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Thread: What Criteria would MOA use to possibly cancel rally due to Corona Virus?

  1. #31
    Registered User gsinnc's Avatar
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    But honestly ... 80% or more who may get Cornoavirus will handle it fine and it will be somewhat like the flu according to the experts. And those of reasonable heath should be fine if they get the virus. It seems to be similar to influenzas whereby those at risk are those who already have aliments or are very young or very elderly. I am 63 years old in good health and not very worried.
    Ed Apelian
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  2. #32
    Dances With Sheep GREGFEELER's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kbasa View Post
    Note that Italy went from <100 cases to a couple thousand in a week, then to tens of thousands in two weeks.

    Comparison with the flu isn't terribly accurate. There is no vaccine or inoculation against Covid, which is something we've had for years with influenza. Remember that just 100 years ago, influenza killed 5% of the world population because there wasn't an effective vaccination or treatment plan.

    Just like what we have now with this virus.

    And remember, lethality is associated with age, so the older you are, the more likely it is to kill you.
    Dave,
    The average age for MOA members is well above 55 and has been since at least 2015 and by all indications we have gotten older since then, so your concerns are very valid in my opinion.
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  3. #33
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    Italy's COVID 19 mortality rate is 5%. WHO places the worldwide COVID 19 mortality rate at 3.4%.

    The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S.

  4. #34
    Dances With Sheep GREGFEELER's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RadioFlyer View Post
    Italy's COVID 19 mortality rate is 5%. WHO places the worldwide COVID 19 mortality rate at 3.4%.

    The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S.
    Speaking of WHO, here's a link to some very detailed information about both COVID 19 and influenza, and world totals of COVID 19 cases and deaths:
    https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=96b04adf_2
    Greg Feeler
    Ambassador & amateur K-Bike collector, it seems
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  5. #35
    Fortis Fortuna Adiuvat Omega Man's Avatar
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    New Rochell New York to be quarantined by the National Guard
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  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by gsinnc View Post
    But honestly ... 80% or more who may get Cornoavirus will handle it fine and it will be somewhat like the flu according to the experts. And those of reasonable heath should be fine if they get the virus. It seems to be similar to influenzas whereby those at risk are those who already have aliments or are very young or very elderly. I am 63 years old in good health and not very worried.
    This isn't a matter of personal survivability. It's not enough to say that because I personally will handle it fine I will just carry on as usual. What about all those more vulnerable segments of the population whose probability of being infected increases because there are more infected people in circulation? We have a moral duty to protect them. It's not just about us.

    And it's not like the flu. See post #33.

  7. #37
    Registered User time2ride's Avatar
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    Here is a great resource for “risk-informed decision making for mass gatherings during Covid-19 global outbreak”

    I am part of our emergency management team at the college I work at and we are using this as part of our decision making when it comes to any large event.

    https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...assesment.html
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    Brian

  8. #38
    Nice informative site!

    Here is the latest info as of 3:34.00
    Quick Facts

    Data updated: a few seconds ago (Smaller countries take longer)

    117,954

    Total Confirmed Cases

    4,203

    Total Deceased

    5,932

    Total Serious

    64,716

    Total Recovered

    110⁄195

    Total Countries Infected

    that recovery rate looks pretty good to me!
    I'm still planning on coming!

  9. #39
    Focused kbasa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RadioFlyer View Post
    This isn't a matter of personal survivability. It's not enough to say that because I personally will handle it fine I will just carry on as usual. What about all those more vulnerable segments of the population whose probability of being infected increases because there are more infected people in circulation? We have a moral duty to protect them. It's not just about us.

    And it's not like the flu. See post #33.
    The kind of logic you quoted is why we have people not immunizing their kids.

    Herd immunity is a serious factor in preventing epidemics and right now, there's not a person on the planet that has a single bit of immunity to this. I kinda like breathing, so I'll be avoiding people entirely for a while. My company has banned all travel. If you've traveled for personal reasons, we're expecting a 14 day self quarantine. Most people in the company are being urged to work from home unless they're physically required to be in the office to perform their duties.

    Many of our clients are doing the same. I've been watching meetings on my calendar get converted from a physical visit to a Zoom meeting for about a week now. Travel I had planned for Thursday to Phoenix and Sunday to Houston are cancelled. Our exec team is not on the road for the first time in my employment here, as well. Legal knowledge events like the Masters Conference here in SF have been cancelled. My wife's employer a Really Large Bank, is reporting that a staff member with Covid19 was in their downtown offices, so they're currently sanitizing those offices entirely.

    I'll stay home, thanks. The infection vector works along the lines of first week isn't bad, maybe a fever. Second week, it moves into the lungs and induces a horrid cough, then may progress to pneumonia. If you're older, even in good health, pneumonia has the potential to kill you.

    We all wear helmets. We all wear decent riding gear. I can't help but see public ventures into crowds a lot like riding without gear or a helmet.

    Your mileage may vary with your comfort with differing levels of personal risk.
    Dave Swider
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  10. #40
    Focused kbasa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimbobvfr View Post
    Nice informative site!

    Here is the latest info as of 3:34.00
    Quick Facts

    Data updated: a few seconds ago (Smaller countries take longer)

    117,954

    Total Confirmed Cases

    4,203

    Total Deceased

    5,932

    Total Serious

    64,716

    Total Recovered

    110⁄195

    Total Countries Infected

    that recovery rate looks pretty good to me!
    I'm still planning on coming!
    Align severity and outcome with age and you see a very different picture than the gross numbers.

    covid-19-2.001-640x480.jpeg
    Dave Swider
    Marin County, CA

    Some bikes. Some with motors, some without.

  11. #41
    Registered User jandhumphreyme's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RadioFlyer View Post
    Italy's COVID 19 mortality rate is 5%. WHO places the worldwide COVID 19 mortality rate at 3.4%.

    The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S.
    One must be careful in quoting mortality rates. As a percentage of "confirmed" cases I've no reason to doubt the above quoted numbers, however, these are only "confirmed" cases. What about all cases in which the infection only resulted in a very mild case mimicking a cold or mild case where it mimicked the flu or cases where people have been exposed but did not get sick at all? Chances are very high these cases have gone unreported and unconfirmed. To correctly assess the "mortality rate" ALL cases must be counted and factored in, remember if only one person died and they were the only one tested, mortality rate would be 100%.

    Connectivity of our world today is a double edged sword, fortunately useful information spreads rapidly, unfortunately so does misinformation.
    So often times it happens that we live our lives in chains
    And we never even know we have the key

  12. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by jandhumphreyme View Post
    One must be careful in quoting mortality rates. As a percentage of "confirmed" cases I've no reason to doubt the above quoted numbers, however, these are only "confirmed" cases. What about all cases in which the infection only resulted in a very mild case mimicking a cold or mild case where it mimicked the flu or cases where people have been exposed but did not get sick at all? Chances are very high these cases have gone unreported and unconfirmed. To correctly assess the "mortality rate" ALL cases must be counted and factored in, remember if only one person died and they were the only one tested, mortality rate would be 100%.

    Connectivity of our world today is a double edged sword, fortunately useful information spreads rapidly, unfortunately so does misinformation.
    This seems to be a classic example of "whataboutism". What is presented is to one extent or another true. But it is also true of the flu, bacterial pneumonia, H1N1, SARS, MERS, and other illnesses. So for comparison purposes the point is meaningless. But so what. When they cancel major events like SXSW, and major employers are prohibiting travel, and Japan is seriously considering seeking a one year (or longer) delay for the Olympics, they send the National Guard to enforce a one mile radius travel boundary in a city in New York, they lock down most of Italy, and sadly bury their dead in China, Italy, Japan, Iran, and Seattle I don't see a lot of merit in trying to minimize things. People should not panic but they also shouldn't try to sugar coat a serious situation. Or argue about statistics when people are dying.
    Paul Glaves - "Big Bend", Texas U.S.A
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  13. #43
    Registered User Guenther's Avatar
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    I expect that the city of Great Falls makes and earlier decision than the MOA.

    /Guenther
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  14. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by PGlaves View Post
    This seems to be a classic example of "whataboutism". What is presented is to one extent or another true. But it is also true of the flu, bacterial pneumonia, H1N1, SARS, MERS, and other illnesses. So for comparison purposes the point is meaningless. But so what. When they cancel major events like SXSW, and major employers are prohibiting travel, and Japan is seriously considering seeking a one year (or longer) delay for the Olympics, they send the National Guard to enforce a one mile radius travel boundary in a city in New York, they lock down most of Italy, and sadly bury their dead in China, Italy, Japan, Iran, and Seattle I don't see a lot of merit in trying to minimize things. People should not panic but they also shouldn't try to sugar coat a serious situation. Or argue about statistics when people are dying.
    Amen. You beat me to it.

  15. #45
    Registered User gsinnc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PGlaves View Post
    This seems to be a classic example of "whataboutism". What is presented is to one extent or another true. But it is also true of the flu, bacterial pneumonia, H1N1, SARS, MERS, and other illnesses. So for comparison purposes the point is meaningless. But so what. When they cancel major events like SXSW, and major employers are prohibiting travel, and Japan is seriously considering seeking a one year (or longer) delay for the Olympics, they send the National Guard to enforce a one mile radius travel boundary in a city in New York, they lock down most of Italy, and sadly bury their dead in China, Italy, Japan, Iran, and Seattle I don't see a lot of merit in trying to minimize things. People should not panic but they also shouldn't try to sugar coat a serious situation. Or argue about statistics when people are dying.
    Me thinks it is a bit too late for not panicking.
    Ed Apelian
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    2018 R1200GS - Light White !
    2016 R1200RT- Platinum Bronze

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