$$$$. Fuel

mikegalbicka said:

And the fact of the matter is this first world problem of ours seems trivial in the light of true suffering by others elsewhere.

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This. All. Day. Long.

This fuel situation is sorta like a guy whacking his thumb with a hammer while driving a nail. It helps him to get past the pain by realizing how insignificant his is when compared to the pain and suffering of people caught up in wars and natural disasters. But the anger at the pain being self inflicted is not so easy to get over. To a very large degree the pain Americans are feeling due to our fuel issues is self-inflicted, and that increases their anger. Sadly, it appears as a nation we shall continue on a path of energy suicide. Lord help us if we run short of fuel to heat our homes, propel the trucks/trains/ships/aircraft that keep us fed, and gets us to work everyday. People will likely not behave very well.

akbeemer said:

This fuel situation is sorta like a guy whacking his thumb with a hammer while driving a nail. It helps him to get past the pain by realizing how insignificant his is when compared to the pain and suffering of people caught up in wars and natural disasters. But the anger at the pain being self inflicted is not so easy to get over. To a very large degree the pain Americans are feeling due to our fuel issues is self-inflicted, and that increases their anger. Sadly, it appears as a nation we shall continue on a path of energy suicide. Lord help us if we run short of fuel to heat our homes, propel the trucks/trains/ships/aircraft that keep us fed, and gets us to work everyday. People will likely not behave very well.

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Dare i say…you hit the nail on the head!

I can't locate the interview as luck would have it, but a recent FOX News episode showcased that the rising fuel costs have been increasing steadily since the last Presidential election. The gentlemen used data from eia.gov and commented that to suddenly blame the Russian invasion as the cause is a bit foolish (his words)

RPGR90s said:

...a recent FOX News episode showcased that...

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Yeah, that's a "news" source I would trust...

It's going to get worse before it gets better. My missus is the best I've ever seen at following the buoying ball making predictions on what she sees in the news. Next year could be a whole lot worse. Makes me glad we grow most of our own food.

RPGR90s said:

the rising fuel costs have been increasing steadily since the last Presidential election. )

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That's been true in the Midwest, then recently it really took off .

Factually, the increase began with the relaxation of Covid restrictions and increased demand for travel, and shipping, and thus fuel.

PGlaves said:

Factually, the increase began with the relaxation of Covid restrictions and increased demand for travel, and shipping, and thus fuel.

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And last month Financial Times magazine reported the top 7 oil companies (which includes Chevron, Shell, Exxon Mobil, and BP) would be returning to shareholders, via stock buybacks, north of 38 billion dollars—and this after paying out 50 billion in dividends. The oil companies lowered production when Covid lowered demand, haven’t yet ramped up production enough to meet the sudden surge in demand, and oil companies have made near-record profits on that spread. Meanwhile, there are currently some 9000 already-issued drilling leases on public lands that are not being utilized.

Follow the money…

Best,
DeVern

GTRider said:

Follow the money…

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Yes.

ALWAYS follow the money.

SPP

So we have supply, demand, and SENTIMENT all acting both on current markets and, maybe more importantly, on the futures market. Fear of short supply (bans on leases released, stopping pipelines, more travel, an administration hostile to IC) Dependency on "iffy" sources, speculation, greed, hedging future supply needs against current need etc etc etc... I'm thinking there are a lot of moving parts here. For the future, a reliable domestic supply in concert with alternative sources development may be best for us AND the world.


Highlights
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Investor sentiment, captured by several proxies, affects oil prices and volatility.

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Investor sentiment can predict oil companies' share prices.

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Volatility shocks spill over from investor sentiment to the oil market.

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Unanticipated shocks to oil prices have a significant effect on investor sentiment.

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Retail investors increase their attention to the oil market in response to greater oil price movements.

Abstract
The literature on oil prices considers real economic factors as the main drivers of changes in oil prices. Using parametric and nonparametric methods, this study provides evidence that behavioral factors have the power to predict oil price movements. Based on monthly, weekly and daily data for 1986 to 2016, we find that investor sentiment, captured by nine different proxies, has a significant effect on oil prices. In addition, we demonstrate that volatility in these sentiment indices spills over and can explain part of the volatility in oil prices.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988317303766

And from investopedia:Abstract
Unlike most products, oil prices are not determined entirely by supply, demand, and market sentiment toward the physical product. Rather, supply, demand, and sentiment toward oil futures contracts, which are traded heavily by speculators, play a dominant role in price determination. Cyclical trends in the commodities market may also play a role.

rick601 said:

And from investopedia:Abstract
Unlike most products, oil prices are not determined entirely by supply, demand, and market sentiment toward the physical product. Rather, supply, demand, and sentiment toward oil futures contracts, which are traded heavily by speculators, play a dominant role in price determination. Cyclical trends in the commodities market may also play a role.

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Is this like members of Congress leaving congressional intelligence briefings and buying defense contractor stocks?

PGlaves said:

Is this like members of Congress leaving congressional intelligence briefings and buying defense contractor stocks?

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No. Speculation is when you DON’T know the outcome.

r0ckrat said:

Yeah, that's a "news" source I would trust...

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Compared to......MSNBC? lol

Trust has nothing to do with it. One has to disseminate the information provided and do your homework.

Actual Journalism is absent from all media sources nowadays.

GTRider said:

And last month Financial Times magazine reported the top 7 oil companies (which includes Chevron, Shell, Exxon Mobil, and BP) would be returning to shareholders, via stock buybacks, north of 38 billion dollars—and this after paying out 50 billion in dividends. The oil companies lowered production when Covid lowered demand, haven’t yet ramped up production enough to meet the sudden surge in demand, and oil companies have made near-record profits on that spread. Meanwhile, there are currently some 9000 already-issued drilling leases on public lands that are not being utilized.

Follow the money…

Best,
DeVern

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Is this where I point out that in 2020 oil companies received $5.9T in subsidies?

Do we really need to keep providing that level of subsidies and assistance if they're making enough to spend $50 billion buying their stock back?

We are paying at the pump and we are sending them a check every year so they can continue to screw us. You want a swamp? There it is. Houston.

RPGR90s said:

Compared to......MSNBC? lol

Trust has nothing to do with it. One has to disseminate the information provided and draw one's own conclusions.

Actual Journalism is absent from both ANY media source nowadays.

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This kind of logical fallacy is referred to as "false equivalence" or, depending on how it was used, a "hasty generalization".

Just sayin'.

There's a point where skepticism, which is healthy, turns into cynicism, who is skepticism's destructive and unproductive brother. Comments like that are closer to the latter than the former.

Sometime you just got to laugh

kbasa said:

Is this where I point out that in 2020 oil companies received $5.9T in subsidies?

Do we really need to keep providing that level of subsidies and assistance if they're making enough to spend $50 billion buying their stock back?

We are paying at the pump and we are sending them a check every year so they can continue to screw us. You want a swamp? There it is. Houston.

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https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fa...-closer-look-at-tax-breaks-and-societal-costs

I would vote to eliminate any subsidies.

And if oil companies are colluding to set prices artificially high in the marketplace, I think there's laws against that also.

Let's please not blame Capitalism here when the Government is in bed quite deeply with Big Oil.

RPGR90s said:

I would vote to eliminate any subsidies.

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Unfortunately, you don’t get a vote and you can not afford to buy the votes like big oil can.

98lee said:

Unfortunately, you don’t get a vote and you can not afford to buy the votes like big oil can.

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you are quite correct.