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Thread: Not a fatality if wearing a helmet?

  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by PoorUB View Post
    I wonder if there is any correlation between accidents and miles ridden? I would think that experience would reduce the chances of an accident.
    I would think that while the odds of an accident on a single ride may be low, the odds increase with number of rides. For example if the odds of getting hit by lightning standing in a field during a storm are 1:100, then the chance of getting hit doing it 100 times are virtually 100%. So while I may be a safer rider after 100 rides, my odds are still greater, even though my “experience “ lowered the odds on each individual ride.

  2. #47
    Registered User 36654's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by glenfiddich View Post
    But is the lack of an MC endorsement causation, or simply an artifact? (Correlation does not equal causation in many cases.) In your example, a person buys a new bike in PA without a license, but with the intention of practicing a bit before applying for the endorsement. During those practice sessions, he is killed in a crash.

    Is the lack of an endorsement a contributing factor...or the lack of experience? Much of the crash data measure one, but not the other.

    Pete
    Well, they’re potentially operating a vehicle on the public streets with no training or exam. To me, that seems to be a non-optimal situation.
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  3. #48
    Registered User CABNFVR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rick601 View Post
    I would think that while the odds of an accident on a single ride may be low, the odds increase with number of rides. ...
    Actually statistics don't work that way. Your odds are your odds, different day doesn't change anything. Seems wrong, but its right.
    "Have BMW. Will Travel"

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by rick601 View Post
    I would think that while the odds of an accident on a single ride may be low, the odds increase with number of rides. For example if the odds of getting hit by lightning standing in a field during a storm are 1:100, then the chance of getting hit doing it 100 times are virtually 100%. So while I may be a safer rider after 100 rides, my odds are still greater, even though my “experience “ lowered the odds on each individual ride.

    I will agree that the risk if an accident might increase with miles ridden, but then drop again as experience increases. Also miles ridden per year would matter more than total miles over a lifetime. In other words, some that rides 1,000 miles a year for twenty years doesn't hold the same value as some that rides 10,000 per year. In the last 15 years I have ridden 200,000 miles and one off road adventure that was not very serious. I work with a guy that put on 1,000 miles a year for fourteen years and darn near killed himself a couple years back. He stopped ridding. I have had cars pull out in front of me that I avoided and have no idea how I did it, all reaction, no thought process, just toss the motorcycle over, then back and whip around the car, missed them by that much! My wife has been on back and commented on how the heck I avoided it.
    From the only real Fargo, ND!

  5. #50
    The notion that a rider with no training and limited experience could buy a Hayabusa or S1000RR and hop on and head out into traffic is absurd. But it is true in most states. Sheesh!
    Paul Glaves - "Big Bend", Texas U.S.A
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  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by CABNFVR View Post
    Actually statistics don't work that way. Your odds are your odds, different day doesn't change anything. Seems wrong, but its right.
    Like if you flip a coin heads fifty times in a row, the odds of heads on the 51st flip are still 50/50...statistically true but I don't think I'd let all my winnings ride on the 51st flip!

    Related in a way: If I have one foot in a bucket of boiling water and one in a bucket of ice...on average I'm quite comfortable.

    or: My parents stopped having kids after 3 of us because they read that every fourth child born is Chinese

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  7. #52
    Registered User crna59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PGlaves View Post
    The notion that a rider with no training and limited experience could buy a Hayabusa or S1000RR and hop on and head out into traffic is absurd. But it is true in most states. Sheesh!
    You would not believe the folks that attend my classes and want to buy a Sport bike...... even though they passed on a Scooter!!!!
    Bruce A. Brown #212072
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  8. #53
    Registered User jr31's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PGlaves View Post
    The notion that a rider with no training and limited experience could buy a Hayabusa or S1000RR and hop on and head out into traffic is absurd. But it is true in most states. Sheesh!
    Why is that absurd? Ill-advised? Maybe. Dangerous? Possibly.

    If the great wonder called "the State" sees fit to act as accreditation authority (which is the actual absurdity here) and grants said rider an endorsement, what's the problem? As licensure is clearly just a racketeering scheme supported by the State, is the idea to increase the revenue the State collects?

    No, thanks.

    You pay your money, you get your stuff. Warning: it might kill you. You might hurt someone else.

    In other news, life is wildly unfair and inequitable.

    Enjoy!

  9. #54
    Registered User jr31's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 36654 View Post
    Well, they’re potentially operating a vehicle on the public streets with no training or exam. To me, that seems to be a non-optimal situation.
    It's optimal if they're doing it at Disney World or The Sea Ranch (i.e, on private roads)?

  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by 36654 View Post
    Well, they’re potentially operating a vehicle on the public streets with no training or exam. To me, that seems to be a non-optimal situation.
    Decades ago, before being allowed to ride my bike onto MCB Camp Lejeune, I had to take a very intensive two week long course. Having spent my teen years on dirt bikes the hands on portion was easy, but the things I learned about threats I'd never even considered before have kept me aware - and safe - through the years.

    Skip forward 35 years and I took the MSF course with my wife so she wouldn't feel alone. I was appalled at how little of value was covered! It prepared her for low speed putting around an empty parking lot. But she got her endorsement.

    My point is that the presence of an M on your license is not a good indicator of competence. But neither is experience as evidenced by those who have been riding for years repeating the same ride and the same mistakes time after time.

    Pete
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  11. #56
    SURVIVOR akbeemer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by glenfiddich View Post
    Decades ago, before being allowed to ride my bike onto MCB Camp Lejeune, I had to take a very intensive two week long course. Having spent my teen years on dirt bikes the hands on portion was easy, but the things I learned about threats I'd never even considered before have kept me aware - and safe - through the years.

    Skip forward 35 years and I took the MSF course with my wife so she wouldn't feel alone. I was appalled at how little of value was covered! It prepared her for low speed putting around an empty parking lot. But she got her endorsement.

    My point is that the presence of an M on your license is not a good indicator of competence. But neither is experience as evidenced by those who have been riding for years repeating the same ride and the same mistakes time after time.

    Pete
    The Marine Corps provided the impetus for what is now called the Advanced Rider Course. The Army and MC were suffering significant loss to motorcycle accidents. Soldiers and Marines were coming home from deployments with cash saved while they had no place to spend it and buying the high powered bike of their dreams. More were injured and killed on their motorcycles than in combat.
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  12. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by jr31 View Post
    Why is that absurd? Ill-advised? Maybe. Dangerous? Possibly.

    If the great wonder called "the State" sees fit to act as accreditation authority (which is the actual absurdity here) and grants said rider an endorsement, what's the problem? As licensure is clearly just a racketeering scheme supported by the State, is the idea to increase the revenue the State collects?

    No, thanks.

    You pay your money, you get your stuff. Warning: it might kill you. You might hurt someone else.

    In other news, life is wildly unfair and inequitable.

    Enjoy!
    Reading comprehension counts. Reread my post. I was referring to folks buying these bikes without having an endorsement: "no training and limited experience" is what I wrote Your anti-state diatribe notwithstanding I continue to say no license, no purchase. Sure, this will in some cases lead to strawman purchases but at least it reinforces the notion that actually having some training and a license is a good idea before you buy a superbike.
    Paul Glaves - "Big Bend", Texas U.S.A
    "The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem in a way that will allow a solution." - Bertrand Russell
    http://web.bigbend.net/~glaves/

  13. #58
    Registered User jr31's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PGlaves View Post
    Reading comprehension counts. Reread my post. I was referring to folks buying these bikes without having an endorsement: "no training and limited experience" is what I wrote Your anti-state diatribe notwithstanding I continue to say no license, no purchase. Sure, this will in some cases lead to strawman purchases but at least it reinforces the notion that actually having some training and a license is a good idea before you buy a superbike.
    Does it? I'm not sure you understand what you've written. And it's certainly clear you definitely don't understand what I have written.

    Let's make it easier, shall we? Why should anyone have an endorsement/license? Because you say so?

    Your pro-State/anti-results bias notwithstanding, nothing you suggest extends beyond contribution to a racket. Tell your friends; you heard it here.

    Good ideas infrequently require force. Make no mistake, force is what you are suggesting.

  14. #59
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    I bought Yamaha R1 a couple years back, never been on a sportbike, but 50 years of riding experience. Freaking thing was scary fast. I can't imagine selling one to a 19 year old with zero riding experience. Some states have a step system in place for motorcycle endorsement. You need to spend some time on a smaller size motorcycle before you can move up to a larger bike. Might be two, three steps to get on a 1,000 cc.
    From the only real Fargo, ND!

  15. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by jr31 View Post

    Let's make it easier, shall we? Why should anyone have an endorsement/license? Because you say so?
    Of course not! It is because it is the law in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. You don't like those laws. That is your right. But until those laws are changed your opinion doesn't really matter as to whether an endorsement is or isn't required.

    As to whether it is a good idea, I agree that some training in some states sucks. But your anarchist viewpoint won't change that either.
    Paul Glaves - "Big Bend", Texas U.S.A
    "The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem in a way that will allow a solution." - Bertrand Russell
    http://web.bigbend.net/~glaves/

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