pglaves
#13338
But, think of the monster(s) he had to slay. Yes, we need Murrow, but I doubt many would listen...
Most US residents wouldn't even recognize the name.
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
But, think of the monster(s) he had to slay. Yes, we need Murrow, but I doubt many would listen...
Most US residents wouldn't even recognize the name.
Oh how I long for the days of Edward R Murrow!
At age 60, I grew up with Walter Cronkite.
And that's the way it is...
Most US residents wouldn't even recognize the name.
According to the CDC, for the year 2017, the top causes of death are
Cause....................Per Capita Deaths
1) Heart Disease...........0.199%
2) Cancer....................0.184%
3) Accidents................0.052%
4) Chronic Respiratory....0.048%
5) Stroke.....................0.045%
6) Alzheimers................0.037%
7) Diabetes..................0.026%
8) Influenza/pneumonia..0.017%
9) Kidney Disease..........0.016%
10 Suicide....................0.014%
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_06-508.pdf
And for comparison purposes, how contagious are each or any of these. Only #8
With today's report, Italy's fatalities are 0.0205% of the population and they've occurred within 39-days. Hopefully, they'll approach near zero daily deaths before mid-April. That's a non-medical estimate based on a 4th order curve-fit projection of the daily death rate. What that means is, the daily death rate (deaths per day) starts dropping from the current ~800 per day level to under 600 per day by the end of this week. The total Italian COVID-19 deaths in that scenario is 15500~16000. Scaling that number by the population ratio of the US (326Million) and Italy (60.5Million), yields a COVID-19 death estimate of 83,500 to 86,000 for the US. That's similar to the US annual death rate for diabetes (the No. 7 cause of death)
If the Italian COVID-19 death rate stays at current levels for next 10-days, 800~850 per day level for the next 10-days or so, then drops, that suggests a 3rd order distribution to the trend. In that scenario, total Italian COVID-19 deaths are estimated to be ~32,000. Scaled to the US population, that corresponds to 172,000 COVID-19 deaths. That's similar to the US annual death rate for accidents (the No. 3 cause of death)
Based on the news reports, the University of Washington mortality model that Dr. Brix referenced (http://www.healthdata.org/) in the recent daily briefing is benchmarking/calibrating on Itlay's experience with COVID-19.
Meaning? I understand the numbers but not what they mean for me in my house in a rural county with zero confirmed cases, but also zero tests. Am I as likely to die in a head-on going to the store as I am if the clerk sneezes in my face? Is this a lesser or greater risk as dying in Nagasaki in 1945?
And when, other than Hurricane Katrina or 9/11 have we overwhelmed hospitals like we are doing now. Somehow the statistics fail to tell the truth here.
Paul,
How I view it is.........it's the number of deaths in period of time. In the case of Italy, they achieved the US per capita number of influenza/pneumonia deaths in a period of 36~37 days. So, that's a 10X increase in demand on health care resources for that period. Do you think your "local" hospital could handle a 10X work load for a one to month period? I know my local hospital can barely handle the ER case load during a warm fall or spring weekend if the students are in-town.
We live in a three county area with a largely rural population of just over 18,000 people. There is one local hospital, 25 beds, 2 respirators. My local hospital couldn't handle a 10x workload for 15 minutes, let alone a month. This is the reality in rural Texas at least where the public disinvestment in health care has been extreme. It is the state with the largest percentage of people without health insurance, that rejected Medicaid expansion, where going to the emergency room can be a way of life because private clinics will turn people away due to no money and by state law the subsidized clinics only need to serve people whose income lies below 20% of the Federal poverty line. Covid 19 will be grim when it hits here. I don't leave the property unless I have to. But I expect to see friends and neighbors die. It ain't the flu!
Flatten the curve will prolong the pandemic but it gives the medical world a chance to cope with its existing resources.
Doug
Any good Spam recipes?
om