Page 10 of 24 FirstFirst ... 8 9 10 11 12 20 ... LastLast
Results 136 to 150 of 359

Thread: Tips and considerations during this time of National Emergency

  1. #136
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega Man View Post
    The news has taught us that everything mustbe presented in a sensationalized fashion based on what will keep you viewing/reading even if it's "not exactly accurate". And of course.......there is the "Monday Morning Quarterbacking" that has become so prevalent in todays day to day life.
    Oh how I long for the days of Edward R Murrow!
    Paul Glaves - "Big Bend", Texas U.S.A
    "The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem in a way that will allow a solution." - Bertrand Russell
    http://web.bigbend.net/~glaves/

  2. #137
    Quote Originally Posted by GREGFEELER View Post
    Thanks for the clarification. "Inaccurate reporting due to lack of testing" sounds a lot different to me than "...the US was not reporting the true number of fatalities." which sounds conspiratorial.
    One often sees what one is looking for.
    Paul Glaves - "Big Bend", Texas U.S.A
    "The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem in a way that will allow a solution." - Bertrand Russell
    http://web.bigbend.net/~glaves/

  3. #138
    '14 R1200 GS Adv bigjohnsd's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2018
    Location
    Black Hills, SD
    Posts
    169
    I live in South Dakota, relatively isolated and with a rather low population with two "urban centers," the rest really distributed.
    Our only real problem is I-90 running across the state, a path for infection to travel for certain.

    We had 58 cases as of yesterday at noon, the cases have been doubling every three days.

    The state has tested less than .25% of our population of 900.000, we have the capacity to test about 1,000 persons per day.

    The Governor seems to have a pretty good handle on what she is doing though we don't have enough testing capability to Test and isolate.

    In yesterday's news conference the Governor expressed her opinion that this won't be over by Easter, a statement I agree with.

    Looking out my living room window, the Black Hills are beautiful, it is nearly 50 degrees, I might get the bike put back together this afternoon so I can go for a sanity ride by myself tomorrow.

    God Bless you all.
    The only dumb question is the unasked question - Anonymous

    Eat every Ham Sandwich like it is your last Ham Sandwich! - Anonymous

  4. #139
    Registered User 36654's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Central PA
    Posts
    6,167
    Quote Originally Posted by akbeemer View Post
    Some perspective. There are approximately 7 billion people on planet earth. This morning the Fox News website says 615,000 people are infected (0.009%). Assuming a 100% error in reporting and there are really 1,230,000 infected (0.018%). 29,000 have died (0.0004%). Assuming a 100% error in reporting 58,000 have died (0.0008%).

    There are approximately 330 million people in the USA. This morning the Fox News website says 105,000 people are infected (0.03%). Assuming a 100% error in reporting and there are really 210,000 infected (0.06%). 1,711 have died (0.0005%). Assuming a 100% error in reporting 3,422 have died (0.001%).

    I think I have the math correct.
    In 35-days, 0.0151% of Italy's population has died of COVID-19 (as of yesterday, 27 MAR 2020)). The US Influenza and pneumonia deaths for all of 2017 (365-days) was 0.0171% of the US population. Considering the current trends, Italy will surpass the 0.0171% of total population rate in a day or two. So, the same proportional number of deaths within ~1/10 the period of time. It not just the number of deaths, it's the time period and the amount of beds and equipment that are available per capita. For reference, Italy has ~17% more hospital beds per capita than the US.

    According to the CDC, for the year 2017, the top causes of death are

    Cause....................Per Capita Deaths
    1) Heart Disease...........0.199%
    2) Cancer....................0.184%
    3) Accidents................0.052%
    4) Chronic Respiratory....0.048%
    5) Stroke.....................0.045%
    6) Alzheimers................0.037%
    7) Diabetes..................0.026%
    8) Influenza/pneumonia..0.017%
    9) Kidney Disease..........0.016%
    10 Suicide....................0.014%

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/n...r68_06-508.pdf
    Cave contents: 16 R12RS, 13 Toyota Tacoma, 03 Simplicity Legacy, 97 Stihl FS75, Dewalt DW625 & SawStop PCS175
    1) My expectations are never low enough & 2) Incompetence is infinite ........David Brooks

  5. #140
    Registered User 36654's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Central PA
    Posts
    6,167
    Quote Originally Posted by PGlaves View Post
    Oh how I long for the days of Edward R Murrow!
    But, think of the monster(s) he had to slay. Yes, we need Murrow, but I doubt many would listen...
    Cave contents: 16 R12RS, 13 Toyota Tacoma, 03 Simplicity Legacy, 97 Stihl FS75, Dewalt DW625 & SawStop PCS175
    1) My expectations are never low enough & 2) Incompetence is infinite ........David Brooks

  6. #141
    Quote Originally Posted by 36654 View Post
    But, think of the monster(s) he had to slay. Yes, we need Murrow, but I doubt many would listen...
    Most US residents wouldn't even recognize the name.
    Paul Glaves - "Big Bend", Texas U.S.A
    "The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem in a way that will allow a solution." - Bertrand Russell
    http://web.bigbend.net/~glaves/

  7. #142
    Registered User 36654's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Central PA
    Posts
    6,167
    Quote Originally Posted by PGlaves View Post
    Most US residents wouldn't even recognize the name.
    People in their mid-50's and older, have no excuse. Young folks being unaware, I can understand, but regret.
    Cave contents: 16 R12RS, 13 Toyota Tacoma, 03 Simplicity Legacy, 97 Stihl FS75, Dewalt DW625 & SawStop PCS175
    1) My expectations are never low enough & 2) Incompetence is infinite ........David Brooks

  8. #143
    Registered User Subman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Location
    Maine
    Posts
    119
    Quote Originally Posted by PGlaves View Post
    Oh how I long for the days of Edward R Murrow!
    At age 60, I grew up with Walter Cronkite.

    And that's the way it is...
    Dave K.
    1971 R75/5, 2016 R1200R, 2019 Indian Scout

  9. #144
    Registered User 36654's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Central PA
    Posts
    6,167
    Quote Originally Posted by Subman View Post
    At age 60, I grew up with Walter Cronkite.

    And that's the way it is...
    Cronkite came up thru the CBS ranks under Murrow. Murrow tried to recruit him as the Moscow bureau head during WW2, but Cronkite stayed with UP and reported from the western European front. Cronkite joined Murrow's team at CBS in 1950.
    Cave contents: 16 R12RS, 13 Toyota Tacoma, 03 Simplicity Legacy, 97 Stihl FS75, Dewalt DW625 & SawStop PCS175
    1) My expectations are never low enough & 2) Incompetence is infinite ........David Brooks

  10. #145
    Debbie's Servant Lee's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    SW Iowa
    Posts
    7,333
    Quote Originally Posted by PGlaves View Post
    Most US residents wouldn't even recognize the name.
    I remember the name but do not remember watching as he stopped broadcasting when I was six.
    I grew up watching Cronkite on a tiny black and white.
    Lee
    2016 R1200RS
    MOA # 30878
    Past BMW Bikes: 2011 K1300S, 2003 K1200RS, 1991 K75S, 1987 K75T, 1984 R100RT

  11. #146
    Fortis Fortuna Adiuvat Omega Man's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Mansfield,MA
    Posts
    15,014
    Saw a good tip which relates to anyone expecting a direct-deposit stimulus check.......
    Try to make sure you are still associated with the account that, say your last IRS tax refund was direct deposited to.
    This direct-deposit information has to be changed- if needed, by phone. If you normally “square up” on tax day, and have a refund mailed to you, the check should be “in the mail”.
    Good luck.
    OM
    "You can do good or you can do well. Sooner or later they make you choose." MI5
    Mod Squad
    2009 F800GS 1994 TW200

  12. #147
    Rally Rat 1074's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Las Vegas, NV
    Posts
    689
    I have re-read all the posts in this thread just to make sure that I am doing all the right things during the current crisis. It seems that all the non-essential businesses in Las Vegas are indeed shut down. Fortunately the liquor stores have been deemed essential! The isolation thing is not a problem as it gives me an excuse to stay in the garage tending to the bikes!
    And just so you know, after I send this post, I'm going to sanitize my mouse, screen and keyboard and go drink a Corona beer.
    Boxerbruce

  13. #148
    Quote Originally Posted by 36654 View Post

    According to the CDC, for the year 2017, the top causes of death are

    Cause....................Per Capita Deaths
    1) Heart Disease...........0.199%
    2) Cancer....................0.184%
    3) Accidents................0.052%
    4) Chronic Respiratory....0.048%
    5) Stroke.....................0.045%
    6) Alzheimers................0.037%
    7) Diabetes..................0.026%
    8) Influenza/pneumonia..0.017%
    9) Kidney Disease..........0.016%
    10 Suicide....................0.014%

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/n...r68_06-508.pdf
    And for comparison purposes, how contagious are each or any of these. Only #8
    Paul Glaves - "Big Bend", Texas U.S.A
    "The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem in a way that will allow a solution." - Bertrand Russell
    http://web.bigbend.net/~glaves/

  14. #149
    Registered User 36654's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Central PA
    Posts
    6,167
    Quote Originally Posted by PGlaves View Post
    And for comparison purposes, how contagious are each or any of these. Only #8
    With today's report, Italy's fatalities are 0.0205% of the population and they've occurred within 39-days. Hopefully, they'll approach near zero daily deaths before mid-April. That's a non-medical estimate based on a 4th order curve-fit projection of the daily death rate. What that means is, the daily death rate (deaths per day) starts dropping from the current ~800 per day level to under 600 per day by the end of this week. The total Italian COVID-19 deaths in that scenario is 15500~16000. Scaling that number by the population ratio of the US (326Million) and Italy (60.5Million), yields a COVID-19 death estimate of 83,500 to 86,000 for the US. That's similar to the US annual death rate for diabetes (the No. 7 cause of death)

    If the Italian COVID-19 death rate stays at current levels for next 10-days, 800~850 per day level for the next 10-days or so, then drops, that suggests a 3rd order distribution to the trend. In that scenario, total Italian COVID-19 deaths are estimated to be ~32,000. Scaled to the US population, that corresponds to 172,000 COVID-19 deaths. That's similar to the US annual death rate for accidents (the No. 3 cause of death)

    Based on the news reports, the University of Washington mortality model that Dr. Brix referenced (http://www.healthdata.org/) in the recent daily briefing is benchmarking/calibrating on Itlay's experience with COVID-19.
    Cave contents: 16 R12RS, 13 Toyota Tacoma, 03 Simplicity Legacy, 97 Stihl FS75, Dewalt DW625 & SawStop PCS175
    1) My expectations are never low enough & 2) Incompetence is infinite ........David Brooks

  15. #150
    Quote Originally Posted by 36654 View Post
    With today's report, Italy's fatalities are 0.0205% of the population and they've occurred within 39-days. Hopefully, they'll approach near zero daily deaths before mid-April. That's a non-medical estimate based on a 4th order curve-fit projection of the daily death rate. What that means is, the daily death rate (deaths per day) starts dropping from the current ~800 per day level to under 600 per day by the end of this week. The total Italian COVID-19 deaths in that scenario is 15500~16000. Scaling that number by the population ratio of the US (326Million) and Italy (60.5Million), yields a COVID-19 death estimate of 83,500 to 86,000 for the US. That's similar to the US annual death rate for diabetes (the No. 7 cause of death)

    If the Italian COVID-19 death rate stays at current levels for next 10-days, 800~850 per day level for the next 10-days or so, then drops, that suggests a 3rd order distribution to the trend. In that scenario, total Italian COVID-19 deaths are estimated to be ~32,000. Scaled to the US population, that corresponds to 172,000 COVID-19 deaths. That's similar to the US annual death rate for accidents (the No. 3 cause of death)

    Based on the news reports, the University of Washington mortality model that Dr. Brix referenced (http://www.healthdata.org/) in the recent daily briefing is benchmarking/calibrating on Itlay's experience with COVID-19.
    Meaning? I understand the numbers but not what they mean for me in my house in a rural county with zero confirmed cases, but also zero tests. Am I as likely to die in a head-on going to the store as I am if the clerk sneezes in my face? Is this a lesser or greater risk as dying in Nagasaki in 1945?

    And when, other than Hurricane Katrina or 9/11 have we overwhelmed hospitals like we are doing now. Somehow the statistics fail to tell the truth here.
    Paul Glaves - "Big Bend", Texas U.S.A
    "The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem in a way that will allow a solution." - Bertrand Russell
    http://web.bigbend.net/~glaves/

Similar Threads

  1. Oil Head Mileage Considerations
    By bswihart in forum Hexheads/Camheads
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 01-25-2015, 10:36 PM
  2. Any Tips About Yellowstone National Park?
    By beemeup in forum Ride Reports
    Replies: 11
    Last Post: 12-30-2011, 01:02 AM
  3. First Time Attendee to a National - Read This
    By RHAUTAU in forum Rally Forum
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 04-23-2010, 03:32 AM
  4. Considerations when buying used?
    By Rocket in forum Oilheads
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 07-19-2005, 01:27 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •