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A Comprehensive Article About Chip Manufacturing for Cars/Motorcycles

Interesting. I reminded that in the waning days of the Space Shuttle program NASA was buying used desk top computers headed to the scrap heap so they could salvage the "386" processors which were the backbone of all the systems on the shuttles. This after the "386" chips were no longer being made.
 
Chip obsolescence has long been a severe problems, especially with Military applications. The military uses "old" tech for a very long time..20 0or 30 year is not un-common. So a 10 year auto motive "life" is not unusual.

I see this a primarily an automotive industry screw up of not forecasting their needs to semiconductor suppliers properly. However, if the the auto forecast for "old" technology is of the volume that does not financially justify keeping old semiconductor manufacturing line open ( or they are not will to pay higher prices to do so). They will be out of luck.

Off shoreing...seeking low cost sources has exacerbated this. Promises made and not kept.

Covid also has contributed to this problem too.

The whole EV explosion is another issue. This involve power semiconductors and other unique devices that have typically not been needed in high volumes.
Add to this the very strong push to make the EV power and control electronics less lossy / more efficient ( more miles per charge / less wasted heat in the control system) has spurred significant research for new power electronic devices. Durability and reliability will be problem....a very challenging time for those engineers in the business.

Rapid technology growing pains.
 
Chip obsolescence has long been a severe problems, especially with Military applications. The military uses "old" tech for a very long time..20 0or 30 year is not un-common. So a 10 year automotive "life" is not unusual.

The aerospace industry suffers from this big time. The product life cycle for commercial airplanes is way longer than automotive. For instance the 747 was designed in the mid 60's. I remember even 20 years ago that we had to purchase old integrated circuits for a landing gear system we designed and built. We paid an enormous premium for the parts but was forced to do so because the vendor knew the situation.

The 747 ended production last year putting the production life cycle at over 50 years. But there's also continuing service part requirements since there are plenty of 747's still flying.
 
Where this perhaps boils down to: what bikes in the used category will become "parts obsolete" orphans? Those with parts or assemblies that are no longer being manufactured because those tiny little chips or controls are just out of date on the various assembly lines or warehouses? I know that most of the /2's are fine; but perhaps even the electronics that populate the steering tubes and headlight shells of the /5's are gonna be worth buying a couple of junkers in order to have what one needs on down the road. My 03 F250 truck could well become antiquated and "stuck" in the barn for lack of some ignition control. Who knows???..............

Glad I still have Ruthie and Annie for dependable trans..............
 

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The aerospace industry suffers from this big time. The product life cycle for commercial airplanes is way longer than automotive. For instance the 747 was designed in the mid 60's. I remember even 20 years ago that we had to purchase old integrated circuits for a landing gear system we designed and built. We paid an enormous premium for the parts but was forced to do so because the vendor knew the situation.

The 747 ended production last year putting the production life cycle at over 50 years. But there's also continuing service part requirements since there are plenty of 747's still flying.

My brother and SIL made a great living supplying the Navy and other marine industry customers with things as simple as circuit breakers and electrical panels. Stuff like this breaks down and needs replacement when in port. GE doesn't make the same stuff they did 30 years ago. As you know, scavenging and rebuilding is a real thing.

Where this perhaps boils down to: what bikes in the used category will become "parts obsolete" orphans? Those with parts or assemblies that are no longer being manufactured because those tiny little chips or controls are just out of date on the various assembly lines or warehouses? I know that most of the /2's are fine; but perhaps even the electronics that populate the steering tubes and headlight shells of the /5's are gonna be worth buying a couple of junkers in order to have what one needs on down the road. My 03 F250 truck could well become antiquated and "stuck" in the barn for lack of some ignition control. Who knows???..............

Glad I still have Ruthie and Annie for dependable trans..............

I loved your story on your view about electronics, and not trying to be unkind, but sorry to remind you and others, even Ruthie, Annie, and we all will become obsolete quicker than we perhaps think in a very real and lasting way. Nothing lasts forever. Chips are but one current 1st world problem. The BMW HP2 had a final drive 1" longer than other models. They are like unobtainable now for anything less than the price of a whole bike.
 
Rapid technology growing pains.

Good analysis.

The linked article quotes an executive from an old client of mine, Ansys. Wow, has this company moved forward in the last 25 or so years! :eek

Their history is in simulation software and they were smack-dab in the middle of the concurrent engineering revolution, which sped product design, development and manufacturing cycles. Back then their main pitch was finite element analysis applications, but they've move way beyond that.

“That said, there are certainly opportunities to merge functionality from discrete electronics and controllers into a smaller number of chips and electronic systems. System-on-chip (SoC), for example, has been successful in data centers and mobile devices, and 3D IC (three-dimensional integrated circuit) brings higher integration. But the challenges to adoption, including difficult and expensive designs, persist.”

It's really scary seeing so many empty car lots, it looks like American companies could really benefit from design/build partnerships for integrated solutions vs. buying cheap, outdated crap from overseas.

The progress in this area has been stunning, but it sure needs to be moving faster.
 
Every now and again I read something of real interest and very thought provoking on the internet. Thanks so much for posting this.:clap
 
Every now and again I read something of real interest and very thought provoking on the internet. Thanks so much for posting this.:clap

Thanks Jammess. I'm glad you and others liked it. I thought it might be a little complex, but it seems it wasn't.
 
Now it's Petroleum Based Products

There's a shortage now of paints and plastics, while not due to the same issues as the vehicle chip shortage--it is interesting nonetheless. Manufacturing of chemicals have been affected. "Ford Motor Co., hampered by an industrywide shortage of computer chips, is now running short of other parts, too, some of them based on petrochemicals." Unfortunately, I think many things are just going to cost more and take longer to get in the short run.

From the article listed below.

The price of polyvinyl chloride or PVC, used for pipes, medical devices, credit cards, vinyl records and more, has rocketed 70%. The price of epoxy resins, used for coatings, adhesives and paints, has soared 170%. Ethylene — arguably the world’s most important chemical, used in everything from food packaging to antifreeze to polyester — has surged 43%, according to ICIS figures.

The root of the problem has become a familiar one in the 18 months since the pandemic ignited a brief but brutal recession: As the economy sank into near-paralysis, petrochemical producers, like manufacturers of all types, slashed production. So they were caught flat-footed when the unexpected happened: The economy swiftly bounced back, and consumers, flush with cash from government relief aid and stockpiles of savings, resumed spending with astonishing speed and vigor.

Suddenly, companies were scrambling to acquire raw materials and parts to meet surging orders. Panic buying worsened the shortages as companies rushed to stock up while they could.

“It’s such a bizarre scenario,” said Hassan Ahmed, a chemicals analyst with Alembic Global Advisors, a research firm. “Inventories are lean, and supply is low. Demand will exceed supply growth.”


https://apnews.com/article/coronavi...h-hurricanes-46bce9cc36dab2b330309dae0354cf53
 
This makes sense to me. I , too, worked in an industry that required extensive testing and qualification of parts before they could be used. One of our big moneymakers for a long time was designed in the mid-1960's around a mechanical TV tuner switch. At the time it was cheap, reliable, and plentiful. Fifty years later we had to exercise a Defense Priority rating to get anyone to make it, they demanded a sizeable minimum buy, and we still ended up rejecting 2 out of every 3 for quality issues. Over and above inflation, the switch that cost 50 cents in 1965 ended up costing 3 x $150 each, plus inspection and rework costs.
 

"Why can't we all just get along?".

Very cool that somebody figured out how to make some really precise machinery :thumb

Now the bad news....... What did they (big business/corporations) think was going to happen when so many things are outsourced?

OM
 
Now the bad news....... What did they (big business/corporations) think was going to happen when so many things are outsourced?

And perhaps the even worse news, what do we think will happen when Taiwan (the real chip powerhouse) is invaded by the CCP?

btw, Siemens was a client of mine and one of their divisions was a major supplier of “chip shooters”… machines that automatically placed surface mounted devices on circuit boards. Fujitsu was another big name. I have been to a number of the big electronics tradeshows in Asia… it’s pretty amazing what’s going on in that part of the world.
 
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