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Thread: An Inconvenient Truth

  1. #76
    Cannonball Rider #52 darrylri's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandyB View Post
    Good thing this debate is electronic or it would be two degrees warmer, globally, by now.


    Hey, my computer's getting warmer.
    --Darryl Richman, forum liaison
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  2. #77
    univers zero tessler's Avatar
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    Hi! I'm back!

    Quote Originally Posted by kreinke View Post
    Actually I'm a social liberal (leaning toward progressive) fiscal
    conservative. Regardless, leaders should lead by example.
    I'm diggin that progressive part (that's my insurance company!). So, wai.. .wai.. Shouldn't that apply to all leaders and not the few mentioned above?

    Quote Originally Posted by kreinke View Post
    Because they're friggin' hypocrites. They are all for shoving higher taxes and such down the little guy's throat as long as it doesn't cause any harm to them.
    Interesting... so that's who's been shoving taxes down my throat!

    Quote Originally Posted by kreinke View Post
    What do these people have to do with anything? Oh yeah, the Home Depot dude sells energy efficient appliances and insulation to make people's homes more "green".
    Now you get me!

    Quote Originally Posted by kreinke View Post
    What you are and what you do is the personification of what you stand for.
    I agree with that.

    Quote Originally Posted by kreinke View Post
    Tessler, most respectfully, following that logic I'd have to believe Saddam Hussein is "pro life" if he said he was against abortion.
    eh... uhm... well... Shouldn't that be "...Saddam Hussein was "pro life..."

    Quote Originally Posted by kreinke View Post
    Gotta agree with you there. Ed's one of the nicest guys around.
    Yay! Common grounds (like my daily coffee ) I was thinking about suggesting we invite Ed as a special guest for the next West Coast Rally. He's be quite an interesting person to talk to.

    This thread has been very entertaining! I can't keep up with Darryl and Mike‘«Ųthose guys are smoking me‘«Ųbut it's been a really cool ride.

  3. #78
    Registered User MOTOR31's Avatar
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    Once again you are missing the point. You clamor that since the term "contribute" was used it means a definitive causative situation. I merely used an example to show that reliance on a non precise, ill defined term like "contribute" is a poor way to determine how to fix something or to even show a causative relationship. "Contribute", without further definition such as percentage covers a spectrum that is rather vast. If the scientists that draft the report are either unwilling or (possibly / probably ?) unable to determine HOW MUCH the factor is contributing to the situation then you cannot claim that that factor is the root cause of the global climate change. The term "contributing" does not quantify the contribution and it's direct relational effect.

    I really can't explain it any clearer.

    Your explanation that the administration is agreeing with the premise that green house gasses are a factor again does not prove the relational aspect of the contribution. Your premise that it must be more than 1% is unsupported and is just your opinion. We are talking political statements from a political entity (administration) here in answer to political power being brought to bear by other political influences.

    I don't disagree that there is a contributory situation. I do disagee on the premise that we are the root cause of climate change. That begs the situation that why were there climate changes, rather significant ones in fact, before industrialized society ever existed.






    Quote Originally Posted by DarrylRi View Post
    If you read the report, you'll see that NOAA begs off defining how much the greenhouse gases contribute. But the mere fact that a pro-development administration is forced to admit that we are making the world hotter because we are producing lots more CO2, means to me that it can't be your trivial 1% contribution, but is something much higher.

    So, people don't kill people; guns kill people? What you are missing in your hypothetical example is that we have lots of data that show that this trend didn't occur until we started producing excess CO2 in vast quantities. We had a "mini-ice age" a couple centuries ago, for example. It's only since mass industrialization that the trend has been up, way up. It's not people that are creating the greenhouse, but people in industrialized societies. Silverware was around long before mass obesity; it's not the silverware's fault, but the abundance of food and lack of exercise.
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  4. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by tessler View Post
    Now, if you want a fella who drives a nice, responsible vehicle...
    is there a bicycle somewhere amidst all those autos?


  5. #80
    Registered User Bob_M's Avatar
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    Should it matter?

    If climate change is happening and it will result in a rise in sea level significant enough to drown low lying cities should it matter what is the cause? I would love to blame Bush but the problems were building long before he chose to ignore them. We should stop trying to place blame and parse the syntax and put our combined energies together to devise solutions.

  6. #81
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob_M View Post
    We should stop trying to place blame and parse the syntax and put our combined energies together to devise solutions.
    Hear hear!!
    Jim Titus
    2007 R1200GS Adventure
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  7. #82
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    Motor31,

    i'm digging this discussion. thanks for taking the time to thoughtfully and civilly reply to all the conversations going on, this is nice.

    i snipped bits and pieces of your reply to get clarification. we agree on most of this, and i find you eminently reasonable. in fact, i think you and i have the same basic opinion of global warming.

    Quote Originally Posted by Motor31 View Post
    Secondly I do not think that 100% proof exists, nor did I state in any of my posts that I required or asked for 100% proof.
    i would argue that if something happens, 100% proof for it exists. we may not comprehend it, but it exists. the earth is definitely heating up, and there is definitely a good explanation for why.

    i'm trying to get an idea what % it would take. as an example, pretend i am an atheist. i have a friend who wants me to believe in the catholic version of a god. i tell him i'm not buying it. he says, "what would it take?" and i think that's a valid question. so i think about it. basically, his god would need to appear in front of me and perform a series of tasks that demonstrate my understanding of omniscience and omnipotence. make ten coffee tables materialize in the living room. i will shoot one of the squirrels outside and kill it - resurrect it. read my mind. fly around a little bit, maybe do a barrell roll. then look me in the eye and say, "i'm the catholic god, you better join that religion." boom, i'd be reciting the rosary in seconds. (i realize that the catholic god requires faith, and that's part of the package, and all that stuff, blah blah blah.)

    so when someone tells me they doubt something, or that they dont believe it, i always want to know, "what will it take for you to believe it?"

    so that's what i'm really asking you.

    Quote Originally Posted by Motor31 View Post
    Thirdly I do not believe that humans are required in any way for global climate change to occur. There is ample evidence that the earth has gone through more than one of each cycle prior to human industrial society development.
    this is fallacious - it does not disprove human cause for global warming.

    banana peels are not required to make me lose my footing and slip on the floor. i could slip on soap, i could slip on plain old water, all manner of things. if i were to slip and fall, and you and i needed to determine why i fell, and i said, "i might have slipped on a banana" would you say, "no, it was not a banana, because there are other things to slip and fall on, therefore it was not a banana."

    (i don't think you would.)

    Quote Originally Posted by Motor31 View Post
    I do have to state that I do not believe you will find any post I made that said I didn’t believe that humans could not exacerbate a naturally occurring climate change.
    good point, and i totally agree with you.

    Quote Originally Posted by Motor31 View Post
    It’s not my job to present a definition to a proof.
    ahhhh, the old "it's not my job" excuse. it's not your job to ride BMW bikes, it's not your job to post on this forum, it's not your job to have breakfast - the list of things that you do that are not your job is endless. so you can do one more thing - envision the proof you require. humor me.

    Quote Originally Posted by Motor31 View Post
    What I object to is a simplification that man is the only cause of global climate change, of either direction. Contributor, quite probably, possibly definitely, but sole cause, nope. That type of theory totally denies that there is any planetary dynamic at all outside of human presence. That theory is baseless just on the face of it since there were climate changes before humans even arrived on the planet. I don’t have that high of an opinion of mans capabilities that at this level of development he can disrupt a planets heat cycle short of widespread nuclear exchange.
    this is also fallacious. here is another analogy:

    millions of species have gone extinct over time. all of the sudden there are very few whooping cranes/buffalo/wolves/whatever. it is reported to people in a part of america where everyone is really ignorant. they have never seen a whooping crane, and they do not understand the concept of hunting an animal, nor of destroying its habitat and preventing it from easily reproducing in numbers sufficient to maintain the population. they just have no concept. some guy goes to this town and says, "man is the reason all the whooping cranes are gone." and some townsperson says, "ahhh, shaddup. millions of species have gone extinct before man EVER EVEN EXISTED! so man did not cause the whooping cranes to disappear." the visitor says, "the wetlands have been drained, and they hunted them all." the townsperson says, "whats a wetland? huh? and what is this hunting? is that like when you cant find what you want at the bodega, and you gotta go across the street?"

    now obviously if these people were smart and had access to the data/information, they'd easily understand that the key thing causing the demise of whooping cranes is man. and in real life, we did figure that out, we modified our behavior, we protected their bodies and their homes, and they have recovered. we understood the cause and effect. but dismissing the causality because we lack the ability to comprehend the causality is not how you disprove a theory.

    i agree that the earth has gone through bazillions of climate changes in the past - but that fact does not disprove the theory that man is causing the current one.

    Quote Originally Posted by Motor31 View Post
    While I appreciate your statement of opinion of my intelligence or even educational background, your opinion of my opinion is yours to deal with. It’s not my responsibility to influence it. I do have to tell you that numerous folks have said I was not reasonable simply because I didn’t see things their way. You may weight it any way you want. You will anyhow particularly if it doesn’t fit your opinion of the subject.
    i think you are very intelligent, but ignorant on this issue. this is NOT an insult. i am really ignorant too. i think i know just enough to tell when someone else doesnt know anything either, but not nearly enough to figure out what is going on. so i cannot place emphasis on the conclusions you have drawn. and i totally agree with you that this is MY thing to deal with, and because you are patient, thoughtful, and kind, i was able to do so. i'm serious, i have a lot of respect for you taking the time to discuss this like this.

    Quote Originally Posted by Motor31 View Post
    As far as doing something to reduce my impact on the planet, that’s been done. I live on far less ground, less housing square footage, use 50 amps or less draw of electricity maximum and far less in the way of fossil fuels to maintain my home in the comfort level. Heck I even walk to the corner store for things like bread and milk.

    Until self avowed tree huggers limit themselves to a 400 Sq. Ft or less home like I do they will have a hard time stating they are living in a more ecologically friendly.
    keep setting that good example, and keep being so cool that you discuss things with people like this. we need more of you in this country/world.

  8. #83
    Registered User MOTOR31's Avatar
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    Thanks for the compliment and I mean it sincerely. This is a volatile subject and there is already enough "heat" in most of the debates about it already.

    To answer your main remaining question, what kind of proof would I require? I really can't give you an answer. That is exactly the type of question a saleman asks their next victim (customer ) to allow a narrowing of the negotiation and bring both sides to a closer agreement. The best response is to say..... basically nothing. Narrowing the negotiation is an invitation to closing the deal. In discussing this you are trying to bring me to your way of thinking or in other words closing the deal. No deal.

    I'll know convicing evidence when I see it. Right now, to date, I have not seen evidence that people are the root cause of this global climate change. I have seen allegations, opinions and outright claims, but no evidence. There has been no indication that al other variables have been excluded to determine that people are the definitive cause.

    Frankly given that there is only one ecosystem and the observers cannot run a controlled test on another (time might also be a restrictive factor) ecosystem without also being in the system (contamination vs objectivity) it's going to be hard to eliminate all of the variables. I'm also not really sure they can explain what caused the other climate changes. There certainly is a shortage of data from first hand observations and I mean actual observation not extrapolation.

    While I am not from Missouri I am of the show me persuation. I am a skeptic and not a trusting person. I want to see the evidence. Show me the data, how it was obtained, process of analysis, correlations, exclusions and so on. I have had enough experiance with statistics that I am no longer impressed by them. I don't want opinions, I definitely do not want political posturing and election shenanigans, I want data. It will also have to be rather convincing to make me believe that this global warming is the sole responsibility of people. Let me state definitively that my major problem with the global warming controversy is not that there has been global climate change, it is with the premise that it is all because of people.
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  9. #84
    ian408
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    I for one am glad there is a civil discussion going on. I've learned from it and also
    been able to look at the situation from a fresh viewpoint.

  10. #85
    callmethebreeze
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    Influencing with Integrity, a novel concept........

    Breeze

  11. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by Motor31 View Post
    Username,

    Thanks for the compliment and I mean it sincerely. This is a volatile subject and there is already enough "heat" in most of the debates about it already.

    To answer your main remaining question, what kind of proof would I require? I really can't give you an answer. That is exactly the type of question a saleman asks their next victim (customer ) to allow a narrowing of the negotiation and bring both sides to a closer agreement. The best response is to say..... basically nothing. Narrowing the negotiation is an invitation to closing the deal. In discussing this you are trying to bring me to your way of thinking or in other words closing the deal. No deal.
    i hear what youre saying. i wish i knew the answer and was trying to ensnare you with poorly disguised vacuum claner salesman techniques! my problem is that i don't have a way of thinking or position to lure you into. my thoughts are nearly identical to yours - i have seen no concrete proof that *my* brain can grok and call "right." but i worry that's more a limitation of my brain, and seek truth in other ways. i'm still searching for the skeptic who can tell me what they need for proof (on a range of topics, not just global warming. i find i have more questions than answers to just about everything.)

    i think i'm doing what you are doing - waiting for something concrete, and in the meantime, doing things to reduce my own impact on the planet. compared to you, i've done nothing, but relative to where i was a few years ago, i'm improving.

    i find that i like people who are for whatever reason trying to reduce their impact on the planet and move towards a sustainable way of life, and i suspect people who "know" the answers to these sorts of things, despite lacking the credentials and mental horsepower to truly develop a comprehensive problem statement, let alone posit a solution.

    this has been a fun discussion, thanks. if we ever meet, i'll buy you a beer, and as an added bonus, i won't make you drink it with me.

  12. #87
    Cannonball Rider #52 darrylri's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Motor31 View Post
    Once again you are missing the point. You clamor that since the term "contribute" was used it means a definitive causative situation.
    I don't believe I am missing the point. You claim that the meaning of "contribute" doesn't necessarily imply a causative link, and, in this context, I believe it does. I've cited a dictionary entry before, and I just looked in my Websters, which says that it means:
    Quote Originally Posted by Webster's New Collegiate Dictionary, (c) 1981 by G. & C. Merriam Co.
    "to play a significant part in bringing about an end or result"
    To me it couldn't be clearer what "contribute" means, that the actor is a causative agent, at least in part, to bringing about a result. I just don't see how you can twist a different meaning out of that. And it also means that the actor is a significant part, a substantial part of bringing about the result, a large enough part that one would notice the absence of the actor. If you want to continue to imitate Humpty Dumpty from Alice in Wonderland ("A word means what I want it to mean, nothing more, nothing less"), I'm afraid you'll have to get a different correspondant.

    The fact that neither NOAA nor I can give you a precise percentage contribution of man's activities to global temperature rise doesn't mean that they are insignificant; it only means that the data are imprecise. NOAA wouldn't issue a statement linking them if it weren't beyond the 95% confidence level that is usually applied in statistics. And especially not the NOAA in this adminstration.

    "Contribute", without further definition such as percentage covers a spectrum that is rather vast. If the scientists that draft the report are either unwilling or (possibly / probably ?) unable to determine HOW MUCH the factor is contributing to the situation then you cannot claim that that factor is the root cause of the global climate change. The term "contributing" does not quantify the contribution and it's direct relational effect.
    Perhaps this is the crux of the matter. I am not claiming that humanity's activity is THE root cause of global warming; I am saying that it is A cause, possibly one of several. NOAA says that it is a "significant" cause.

    If I could show you that humanity's actions are absolutely providing between 20% and 80% of global warming, would you still want to ignore the contribution? Tell me that I'm not understanding you, because this is what I think you're saying.

    Just because science can't give you an exact, 3 significant digit figure, doesn't mean that it can't say that it's happening. Weather and climate have occuppied the fastest computers we can build for more than half a century, and will likely continue to do so. But we can see from the direct data we collect, and indirect data we find in the historical record (tree rings, ice cores, fossil data and so on) that industrialization has had a big effect on climate and it is accelerating.
    --Darryl Richman, forum liaison
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  13. #88
    Cannonball Rider #52 darrylri's Avatar
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    Just to continue the discussion, the following article is over on MSNBC:

    Exxon cuts ties to global warming skeptics
    Oil giant also in talks to look at curbing greenhouse gases


    MSNBC staff and news service reports
    Updated: 6:43 a.m. PT Jan 12, 2007
    NEW YORK - Oil major Exxon Mobil Corp. is engaging in industry talks on possible U.S. greenhouse gas emissions regulations and has stopped funding groups skeptical of global warming claims — moves that some say could indicate a change in stance from the long-time foe of limits on heat-trapping gases.

    Exxon, along with representatives from about 20 other companies, is participating in talks sponsored by Resources for the Future, a Washington, D.C., nonprofit. The think tank said it expected the talks would generate a report in the fall with recommendations to legislators on how to regulate greenhouse emissions.
    It seems that Exxon Mobil is conceding that their own products are contributing to global warming and they have decided it's better to get in on drafting what regulations are going to be coming down the line. This is a pragmatic action by a company that is conerned about its future profits, and it would seem that they can see the writing on the wall.
    --Darryl Richman, forum liaison
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  14. #89
    Registered User MOTOR31's Avatar
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    This is one of the problems in dealing with ill defined terminology to try and define a finite situation. Your connotation is that contribute = causing. My connotation is that contribute = assisting not necessarily causing or even the majority of the input. That does not mean they are unrelated but I will not accept that contribute = majority of the input. Like I said before without quantification of the contribution to fully define the verbage used you cannot asign the responsibility for the action.

    Last example. I contributed to and voted for say..... Bush (heck pick the President you want it's all the same for this example) so therefore that is a significant part, a substantial part of bringing about his taking office. Now it follows that my contribution, financially and vote wise, was he was elected. I contributed right?

    If you don't want to agree, fine, we'll just have to agree to disagree. Semantics is a very slipery subject. I won't accept a dictionary definition for a scientific issue that requires quantification to establish the actual meaning. Connotations aside. To paraphrase one of my favorite sci fi authors if it's science it is quantifiable. If it cannot be explained in mathematics it is not science. If the scientists are unwilling to assign a specific number to the percentage, I won't assign one for them and I don't accept one assigned for them.

    Now please do not think that I am saying there is no global warming going on. There is. I am not convinced that humans are the reason the globe is warming. Possibly helping it, yep but I'm unconvinced that humans are to blame that the globe is in a warming cycle, I'm more likely to agree that the globe entered a warming cycle and humans are having an impact to assist it.


    Quote Originally Posted by DarrylRi View Post
    I don't believe I am missing the point. You claim that the meaning of "contribute" doesn't necessarily imply a causative link, and, in this context, I believe it does. I've cited a dictionary entry before, and I just looked in my Websters, which says that it means:

    To me it couldn't be clearer what "contribute" means, that the actor is a causative agent, at least in part, to bringing about a result. I just don't see how you can twist a different meaning out of that. And it also means that the actor is a significant part, a substantial part of bringing about the result, a large enough part that one would notice the absence of the actor. If you want to continue to imitate Humpty Dumpty from Alice in Wonderland ("A word means what I want it to mean, nothing more, nothing less"), I'm afraid you'll have to get a different correspondant.

    The fact that neither NOAA nor I can give you a precise percentage contribution of man's activities to global temperature rise doesn't mean that they are insignificant; it only means that the data are imprecise. NOAA wouldn't issue a statement linking them if it weren't beyond the 95% confidence level that is usually applied in statistics. And especially not the NOAA in this adminstration.


    Perhaps this is the crux of the matter. I am not claiming that humanity's activity is THE root cause of global warming; I am saying that it is A cause, possibly one of several. NOAA says that it is a "significant" cause.

    If I could show you that humanity's actions are absolutely providing between 20% and 80% of global warming, would you still want to ignore the contribution? Tell me that I'm not understanding you, because this is what I think you're saying.

    Just because science can't give you an exact, 3 significant digit figure, doesn't mean that it can't say that it's happening. Weather and climate have occuppied the fastest computers we can build for more than half a century, and will likely continue to do so. But we can see from the direct data we collect, and indirect data we find in the historical record (tree rings, ice cores, fossil data and so on) that industrialization has had a big effect on climate and it is accelerating.
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  15. #90
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    Thumbs up Global warming

    Darn, sure wish that warming would get a little stronger here in Minnesota. Can't quite solve the GS fever at 9 degrees (high today).

    Seriously. What if we are causing it? What to do? Is everyone going to give up their homes, autos, jobs, businesses, hospitals, etc.. etc. and go back to life on the prarie? It seems that those that seem in such a fuss would indicate it.... But wait doesn't Al Gore make these 'fact finding' trips in the ole jet? Doesn't the very scientists making the claims also get a lot of research money they'd lose if they stated it was 'just natural cycles'?

    Reminds me of the time I saw a concert to 'save the trees' in the rainforest.. I counted.. the entertainer had over 18 guitars on stage made out of exotic woods.... hmmmm.

    Look, I think we all need to work towards conserving while preserving our way of life as best as possible; and I think the United States is leading the way (anybody remember Pittsburgh and Cleveland say 30 years ago; when everyone stated an ice age was coming lol?) regardless of how everyone seems to think we're evil incarnate.

    Meanwhile I'm dreaming of enough warming (say 25 degrees) so I can hit the road!
    Beemerrick

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