R18 and R18 /2

PGlaves said:

Backing the bike to the curb and posing with it is not exactly a mainstream activity for most BMW riders, while the same cannot be said for HD riders. So peruse the historical participation and placing in the Biennial Iron Butt Rally for example and you do find a different perspective on participation.

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Not many Harley do Iron Butt mileage requirements. Until I moved to Az. I made every Laconia, NH bike week since 1972. I was born there and still had relatives I could stay with, so it was a no brainer to travel to from just south of that states borders. 90% Harley attendance out of 400K bikes that week. That's a guess but it's close.

The last MOA national rally had what? 6K in attendance from all over the US? Laconia draws people from all over the country and Europe that week. Daytona, nearly identical percentage of Harleys.

brownie0486 said:

Not many Harley do Iron Butt mileage requirements. Until I moved to Az. I made every Laconia, NH bike week since 1972. I was born there and still had relatives I could stay with, so it was a no brainer to travel to from just south of that states borders. 90% Harley attendance out of 400K bikes that week. That's a guess but it's close.

The last MOA national rally had what? 6K in attendance from all over the US? Laconia draws people from all over the country and Europe that week. Daytona, nearly identical percentage of Harleys.

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Having been to Daytona a couple of times and Sturgis a couple of times I agree that these events draw HD riders in numbers unmatched by any other brand. And some of the venues draw real mainstream bands from yesteryear. I stand by my once earlier observation that either of these events constitute the world's largest costume party. Here in the Big Bend we get bands of pirates bleating their loud pipes way in large numbers. When I can hear them departing past my house, two or three miles away it is almost ridiculous. It used to be three bikes: one for the tools, one for the parts, and one for the beer. Now they seem to run in packs of 8 to 12 with a couple of sag wagons full of the "old ladies" tagging along behind. It would be comical if it wasn't so sad.

PGlaves said:

Having been to Daytona a couple of times and Sturgis a couple of times I agree that these events draw HD riders in numbers unmatched by any other brand. And some of the venues draw real mainstream bands from yesteryear. I stand by my once earlier observation that either of these events constitute the world's largest costume party. Here in the Big Bend we get bands of pirates bleating their loud pipes way in large numbers. When I can hear them departing past my house, two or three miles away it is almost ridiculous. It used to be three bikes: one for the tools, one for the parts, and one for the beer. Now they seem to run in packs of 8 to 12 with a couple of sag wagons full of the "old ladies" tagging along behind. It would be comical if it wasn't so sad.

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I'd enjoy seeing more Beemer riders attend these week long events like Sturgis and Laconia myself.

brownie0486 said:

I made every Laconia, NH bike week since 1972. 90% Harley attendance out of 400K bikes that week. That's a guess but it's close. Laconia draws people from all over the country and Europe that week. Daytona, nearly identical percentage of Harleys.

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I've been to Laconia and Daytona about 10 times and I can't say I met a lot of people from Europe at either venue. No matter - the draw isn't the races at either Laconia or Daytona. The draw is exactly as Mr. Glaves has indicated - posing. And that's an entirely different demographic from your typical BMW owner/rider. Not saying one is better or worse than the other; simply an understanding of fact. As far as attending Sturgis or Laconia, I've done Sturgis once and that was one time too many. It has nothing to do with motorcycling and anyone who says it does is either lying or deluded.

Now, if introduction of the R18 can increase market share for BMW, good on 'em.

BC1100S said:

I've been to Laconia and Daytona about 10 times and I can't say I met a lot of people from Europe at either venue. No matter - the draw isn't the races at either Laconia or Daytona. The draw is exactly as Mr. Glaves has indicated - posing. And that's an entirely different demographic from your typical BMW owner/rider. Not saying one is better or worse than the other; simply an understanding of fact. As far as attending Sturgis or Laconia, I've done Sturgis once and that was one time too many. It has nothing to do with motorcycling and anyone who says it does is either lying or deluded.

Now, if introduction of the R18 can increase market share for BMW, good on 'em.

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I always believed it was the comraderie [ sp ] of the Harley riders myself. With 400K attendance, and enough space on the boardwalk for perhaps 3K bikes at any one time, most are riding to scenic areas like Mt. Washington runs, and loops around both winnipesaukee and winnisquam. Few spend their time parked at Weirs beach.

Though I agree that anything Beemer can do to increase sales, get more people riding Beemers than other makes, the better for the rest of us. Perhaps if they increased sales by double or triple present numbers, we'd see more of them at events like Daytona and Laconia. My first introduction to bike week in Laconia, I was 8, sitting on my grandmothers lap in her T brid. But from 71 till 05 [ 48 years ] I made the event [ it's fathers day weekend ]. Never spent much time at Weirs other than to make the run from one end to the other, them head for the scenic areas of the white mountains. Many of those years I was riding HD dressers myself.

I have been riding Harleys for 15 years. I have been to Sturgis 3-4 times. Not for the "Harley" aspect of it, because I love to watch people. No better place to watch people do stupid stuff that Sturgis during the rally. I really don't fit in with the Harley crowd. I love motorcycles, but I don't bleed HD orange. I am also on a Harley group, but sometimes I am the odd man out because I don't understand why anyone would buy a 900 pound bike with a crappy suspension and a low performance engine and speed thousands of dollars of modifications to try turn it into a high performance motorcycle, when you can just spend less money and buy a BMW or one of the other brands out there. I still have a Harley, but I have come to accept it for what it is, a big fat low performance tractor with a cushy seat.

Oh, and the other post of Harley selling 250,000 bikes in the USA and more world wide? They sold roughly 350,000 world wide in 2007 and the number has dropped down to around 200,000, (I believe less than 200,000), a year world wide the last few years. I don't know the latest number exactly, but far from what was mentioned in the post. You can find Harley's financials on their website and it will back up the numbers

I do agree if BMW pulls 1% of the Harley buyers away it does boost BMW's sales a good amount 5-10%.

I also get a kick out of the HD forum I am on. The owner of the group has a K1600 and a Road Glide, at least he had a Road Glide. I have not seen mention of it for a year or two. There is also a few guys that own BMW's that mention it once in a while so there are a few Harley riders walking away and trying some other brand. Many state the same complaints. Tired of a heavy, low performance, poor riding motorcycle. Also the Milwaukee 8 that came out in 2017 has had it's share of problems.

I bought a 2018 RT a bit over a year ago and have a tough time justifying keeping my Harley Limited. My wife is no help as she likes riding it on short runs in the country so we hang on to it. For long trips we take the RT, no question there.

Back to the numbers

Just a clarification: From HD's own website it is actually 130k sold in 2018 in U.S., plus another 100k rest of the world, for 230k sold world wide.
BMW sold 14k in U.S. and 165k total WW.

I really think the R18 is designed for U.S. For reasons discussed above, related to culture- Big machines with show piece motors are more of a U.S. thing
If they sold 1000 of them in U.S., I'd bet the rest of the world would buy about 800 more. Similar ratio to HD.

greenmachine1100 said:

Just a clarification: From HD's own website it is actually 130k sold in 2018 in U.S., plus another 100k rest of the world, for 230k sold world wide.
BMW sold 14k in U.S. and 165k total WW.

I really think the R18 is designed for U.S. For reasons discussed above, related to culture- Big machines with show piece motors are more of a U.S. thing
If they sold 1000 of them in U.S., I'd bet the rest of the world would buy about 800 more. Similar ratio to HD.

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Those numbers show a HUGE erosion of HD market share vs BMW. If correct this says BMW sells 72% as many motorcycles as HD does worldwide and is outsold only 9.2 to one in the United States where a few years ago it was 20 to one.

greenmachine1100 said:

Just a clarification: From HD's own website it is actually 130k sold in 2018 in U.S., plus another 100k rest of the world, for 230k sold world wide.
BMW sold 14k in U.S. and 165k total WW.

I really think the R18 is designed for U.S. For reasons discussed above, related to culture- Big machines with show piece motors are more of a U.S. thing
If they sold 1000 of them in U.S., I'd bet the rest of the world would buy about 800 more. Similar ratio to HD.

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I did a few minutes of research and what I find for 2018 units sold matches the roughly 230,000 motorcycles world wide. So we agree. I thought it was less.

PGlaves said:

Those numbers show a HUGE erosion of HD market share vs BMW. If correct this says BMW sells 72% as many motorcycles as HD does worldwide and is outsold only 9.2 to one in the United States where a few years ago it was 20 to one.

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I may be mistaken, but I seem to recall that in the last few years BMW sales keep slowly increasing, where most manufacturers sales are dropping. Back in 2007 Harley sold 357,000 units and BMW was probably slightly less than today's sales numbers. I don't believe BMW has suffered the rise and fall like most other manufacturers have.

PoorUB said:

I may be mistaken, but I seem to recall that in the last few years BMW sales keep slowly increasing, where most manufacturers sales are dropping. Back in 2007 Harley sold 357,000 units and BMW was probably slightly less than today's sales numbers. I don't believe BMW has suffered the rise and fall like most other manufacturers have.

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There are reasons HD stock fell 13% in 2017 and an additional 33% in 2018.

Here's the website address

https://investor.harley-davidson.com/our-company/motorcycle-retail-sales


Someday, I think Ford/Chevy/Ram will see the same thing happen with massive 4Dr 4WD Pick-ups.

Oh yeah. HD is sliding

There is no doubt HD is sliding down, losing 1-2% each year. There are other significant factors like profit margin, and merchandise (for Honda and BMW, too), but it is not a good sign.
Here is one thing I keep in mind. HD is like the NE Patriots in NFL: Their demise is consistently predicted! When I first shopped used cycles in a serious fashion, 20 years ago (?) the price for used Harleys was staggering. People wanted 2k dollars less than new, for a cycle that was 5-8 years old (lo miles, haha!). I thought that was unsustainable! Only a fool would not go to the dealership for new. But, I know people that will leave a 20k dollar HD in the corner of their garage for years because, "they know what they got." It is a toy, a luxury item. They think it will always retain its value, even though it is a machine and slowly turning into junk. Trying not to judge, but a lot of U.S. riders do the same thing to nice Hondas, nice dirt bikes, nice sport bikes.... it is, what it is.
Any way! HD demise is going to be slow and steady until they are niche brand (20 more years?), like MV Augusta (?) is my prediction. Sturgis will be Sturgis, ad infinitum. Year 2065 (when Florida is underwater), organizers will be worried about a 5% drop in attendance! haha!!!
And BMW bucking the trend is a bit of a mystery to me. All positive, but don't know where they will end up? Ain't takin' Honda or Kawi spot. In a good position if U.S. transitions to a more cycle friendly future (like present Asia, tool/commuter for low-income people)?

36654 said:

Here's the website address

https://investor.harley-davidson.com/our-company/motorcycle-retail-sales


Someday, I think Ford/Chevy/Ram will see the same thing happen with massive 4Dr 4WD Pick-ups.

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Much of that would depend upon what happens to the RV industry in this country. A great many of the pickups being purchased are for RV towing, as it's difficult to find another 5+ passenger vehicle that can safely and reliably tow 6000lbs of camper and still carry additional gear. I'd suspect the RV industry is largely boomer-driven right now, and as the boomers age out and the millenials, who are rarely in financial position to undertake such a purchase, begin to constitute more and more of the purchasing public, the RV industry will see it's heyday in the rear-view mirror. The SUV segment of the industry has already captured a huge chunk of the traditional sedan market and is likely to capture an ever-increasing segment of the current truck-buying market as well. And all of them--sedans, SUVs, Pickups--are mainly primary vehicles and not "toy" purchases, unlike H-D. So I expect to see sales trends for pickups and RVs parallel each other.

And I'm all in favor of fewer RVs on the road...

The roots of the current decline in H-D sales were planted back in the 70s, when they abandoned being a full-range motorcycle company and focused solely on big twins, and the 80s, where they followed Willie G all-in on the dress-like-a-pirate market. After several decades of offering nothing to beginning riders, and nothing to mainstream or performance-oriented motorcyclists, it's no surprise that sales are declining. And I'd expect that decline to continue so long as they continue to have a single-segment focus. And no, the LiveWire won't change that.

Meh.

Best,
DeVern

Guys comment on Honda's production numbers, but don't forget that includes everything from Gold Wings to 50cc scooters. It was a few years back, but if you look at Honda's production number of motorcycles over 600cc it is surprisingly small. They sell very few motorcycles in the engine sizes we ride.

greenmachine1100 said:

There is no doubt HD is sliding down, losing 1-2% each year. There are other significant factors like profit margin, and merchandise (for Honda and BMW, too), but it is not a good sign.
Here is one thing I keep in mind. HD is like the NE Patriots in NFL: Their demise is consistently predicted! When I first shopped used cycles in a serious fashion, 20 years ago (?) the price for used Harleys was staggering. People wanted 2k dollars less than new, for a cycle that was 5-8 years old (lo miles, haha!). I thought that was unsustainable!

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Probably closer to 5-10% per year drop!

Twenty years ago Harley couldn't keep up with the demand. That is what drove up used motorcycle sales. Around the year 1998-2004 you could not walk and buy a new Harley, there wasn't any on the floor. Guys would order one and not really know what they were getting because their order might hit the production floor two model years later. I know guys that bought Harleys, rode them for a month or two and had guys come to them and beg them to sell, often at $5,000 over new price. Hence the mid set where buying a Harley was an investment.

Since then Harley jumped up production and met the demand, even in 2007 when they produced 357,000 units there was no shortage. Now Harley is on the backside of the hill, producing slightly more than gets sold in a current, dealers sit with 1-2 year old motorcycles on the floor, (but they do seem to sell them). Used market has a glut of motorcycles and you can pick up used Harleys with few miles for cheap. I talked to a rider the other day that bought a 2018 Limited from a private party for $5,000 under NADA. The crazy part is the seller was upside down on the loan. He owed more on it than he sold it for and the money was not the problem. He wanted to buy a sports car of some sort and his wife put her foot down and told him the Harley had to go before he bought another toy!

Harley is coming out with other models and trying again to do something other than the Sportster and big twin, but I don't have much hope they will pull it off. The Boomers that buy something just because it says "Harley" on the label are dying off and the new crowd doesn't care as much about heritage and old school. Harley will come out with their dual purpose bike, over price it and it will be technologically behind other brands in the market, sell a few models just because, then roll it up and quit.

I never understood why they bought Buell, ran with it for a few years and did not keep on it and move on from there. The glorified Sporty engine in the Buell needed to go away which they did with the 1125 Rotax, but then they killed it off just when it started to show some hope.

GTRider said:

Much of that would depend upon what happens to the RV industry in this country. A great many of the pickups being purchased are for RV towing, as it's difficult to find another 5+ passenger vehicle that can safely and reliably tow 6000lbs of camper and still carry additional gear. I'd suspect the RV industry is largely boomer-driven right now, and as the boomers age out and the millenials, who are rarely in financial position to undertake such a purchase, begin to constitute more and more of the purchasing public, the RV industry will see it's heyday in the rear-view mirror. The SUV segment of the industry has already captured a huge chunk of the traditional sedan market and is likely to capture an ever-increasing segment of the current truck-buying market as well. And all of them--sedans, SUVs, Pickups--are mainly primary vehicles and not "toy" purchases, unlike H-D. So I expect to see sales trends for pickups and RVs parallel each other.

And I'm all in favor of fewer RVs on the road...

The roots of the current decline in H-D sales were planted back in the 70s, when they abandoned being a full-range motorcycle company and focused solely on big twins, and the 80s, where they followed Willie G all-in on the dress-like-a-pirate market. After several decades of offering nothing to beginning riders, and nothing to mainstream or performance-oriented motorcyclists, it's no surprise that sales are declining. And I'd expect that decline to continue so long as they continue to have a single-segment focus. And no, the LiveWire won't change that.

Meh.

Best,
DeVern

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Since 2017, RV sales have dropping over 10% per year. Kinda like Harley.....

greenmachine1100 said:

, like MV Augusta (?) is my prediction.

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You do know that MV is owned by a Russian Oligarch.

PoorUB said:

Guys comment on Honda's production numbers, but don't forget that includes everything from Gold Wings to 50cc scooters. It was a few years back, but if you look at Honda's production number of motorcycles over 600cc it is surprisingly small. They sell very few motorcycles in the engine sizes we ride.

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I've been wondering about Honda street bike numbers.
On trips we don't see many Honda dealers like we used to and when we see a dealer most of the time it's 4 wheelers and side by sides sitting out front.

It is interesting to me that BMW is introducing an air cooled, nut and screw adjusted motor at the same time HD is introducing a water cooled performance bike (Bronx).