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Tips and considerations during this time of National Emergency

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At age 60, I grew up with Walter Cronkite.

And that's the way it is...

Cronkite came up thru the CBS ranks under Murrow. Murrow tried to recruit him as the Moscow bureau head during WW2, but Cronkite stayed with UP and reported from the western European front. Cronkite joined Murrow's team at CBS in 1950.
 
Saw a good tip which relates to anyone expecting a direct-deposit stimulus check.......
Try to make sure you are still associated with the account that, say your last IRS tax refund was direct deposited to.
This direct-deposit information has to be changed- if needed, by phone. If you normally “square up” on tax day, and have a refund mailed to you, the check should be “in the mail”.
Good luck.
OM
 
I have re-read all the posts in this thread just to make sure that I am doing all the right things during the current crisis. It seems that all the non-essential businesses in Las Vegas are indeed shut down. Fortunately the liquor stores have been deemed essential! The isolation thing is not a problem as it gives me an excuse to stay in the garage tending to the bikes!
And just so you know, after I send this post, I'm going to sanitize my mouse, screen and keyboard and go drink a Corona beer.
 
According to the CDC, for the year 2017, the top causes of death are

Cause....................Per Capita Deaths
1) Heart Disease...........0.199%
2) Cancer....................0.184%
3) Accidents................0.052%
4) Chronic Respiratory....0.048%
5) Stroke.....................0.045%
6) Alzheimers................0.037%
7) Diabetes..................0.026%
8) Influenza/pneumonia..0.017%
9) Kidney Disease..........0.016%
10 Suicide....................0.014%

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_06-508.pdf

And for comparison purposes, how contagious are each or any of these. Only #8
 
And for comparison purposes, how contagious are each or any of these. Only #8

With today's report, Italy's fatalities are 0.0205% of the population and they've occurred within 39-days. Hopefully, they'll approach near zero daily deaths before mid-April. That's a non-medical estimate based on a 4th order curve-fit projection of the daily death rate. What that means is, the daily death rate (deaths per day) starts dropping from the current ~800 per day level to under 600 per day by the end of this week. The total Italian COVID-19 deaths in that scenario is 15500~16000. Scaling that number by the population ratio of the US (326Million) and Italy (60.5Million), yields a COVID-19 death estimate of 83,500 to 86,000 for the US. That's similar to the US annual death rate for diabetes (the No. 7 cause of death)

If the Italian COVID-19 death rate stays at current levels for next 10-days, 800~850 per day level for the next 10-days or so, then drops, that suggests a 3rd order distribution to the trend. In that scenario, total Italian COVID-19 deaths are estimated to be ~32,000. Scaled to the US population, that corresponds to 172,000 COVID-19 deaths. That's similar to the US annual death rate for accidents (the No. 3 cause of death)

Based on the news reports, the University of Washington mortality model that Dr. Brix referenced (http://www.healthdata.org/) in the recent daily briefing is benchmarking/calibrating on Itlay's experience with COVID-19.
 
With today's report, Italy's fatalities are 0.0205% of the population and they've occurred within 39-days. Hopefully, they'll approach near zero daily deaths before mid-April. That's a non-medical estimate based on a 4th order curve-fit projection of the daily death rate. What that means is, the daily death rate (deaths per day) starts dropping from the current ~800 per day level to under 600 per day by the end of this week. The total Italian COVID-19 deaths in that scenario is 15500~16000. Scaling that number by the population ratio of the US (326Million) and Italy (60.5Million), yields a COVID-19 death estimate of 83,500 to 86,000 for the US. That's similar to the US annual death rate for diabetes (the No. 7 cause of death)

If the Italian COVID-19 death rate stays at current levels for next 10-days, 800~850 per day level for the next 10-days or so, then drops, that suggests a 3rd order distribution to the trend. In that scenario, total Italian COVID-19 deaths are estimated to be ~32,000. Scaled to the US population, that corresponds to 172,000 COVID-19 deaths. That's similar to the US annual death rate for accidents (the No. 3 cause of death)

Based on the news reports, the University of Washington mortality model that Dr. Brix referenced (http://www.healthdata.org/) in the recent daily briefing is benchmarking/calibrating on Itlay's experience with COVID-19.

Meaning? I understand the numbers but not what they mean for me in my house in a rural county with zero confirmed cases, but also zero tests. Am I as likely to die in a head-on going to the store as I am if the clerk sneezes in my face? Is this a lesser or greater risk as dying in Nagasaki in 1945?

And when, other than Hurricane Katrina or 9/11 have we overwhelmed hospitals like we are doing now. Somehow the statistics fail to tell the truth here.
 
Meaning? I understand the numbers but not what they mean for me in my house in a rural county with zero confirmed cases, but also zero tests. Am I as likely to die in a head-on going to the store as I am if the clerk sneezes in my face? Is this a lesser or greater risk as dying in Nagasaki in 1945?

And when, other than Hurricane Katrina or 9/11 have we overwhelmed hospitals like we are doing now. Somehow the statistics fail to tell the truth here.

Paul,

How I view it is.........it's the number of deaths in a period of time. In the case of Italy, they achieved the US per capita number of influenza/pneumonia deaths in a period of 36~37 days. So, that's a 10X increase in demand on health care resources for that period. Do you think your "local" hospital could handle a 10X work load for a one to month period? I know my local hospital can barely handle the ER case load during a warm fall or spring weekend if the students are in-town.
 
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Paul,

How I view it is.........it's the number of deaths in period of time. In the case of Italy, they achieved the US per capita number of influenza/pneumonia deaths in a period of 36~37 days. So, that's a 10X increase in demand on health care resources for that period. Do you think your "local" hospital could handle a 10X work load for a one to month period? I know my local hospital can barely handle the ER case load during a warm fall or spring weekend if the students are in-town.

We live in a three county area with a largely rural population of just over 18,000 people. There is one local hospital, 25 beds, 2 respirators. My local hospital couldn't handle a 10x workload for 15 minutes, let alone a month. This is the reality in rural Texas at least where the public disinvestment in health care has been extreme. It is the state with the largest percentage of people without health insurance, that rejected Medicaid expansion, where going to the emergency room can be a way of life because private clinics will turn people away due to no money and by state law the subsidized clinics only need to serve people whose income lies below 20% of the Federal poverty line. Covid 19 will be grim when it hits here. I don't leave the property unless I have to. But I expect to see friends and neighbors die. It ain't the flu!
 
We live in a three county area with a largely rural population of just over 18,000 people. There is one local hospital, 25 beds, 2 respirators. My local hospital couldn't handle a 10x workload for 15 minutes, let alone a month. This is the reality in rural Texas at least where the public disinvestment in health care has been extreme. It is the state with the largest percentage of people without health insurance, that rejected Medicaid expansion, where going to the emergency room can be a way of life because private clinics will turn people away due to no money and by state law the subsidized clinics only need to serve people whose income lies below 20% of the Federal poverty line. Covid 19 will be grim when it hits here. I don't leave the property unless I have to. But I expect to see friends and neighbors die. It ain't the flu!

Paul,

I hope your friends and neighbors make it thru, but the rest of your statement is a reality for a lot of places. I'm concerned when the virus hits the assisted care facilities in the rural areas. I doubt the underpaid staff in those places will be able to handle the load.
 
One care home in Ontario has had a lot of people die and over half the residents are sick. It's pretty horrific in that small town.
 
Living in a rural area has some real advantages: During a deadly pandemic not so much. But the same can be said for living in a big City. It doesn't look pretty in New York or New Orleans. And, here come Chicago and Detroit and others. I am not sure there are very many places where the medical infrastructure won't be overwhelmed unless we can really "flatten the curve." But that tactic prolongs the pandemic.
 
Flatten the curve will prolong the pandemic but it gives the medical world a chance to cope with its existing resources.

Doug
 
Flatten the curve will prolong the pandemic but it gives the medical world a chance to cope with its existing resources.

Doug

Crisis on the installment plan. I certainly hope everyone can and does hang in there with the social distancing and staying at home long enough to make a significant difference.
 
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