A new study from VT on crashes

henzilla · Nov 22, 2016

Lifted from mika's BR&tMR today...down the page some for the glancers

http://www.revzilla.com/common-trea...ed-about-how-and-why-we-crash-our-motorcycles

I did not download the whole report yet since our satellite iternet download allowance has me picking and choosing today...but there is a link in the revzilla article. The oft quoted Hurt report is getting a bit ragged on the pages and with modern bikes and data is nice to see being used as things have changed a bit in that time frame.

BTW...thanks again to mika and his compilations

gfspencer · Nov 23, 2016

Very Interesting!

pglaves · Nov 23, 2016

So they had a total of 30 "crashes" and half of these were tip-overs at zero or near zero speed. That left 15 or so actual crashes. Drawing conclusions from this sample is fraught with peril - the sample is just too small. They might find this many on one group ride to Sturgis.

vtbob · Nov 23, 2016

PGlaves said:
So they had a total of 30 "crashes" and half of these were tip-overs at zero or near zero speed. That left 15 or so actual crashes. Drawing conclusions from this sample is fraught with peril - the sample is just too small. They might find this many on one group ride to Sturgis.

+1 on that!!

patiodadio · Nov 23, 2016

I enjoyed reading the story, thanks for posting.

AKsuited · Nov 23, 2016

MSF presentation of the study, with some video clips:

http://msf-usa.org/downloads/msf100_2016/Risk_Factors_From_MSF_100_Study_Presentation.pdf

Harry

pglaves · Nov 23, 2016

I shudder to think what the insurance folks and politicians might concoct based on this miniscule study. If you read or hear than anybody has drawn actual safety conclusions run away as fast as you can.

akbeemer · Nov 23, 2016

PGlaves said:
So they had a total of 30 "crashes" and half of these were tip-overs at zero or near zero speed. That left 15 or so actual crashes. Drawing conclusions from this sample is fraught with peril - the sample is just too small. They might find this many on one group ride to Sturgis.

Such is the state of research (and polling) in America. Hmmmm, I'm a insurance company CEO. I commission a "study" on motorcycle risks, and lo and behold it turns out we've been under charging for m/c insurance.... who knew.

henzilla · Nov 23, 2016

I still cannot dowload or watch the video....darn sat internet...such a pain as even Big Bend has high speed wire system...we are way behind here :banghead

Will get there next week after download allowance reset

Sounds a bit lacking in sampling

Friedle · Nov 24, 2016

random sample

Nice idea, about time to update the Hurt Study information, but far too small a study to draw any meaningful conclusions, as Paul has pointed out. Unless I am mistaken, there was no input from the Northeast part of the country which has a very high traffic density, poor roadways, limited sight lines and a great many untrained and unskilled drivers and motorcycle operators all in a big hurry to get somewhere right now.

Every time we attempt to invent a better motorcycle safety program society seems to invent a better idiot. :scratch

Friedle
MSF 27713

akbeemer · Nov 24, 2016

Friedle said:
........Every time we attempt to invent a better motorcycle safety program society seems to invent a better idiot.

That should be the official MSF moto!

jgoertz · Nov 24, 2016

Friedle said:
Nice idea, about time to update the Hurt Study information, but far too small a study to draw any meaningful conclusions, as Paul has pointed out. Unless I am mistaken, there was no input from the Northeast part of the country which has a very high traffic density, poor roadways, limited sight lines and a great many untrained and unskilled drivers and motorcycle operators all in a big hurry to get somewhere right now.

Every time we attempt to invent a better motorcycle safety program society seems to invent a better idiot.

Friedle
MSF 27713

There is a new study -- very near release right now -- done to replace the Hurt study. It was compiled by Oklahoma State University under a federal grant. About a month ago (mid-October), I spoke with the professor who was heading the study. He told me the study was finished and had been submitted to the Feds for review/approval, but as of that date, the Feds had not responded to him. When I saw him again (last Thursday 11-17-16), I neglected to ask him what the current status was, but it should be very close to becoming public!

BTW, he told me there wasn't any earthshaking differences from the data shown in the Hurt study, with the exception of the increased "Inattentive Driver" as cause of accidents. And this isn't too meaningful -- when compared with the Hurt study -- as the Hurt study did not include this as a cause.

alancoles · Nov 24, 2016

Friedle said:
...Every time we attempt to invent a better motorcycle safety program society seems to invent a better idiot. ...

That is especially true when you see that with such a small sample size (making the study's statistical accuracy almost worthless, but definitely providing insight and therefore of value), there are some disturbing info here.

34% of the riders in the study accounted for 86% of the crashes and near-crashes

That seems within reason and follows very roughly stats derived on many other items, but if you look at the data, one (1) rider, out of the 100 (1%) accounted for 13 of the "incidents" recorded or almost 10% and 10x the average. With such a small sample size and a very poor rider being included in that study the results are simply of very little value as they are skewed by someone who is obviously riding with very little ability, training, or restraint and yet is affecting a full 10% of the data!

My 1st year University Statistics course made it abundantly clear that the can be no credible statistics drawn from the study. There can be valuable information, but definitely not stats.

36654 · Nov 24, 2016

bobzeliff said:
+1 on that!!

I would have to agree

willhawks · Nov 24, 2016

Crash study

I remember reading the Hurt Report in 1981. What I took away from that were 3 things;
1. Intersections kill and 50% of the crashes involved cars turning left in front of motorcycles
2. You can increase your chances of avoiding a crash by keeping 2 fingers on the front brake when in traffic and when coming into an intersection
3. Booze and drugs account for 50% of all motorcycle deaths.

To this day I have continued to do the following:
1. I always keep 2 fingers on the front brake, even when on the open road
2. I go on "Red Alert" whenever I am coming to an intersection
3. I don't drink anymore and don't use drugs*

#3 is entirely personal but anyone who thinks you can mix booze/drugs with 2 wheels is an idiot.

All this having been said, the fact is that Harry Hurt literally saved my life thousands of times and I suspect there are many more like me. Finally, I agree that the study is quite flawed, but I will take the business of looking ahead under advisement. As I become a senior rider, I will use anything I can to give me more time in the saddle and less in the hospital

alancoles · Nov 25, 2016

will3hawks said:
... I agree that the study is quite flawed, but I will take the business of looking ahead under advisement. As I become a senior rider, I will use anything I can to give me more time in the saddle and less in the hospital

Couldn't agree more. There are plenty of things we all can learn from this report, the Hurt Report and by simply employing the MSF and other safe-riding habits to extend our ability to enjoy riding for a long as desired.

jgoertz · Nov 25, 2016

The Ok-State study -- designed to update/replace the Hurt Report -- is called the Motorcycle Crash Causation Study. Google it. As you'll find, it still has not been released to the wild.

rags · Nov 26, 2016

PGlaves said:
So they had a total of 30 "crashes" and half of these were tip-overs at zero or near zero speed. That left 15 or so actual crashes. Drawing conclusions from this sample is fraught with peril - the sample is just too small. They might find this many on one group ride to Sturgis.

From a medical view you need a "25-sample" to be considered viable. So a 15-sample is a bit light, still interesting though.

36654 · Nov 26, 2016

rags said:
From a medical view you need a "25-sample" to be considered viable. So a 15-sample is a bit light, still interesting though.

25? Sounds small. IIRC, I need 63 samples to get a 95% confidence level on a mean value.

pglaves · Nov 26, 2016

36654 said:
25? Sounds small. IIRC, I need 63 samples to get a 95% confidence level on a mean value.

Maybe with one variable. But with as many variables as might present themselves in motorcycle crashes I would suspect a lot more cases than that would be highly desirable in order to draw actual conclusions.

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