Autonomous vehicles and motorcycles

Thanks, a good read. And I quote:

“Detection of motorcycles by other vehicle drivers is a constant challenge in the current riding and driving environment,” he warned. “As drivers become comfortable with, and rely more on ADAS [advanced driver assistance systems] technologies, they may become less attentive to the driving task and thus be less vigilant at detecting motorcycles on the roadway. If ADAS systems are unable to correctly identify motorcycles, a possible consequence of broad ADAS implementation may be an increase in car-motorcycle accidents even as car-car accidents decrease.”

"Let me translate that from academese, for you. What John means is, Hey! Motorcycles are out here on the roads. If auto makers are going to release and market cars with any degree of self-driving capability, automakers and regulatory bodies should ensure that those cars won’t just run us over. Because right now, all they’re doing is lulling car drivers into a false sense of security where car-motorcycle collisions are concerned."

I wouldn't worry about all this "autonomous vehicle" hype. While there is no doubt there will be quite a number of technological advances derived from these "experiments", it's all a very long way off.
What isn't a long way off is the swirl of hype that generates stock purchases and allow those "Behind the Curtain" to increase their wealth.
Of course, YMMV
OM

Omega Man said:

I wouldn't worry about all this "autonomous vehicle" hype. While there is no doubt there will be quite a number of technological advances derived from these "experiments", it's all a very long way off.
What isn't a long way off is the swirl of hype that generates stock purchases and allow those "Behind the Curtain" to increase their wealth.
Of course, YMMV
OM

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I don't think it is a long way off. Tesla alone is planning to put 5,000 to 10,000 cars a month on the road that could potentially cause us motorcyclists harm. Then, add in all of the other manufacturers that will play catch up to them... scary. The way a large number of people drive (or really don't drive) today, I see autonomous driving becoming a requirement rather than a luxury.

I hope I am wrong, but I don't think I am.

azgman said:

I don't think it is a long way off. Tesla alone is planning to put 5,000 to 10,000 cars a month on the road that could potentially cause us motorcyclists harm. Then, add in all of the other manufacturers that will play catch up to them... scary. The way a large number of people drive (or really don't drive) today, I see autonomous driving becoming a requirement rather than a luxury.

I hope I am wrong, but I don't think I am.

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As a former auto plant engineer I would say that Telsa is a long way off from flooding 5000 vehicles a week on the market. Having worked n an environment where our daily production schedule was 1040 per 2 shift operation it will take them quite a bit of experience building to pull it off.
Please let me amend my comments as I misread 5000a month to 5000 a week. To put it in perspective Telsa 's entire annual production rate equates to 5 weeks of production at my van plant. And we were only one of several plants producing similar product. So sighting one of the Telsa's vehicles will probably be several years In the future at which time they should have all the issues worked out

azgman said:

I don't think it is a long way off. I hope I am wrong, but I don't think I am.

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Time flies, and if the current trajectory persists I think you're right. At the same time it's very hard to predict whether or not ultimately it will be a net plus or not as far as motos are concerned. It's entirely possible sensing and logic will refine to the point collision avoidance algorithms will improve to the point autonomous vehicles will be better at detecting an oncoming motorcycle then their person-driven counterparts are.

For an interesting read about the pace of change in technology and its implications for humanity read Homo Deus.

Teslas are already pretty easy to spot on the roads here.

And hey, if we survive the wreck, we can sue the driver AND the manufacturer - VERY deep pockets, the lawyers gotta love it, especially since the laws regarding autonomy are still in flux.

Omega Man said:

I wouldn't worry about all this "autonomous vehicle" hype. While there is no doubt there will be quite a number of technological advances derived from these "experiments", it's all a very long way off.
What isn't a long way off is the swirl of hype that generates stock purchases and allow those "Behind the Curtain" to increase their wealth.
Of course, YMMV
OM

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I'm sure the buggy makers felt the same way when early automobiles, and the dangers they posed to horses, made their appearance. Autonomous highway vehicles are neither hype nor a very long way off, and their off-road counterparts are already in deployment and having an impact. Have a look at https://www.asirobots.com/?_vsrefdom=adwords to see what is already in play in agriculture, mining, and other industries. For at least the last five decades technology and automation have been the major forces driving increases in productivity and economic expansion and we've seen direct impacts from that in all forms of transportation--land, sea, and air. To expect that new technologies and new applications of technology will be forestalled just because they are disruptive, or because they pose some level of risk to a very small subset of users, is not realistic.

BMW and Honda are two manufacturers making both automobiles and motorcycles. VW, with their ownership of Ducati and the recent decision to continue that ownership, is in that group also. There may be others as well, but these three are all involved in researching autonomous cars. As motorcyclists, it will do us no good to play ostrich and pretend autonomous cars aren't coming, nor can we just sit back and observe. What's needed is early, vocal, and constructive input into the development and deployment of autonomous road vehicles. And now that BMWMOA and BNWCCA are sharing office space and personnel, perhaps it's time for the organizations to pair up, step up, and start providing that input.

IMHO and YMMV, of course.

Best,
DG

ncpbmw1953;1098287 For an interesting read about the pace of change in technology and its implications for humanity read [I said:

Homo Deus[/I].

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^^^^^^^^^^^^THIS^^^^^^^^^^

Best,
DG

Sure, I think we have to get to where they avoid pedestrians and bicyclists before we wonder about motorcycles. I'm pretty sure the mining and agricultural aspects are GPS driven with collision avoidance as a backup.
I wish I had got in early for Tesla.....and got out around......now
OM

I expect that if the self driving systems end up having issues with detecting motorcycles, they will go with a solution analogous to what small boats do to keep from being run over by big container ships. And that is to come up with something to put on the bike to make it extremely obvious to self driving cars. On the small boats, they have radar reflectors that greatly increase the radar return. For motorcycles I expect that we will end up with small transmitters that will actively generate signals for the the self driving sensors to detect. And they probably will also have some sort of IR LEDs to hep with visual detection.

And all of that is a bit of a short term issue, as long term all vehicles will end up being in mesh networks so that they are constantly telling each other position, velocity, acceleration, bearing, etc...

Wonder how Dean Graham would view this.. .. .

lmo1131 said:

Wonder how Dean Graham would view this.. .. .

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A robot would probably have paid more attention to it's lane discipline and not hit him. Robots won't be perfect for a long time, but they don't text, drink liquor or get bored.

My prediction: motorcycles will be restricted to roads without automated driving infrastructure and/or the insurance costs will make driving a non-autonomous vehicle, whether two, three, or four wheel, simply prohibitive.

sagerat said:

My prediction: motorcycles will be restricted to roads without automated driving infrastructure and/or the insurance costs will make driving a non-autonomous vehicle, whether two, three, or four wheel, simply prohibitive.

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Look at all the people terrified that the government is coming for their guns. Now realize that a lot more people own cars/motorcycles than guns. Can you imagine the outcry in the US if they try to remove your right to drive your classic cars/motorcycles? Bedlam.

Anyname said:

A robot would probably have paid more attention to it's lane discipline and not hit him. Robots won't be perfect for a long time, but they don't text, drink liquor or get bored.

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+1

My prediction: 50 years from now, by which time unfortunately, a vast number of current members in this club will be dead, people will still be steering their vehicles around this same infrastructure, obliviously sharing them with motorcycles.

Everything from "A Silent Spring" to George Orwell to "A Space Odyssey" to Arthur C. Clarke have come and gone without bold, often dire predictions bearing fruit.

I believe there are enough Americans who will still want to drive their cars/trucks/SUV's, rather than be chauffeured about by lobotomized cages.

If an autonomous car is caught speeding who gets the ticket: the hapless occupant, the owner, the programmer, or what? They surely won't let many of them on the roads until they figure out how to secure the revenue stream, would they?

greenwald said:

I believe there are enough Americans who will still want to drive their cars/trucks/SUV's, rather than be chauffeured about by lobotomized cages.

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Resistance is futile.......

But, Airhead parts will still be available.