and other "adventure" bikes are also heavily included (no pun intended) due to the dirt roads in the National and State parks. We also get a lot of small street legal dirt bikes. This is not a "pass through" area. You need to want to get here to be here. Only fools get here by accident, but some do. :)

There was, for example, the Congressman's Chief of Staff and staff who wandered around the dirt roads on the Terlingua Ranch looking for a condo in Lajitas, 42 miles away, as they followed the erroneous directions of their GPS. They finally stopped to ask directions and get some water. I told them how to stay on the highway to Lajitas. The Congressman kindly sent us a flag that had flown over the Capitol in thanks for rescuing his staff retreat. Living in the sticks can sometimes be quite amusing. :dance
 
I watched a video a while back and that is what he said. We will all go over to electric voluntarily. It will get to the point where between maintenance and gas prices we will gladly go electric. He wasn't claiming gas prices will go up, just that electric cars cost to buy and maintain will be much less than what we are paying for a gasser. Tesla has a goal of a million mile car with zero maintenance, other than tires, and it will cost less than most cars in today's market.

I've got a plug-in hybrid car and I love it - over more than 30K miles it is averaging more than 95 mpg. That's fantastic. However, it is not fully electric and does not suffer from range issues. How are you going to tour on an electric motorcycle? You can't. You would need a range of 400+ miles and have every motel provide charging stations.

This guy has some commentary on Harley. The local bike shop sells Harleys, Honda, and Suzuki. My "local" BMW bike shop, @75 miles from me has closed. I would not like to see the local Harley dealer close shop. I like to stop in and socialize there and I get my tires there.

<iframe width="994" height="559" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SynO6LU-tuo" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Harry
 
Harley will have to do some downsizing, but they will not go under. SARS-CoV-2 will soon be responsible for the airline industry doing some downsizing of its own, albeit for a different reason.

E.
 
Dealer experience

I'm a new rider. Did my MSF course at a Harley dealer in central NJ last year. Of course, in exchange for doing these courses (which I'm sure is a money-loser for them), they get access to new riders with the chance to sell you on the brand. Admittedly, I didn't have much interest in HD's, but tried to keep an open mind and hear what they had to say. The instruction was excellent; two very experienced, knowledgeable and patient instructors, who were thankfully not part of the effort to sell motorcycles.

Towards the end of the course, the Street Rod caught my eye. At that point I wasn't really sure what kind of bike I wanted. When I talked to one of the salesmen about it, he first suggested that it's a nice bike for a woman. When I made it clear that didn't bother me, he tried to steer me towards the Sportster as a starter bike, and suggested I'd want to trade it in within a year for a "real bike".

Whatever changes HD is trying to accomplish, they are going to have a tough time getting their dealers on board. The manager of the dealer was a nice woman. She was knowledgeable, helpful, and very welcoming. The salesmen (yes they were all men) were another story. Also, it's tough to not be turned off by the absurdity of some of the Harley merchandise. The place feels a lot like a theme park gift shop. Not to mention the dated, offensive chauvinistic stuff printed on various shirts, hats, mugs etc..

I'm 50 years-old, and have enough disposable income to buy expensive motorcycles. Harley needs people like me to survive. They have a ways to go before I'd have any interest.

I ended up with a G310R (great fun-should've kept it), quickly traded for an F750GS (mistake), traded for an R1250GS (fantastic- keeping this one a long time).
 
I've got a plug-in hybrid car and I love it - over more than 30K miles it is averaging more than 95 mpg. That's fantastic. However, it is not fully electric and does not suffer from range issues. How are you going to tour on an electric motorcycle? You can't. You would need a range of 400+ miles and have every motel provide charging stations.

Harry

I predict that battery and electric motor technology will provide 400 mile range bikes in as soon as six years, but within ten. Not all that far away considering we've been using internal combustion engines for over a century. An e-bike with that range would cover just about *all* day rides, days - if not weeks - of town commuting, and the touring range for over 50% of MOA members. In 2015 the Board Events Committee sent a survey invitation to every member with an email address. We got back over 7,500 completed responses. When asked "What is your preferred one-way riding distance to an event?" 18.72% said up to 250 miles, and 36.82% said up to 500 miles. That's 55.54% who are most comfortable with a range of 500 miles, or less. And, I'll bet many of those split such a trip into one and a half, or two days. Plenty of time for a recharge.
 
I predict that battery and electric motor technology will provide 400 mile range bikes in as soon as six years, but within ten. Not all that far away considering we've been using internal combustion engines for over a century. An e-bike with that range would cover just about *all* day rides, days - if not weeks - of town commuting, and the touring range for over 50% of MOA members. In 2015 the Board Events Committee sent a survey invitation to every member with an email address. We got back over 7,500 completed responses. When asked "What is your preferred one-way riding distance to an event?" 18.72% said up to 250 miles, and 36.82% said up to 500 miles. That's 55.54% who are most comfortable with a range of 500 miles, or less. And, I'll bet many of those split such a trip into one and a half, or two days. Plenty of time for a recharge.

Except where do you recharge? With my Prius Prime, I charge with a cord provided with the car. I can hook it to any standard outlet, even a 15 amp outlet. I had an electrician install an outdoor outlet close to my driveway. On longer trips, I have brought my charge cord...but had no place to plug it in. It draws 11 amps. Motels will not provide an outlet to plug into. And that's just an outlet. I did stay at one motel that featured charging stations, which charge my car, for example, in half the time as hooking it to a standard outlet. That is why I chose that motel, to reward them for providing a charging station. But that motel is in a distinct minority - almost no motels provide charging stations at the present time. Now picture a big motorcycle rally with a couple of thousand riders. Will there be thousands of outlets or charging stations? No, there won't. If you have no place to charge your vehicle, then you can't take an electric vehicle on tour. There just aren't enough charging stations out there to allow for touring with an electric vehicle.
 
I predict that battery and electric motor technology will provide 400 mile range bikes in as soon as six years, but within ten. Not all that far away considering we've been using internal combustion engines for over a century. An e-bike with that range would cover just about *all* day rides, days - if not weeks - of town commuting, and the touring range for over 50% of MOA members. In 2015 the Board Events Committee sent a survey invitation to every member with an email address. We got back over 7,500 completed responses. When asked "What is your preferred one-way riding distance to an event?" 18.72% said up to 250 miles, and 36.82% said up to 500 miles. That's 55.54% who are most comfortable with a range of 500 miles, or less. And, I'll bet many of those split such a trip into one and a half, or two days. Plenty of time for a recharge.

Another possible solution will be "supercapacitor" or "ultracapacitor" technology, which may someday replace batteries in electric vehicles. The big advantage? These devices charge almost instantly, faster than filling a gas tank. The risk? They can discharge just as fast. The real challenge is making these things safe enough, small enough and inexpensive enough for a motorcycle while still providing a reasonable range. But we may get there.
 
I've got a plug-in hybrid car and I love it - over more than 30K miles it is averaging more than 95 mpg. That's fantastic. However, it is not fully electric and does not suffer from range issues. How are you going to tour on an electric motorcycle? You can't. You would need a range of 400+ miles and have every motel provide charging stations.

This guy has some commentary on Harley. The local bike shop sells Harleys, Honda, and Suzuki. My "local" BMW bike shop, @75 miles from me has closed. I would not like to see the local Harley dealer close shop. I like to stop in and socialize there and I get my tires there.

<iframe width="994" height="559" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SynO6LU-tuo" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Harry

After the good experience we've had with my wife's Prius, I'm strongly considering the PHEV BMW 3-series as my first sedan purchase in 14-yrs. I've always had manual transmission cars in the past, but those are no longer available unless you buy some steroid monster with ground effects.
 
Except where do you recharge? With my Prius Prime, I charge with a cord provided with the car. I can hook it to any standard outlet, even a 15 amp outlet. I had an electrician install an outdoor outlet close to my driveway. On longer trips, I have brought my charge cord...but had no place to plug it in. It draws 11 amps. Motels will not provide an outlet to plug into. And that's just an outlet. I did stay at one motel that featured charging stations, which charge my car, for example, in half the time as hooking it to a standard outlet. That is why I chose that motel, to reward them for providing a charging station. But that motel is in a distinct minority - almost no motels provide charging stations at the present time. Now picture a big motorcycle rally with a couple of thousand riders. Will there be thousands of outlets or charging stations? No, there won't. If you have no place to charge your vehicle, then you can't take an electric vehicle on tour. There just aren't enough charging stations out there to allow for touring with an electric vehicle.

Naturally, there will have to be expansion of charging stations, just as gasoline stations had to be built in the millions to provide for coast-to-coast ICE travel. But, charging stations are a snap to install compared to building a filling station, even if you go back to the days before EPA requirements. The conversion to electric vehicles has a big chicken and egg component. The more EV's the more charging stations. The more charging stations, the more EV sales. Improvement in EV range and reduction will effectively multiply the number of charging stations.

We are talking about what is coming, not what's here, yet. But, it's coming. I just hope that there remains enough of a gasoline distributor network to support my ICE powered motorcycles for as long as I can ride. :dance


A place to find a charging station: https://www.plugshare.com/
 
I'm a new rider. Did my MSF course at a Harley dealer in central NJ last year. Of course, in exchange for doing these courses (which I'm sure is a money-loser for them), they get access to new riders with the chance to sell you on the brand. Admittedly, I didn't have much interest in HD's, but tried to keep an open mind and hear what they had to say. The instruction was excellent; two very experienced, knowledgeable and patient instructors, who were thankfully not part of the effort to sell motorcycles.

Towards the end of the course, the Street Rod caught my eye. At that point I wasn't really sure what kind of bike I wanted. When I talked to one of the salesmen about it, he first suggested that it's a nice bike for a woman. When I made it clear that didn't bother me, he tried to steer me towards the Sportster as a starter bike, and suggested I'd want to trade it in within a year for a "real bike".

Whatever changes HD is trying to accomplish, they are going to have a tough time getting their dealers on board. The manager of the dealer was a nice woman. She was knowledgeable, helpful, and very welcoming. The salesmen (yes they were all men) were another story. Also, it's tough to not be turned off by the absurdity of some of the Harley merchandise. The place feels a lot like a theme park gift shop. Not to mention the dated, offensive chauvinistic stuff printed on various shirts, hats, mugs etc..

I'm 50 years-old, and have enough disposable income to buy expensive motorcycles. Harley needs people like me to survive. They have a ways to go before I'd have any interest.

I ended up with a G310R (great fun-should've kept it), quickly traded for an F750GS (mistake), traded for an R1250GS (fantastic- keeping this one a long time).

You know, you can get a long sleeve tee-shirt that looks just like a full upper body tattoo........:)

BTW - welcome to the Forum
 
Based on what I see in the Idaho area, numerically there are far more Harley riders than any other brand. However, since there are about as many Harley's as all other brands combined, that is not surprising. We who ride one of the "other brands" tend to make too much of the cruiser posers, but I've met a large number of long distance Harley riders out in the middle of nowhere.

I was referring to the quote of "more wintertime riders anywhere" which is pure BS.
 
Naturally, there will have to be expansion of charging stations, just as gasoline stations had to be built in the millions to provide for coast-to-coast ICE travel. But, charging stations are a snap to install compared to building a filling station, even if you go back to the days before EPA requirements. The conversion to electric vehicles has a big chicken and egg component. The more EV's the more charging stations. The more charging stations, the more EV sales. Improvement in EV range and reduction will effectively multiply the number of charging stations.

We are talking about what is coming, not what's here, yet. But, it's coming. I just hope that there remains enough of a gasoline distributor network to support my ICE powered motorcycles for as long as I can ride. :dance


A place to find a charging station: https://www.plugshare.com/

Using an AC system, charging time will always be a challenge. However, if you're a suburbanite or have short commutes, over-night home-charging on a short "all-electric" range PHEV may cover most of your driving needs.
 
Except where do you recharge? Motels will not provide an outlet to plug into. There just aren't enough charging stations out there to allow for touring with an electric vehicle.

For motel outlets go to North Dakota or other northern states where many/most local cars have plug-in engine heaters. When I was a kid they were called "headbolt" heaters. Then they became "tank" heaters. And heating pads underneath batteries in battery boxes.

You are right there are not enough plug ins - yet.

And maybe, just maybe, the manner in which people enjoy their motorcycles may not be fixed in stone. Already motorcycle camping rallies are down in attendance. Motel rallies (Getaways) are up in appeal. The multi-day "gypsy runs" of yesteryear seem long gone. And many, many electric motorcycles does not preclude the continuation of some internal combustion motorcycles. I doubt I could do an Iron Butt Rally on an electric bike. But I sure could go get groceries or have a nice Sunday afternoon ride if I could go a few hundred miles.
 
I believe many of us will have two automobiles, one electric, for short runs, daily commutes, and a gasser or hybrid for longer trips, that is until charging stations are up all over. It will come. Also technology changes fast. There might be some breakthrough in batteries or some other technology that no one even thought of that replaces everything. Electric would not suit me, at least right now. I drive and average of 400 miles a day. some cars might do that now, but I also haul a pickup load of stuff. On the other hand my wife drives 4 miles a day, and once in a while maybe 100 miles on a Saturday. Electric would suit her well.

The video I saw mentioned city folks might not even own automobiles. They cal Uber, or what ever service is available and a autonomous vehicle will show up and wait on the curb to run them where ever they want. much of this will not work for us in the plains, farmers, people that travel a lot, but you never know what lays around the corner.
 
I believe many of us will have two automobiles, one electric, for short runs, daily commutes, and a gasser or hybrid for longer trips, that is until charging stations are up all over. It will come. Also technology changes fast. There might be some breakthrough in batteries or some other technology that no one even thought of that replaces everything. Electric would not suit me, at least right now. I drive and average of 400 miles a day. some cars might do that now, but I also haul a pickup load of stuff. On the other hand my wife drives 4 miles a day, and once in a while maybe 100 miles on a Saturday. Electric would suit her well.

The video I saw mentioned city folks might not even own automobiles. They cal Uber, or what ever service is available and a autonomous vehicle will show up and wait on the curb to run them where ever they want. much of this will not work for us in the plains, farmers, people that travel a lot, but you never know what lays around the corner.

There are some futurists that suggest the vehicle that shows to pick up a traveler won't be Uber, but instead will be your car when you aren't using it. Driverless car technology could very well develop to the point that while you're sleeping, your car is out working to make you money and then, will be back in your garage when you need to leave for work at 7 am.
 
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