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  1. #1
    wanderer
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    The future of ICE auto's is emerging sorry off BMW topic

    Here is a bit of a Bloomberg article this morning.

    Motorcycle evolution will be much different much slower....but investment in ICE engine development is Very close to it's end. ie we are seeing the best engines now or in very near future.

    https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/...g/v0/-1x-1.png

  2. #2
    Registered User AKsuited's Avatar
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    I don't believe ending production of ICE cars will happen any time soon, especially in the US and Canada where distances are greater than in Europe. And this coming from a guy whose car is a plug-in hybrid Prius Prime.

    How are you going to do a cross-country trip in an all-electric car? You would need a range of at least 400 miles and every motel out there would have to provide charging stations, and many of them. My opinion - that will never happen. This is just a woke fairy tale, that every car will be electric. I'll say it again, the sweet spot is plug-in hybrid cars - no restriction on range, and impressive fuel economy. I'm not knocking electric cars, just saying that people who want to do road trips in their car will need something other than all-electric to take those trips.

    Harry
    Last edited by AKsuited; 07-21-2021 at 09:34 PM.
    My fleet: 2015 R1200GS, 2017 Toyota Prius Prime (plug-in hybrid)

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by AKsuited View Post
    I'm not knocking electric cars, just saying that people who want to do road trips in their car will need something other than all-electric to take those trips.

    Harry
    One of our most enjoyable trips recently was by train from Alpine, Texas to San Francisco by train to attend the Hardly Strictly Bluegrass Festival in Golden Gate Park.

    Or travel by E-Car in the norther tier of states where motels already have outlets for engine heaters,
    Paul Glaves - "Big Bend", Texas U.S.A
    "The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem in a way that will allow a solution." - Bertrand Russell
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  4. #4
    Registered User AKsuited's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PGlaves View Post

    Or travel by E-Car in the norther tier of states where motels already have outlets for engine heaters,
    New York is in that northern tier of states and I have never seen an engine block heater cord. We did stay at a Red Roof in Malone, NY, which had a couple of charging stations, which I used. We just got back from a car trip to NH - no electric cords or charging stations at the motel, and NH is in that northern tier of states.

    Just sayin' - it would take a huge commitment in providing charging stations, most of it by private-sector motels, to enable long distance travel in electric cars, and I just don't see that happening any time soon.

    Harry
    My fleet: 2015 R1200GS, 2017 Toyota Prius Prime (plug-in hybrid)

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by AKsuited View Post
    New York is in that northern tier of states and I have never seen an engine block heater cord. We did stay at a Red Roof in Malone, NY, which had a couple of charging stations, which I used. We just got back from a car trip to NH - no electric cords or charging stations at the motel, and NH is in that northern tier of states.

    Just sayin' - it would take a huge commitment in providing charging stations, most of it by private-sector motels, to enable long distance travel in electric cars, and I just don't see that happening any time soon.

    Harry
    I used to travel all over North Dakota and plug ins are getting harder to find. If a motel had them, there was limited access to them. Modern automobiles will start much more reliably than those built 30-40 years ago. I never plugged in my work truck even when it hit -30F.

    I can see most people having one electric and one gasser. The electric can be used to commute the few miles to work and back and the gaser for longer trips. For us west of the Mississippi it is not unusual to run a few hundred miles in a day and if I could find a charging station I really don't want to sit for an hour or two just watching electrons flow.

    Some time age I saw a video and the person speaking claims in a few years, at least in the big cities, most people will not even own a car. For one reason real estate is too expensive to park one. You will get up in the morning and hop into a Uber for your ride to work. He figured there will be many companies like Uber with fleets of vehicles.

    Electric cars in large numbers will happen some day, but I seriously doubt it will be as soon as planned.
    From the only real Fargo, ND!

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by PoorUB View Post
    Some time age I saw a video and the person speaking claims in a few years, at least in the big cities, most people will not even own a car. For one reason real estate is too expensive to park one. You will get up in the morning and hop into a Uber for your ride to work. He figured there will be many companies like Uber with fleets of vehicles.
    .
    This is probably closest to the truth. In the cities, with Uber and Lift, kids today aren't even interested in getting their drivers license at age 16. Man, when I grew up, that's the very FIRST thing you did on your 16th birthday!

  7. #7
    Registered User 88bmwjeff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PoorUB View Post
    Some time age I saw a video and the person speaking claims in a few years, at least in the big cities, most people will not even own a car. For one reason real estate is too expensive to park one. You will get up in the morning and hop into a Uber for your ride to work. He figured there will be many companies like Uber with fleets of vehicles.
    I noticed a shift in zoning laws in the big cities in the San Francisco Bay Area from minimum parking requirements to maximum parking requirements. Those in charge are hoping to get people out of their cars into public transit. And, use a carsharing service (e.g. Zipcar) for the few times when a car is needed. I've seem a parking requirement for a minimum number of parking spaces for a carsharing services in newer apartment buildings. The main thought is to have an impact on traffic.
    Jeff in W.C.
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  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by vtbob View Post
    Here is a bit of a Bloomberg article this morning.

    Motorcycle evolution will be much different much slower....but investment in ICE engine development is Very close to it's end. ie we are seeing the best engines now or in very near future.

    https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/...g/v0/-1x-1.png
    That graphic has nothing to do with the development state of the ICE. It's all about thinking we'll save the earth if we ban nasty fossil fuel vehicles. Governments run by technocrats who have no clue about life in the real world are mandating it. I think the earth would beg to differ about being saved, as would the people who live where the materials for batteries and electric motors are mined.

    https://interestingengineering.com/c...ining-business
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesel...h=20c233c176d2

    Modern ICE vehicles emit a fraction of the pollutants of what they did when I was growing up (60s-70s). I remember how bad cars and trucks stunk and the pollution when we'd visit family up in the Northeast US back then. Yeah, they are still emitting carbon from the combustion process, but the fossil fuel power plants generating electricity are too. With current state of batteries and the power grid, what is being done by switching to electric cars now is one form of pollution and carbon emissions is being traded for another. Which is actually better? Highly evolved, very clean modern ICE powered vehicles which already have an infrastructure in place or still very new, crude battery powered ones whose impact to the land is far greater than the internal combustion engine?

    https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lith...ronment-impact

    Want to really know why that chart shows what it does? Follow the money. Most of it leads to our politicians via China.
    Scott Taranovich
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  9. #9
    wanderer
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    Quote Originally Posted by taran1900 View Post
    That graphic has nothing to do with the development state of the ICE. It's all about thinking we'll save the earth if we ban nasty fossil fuel vehicles. Governments run by technocrats who have no clue about life in the real world are mandating it. I think the earth would beg to differ about being saved, as would the people who live where the materials for batteries and electric motors are mined.

    https://interestingengineering.com/c...ining-business
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesel...h=20c233c176d2

    Modern ICE vehicles emit a fraction of the pollutants of what they did when I was growing up (60s-70s). I remember how bad cars and trucks stunk and the pollution when we'd visit family up in the Northeast US back then. Yeah, they are still emitting carbon from the combustion process, but the fossil fuel power plants generating electricity are too. With current state of batteries and the power grid, what is being done by switching to electric cars now is one form of pollution and carbon emissions is being traded for another. Which is actually better? Highly evolved, very clean modern ICE powered vehicles which already have an infrastructure in place or still very new, crude battery powered ones whose impact to the land is far greater than the internal combustion engine?

    https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lith...ronment-impact

    Want to really know why that chart shows what it does? Follow the money. Most of it leads to our politicians via China.
    Yep, a perspective from the status quo

    Some places are moving ahead, dealing with pollution, climate change. Here in Vt our power grid is 100% renewable, yep some wood powered but mostly hydro, by a lot and solar and wind. So getting away from ICE here really does make a difference....

    I do agree, living is a rural area battery cars in winter is a real challenge. Time and capitalism will improve the number of charging stations and range of the cars. ( who needs 600hp and 3 seconds to 60??) Less powerful cars need less battery, etc etc

    ps The text from the Bloomberg article was dropped.....Calif and Mass are following the EU ICE auto time line. Some other states will follow them in time. The US as a whole will never do it ...to much money in the fossil fuel industry lobby.

  10. #10
    Registered User jad01's Avatar
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    Somehow, I think e-car manufacturers are eventually going to have to agree to a standardized, swappable battery platform that can be changed at "service stations". That would take advantage of existing infrastructure (e.g., existing gas/service stations), and address the charge time required for travelers. As for the issue of mining, no good option there, in my view... any type of mining tends to be bad for the local environment, whether it's coal, oil, natural gas, lithium, copper... you name it.

    Ostensibly, the advantage of the batteries is that the "parts" can be recycled/remanufactured at the end of their lifecycle, and as Bob points out, can be charged with renewable energy sources. Most of the major oil companies are heavily invested in renewables, and are leading in developing renewable energy service contracts with big energy users in tech (i.e., Google) and distribution (i.e., Amazon) if that tells you anything.
    Last edited by jad01; 07-22-2021 at 04:04 PM.
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  11. #11
    Focused kbasa's Avatar
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    Think about how often we really do a 500 mile day. A Mustang Mach E goes 270 in the real world. Even when I was commuting, that was a week of driving.

    EVs will work fine for a huge swath of the population for 95% of their driving needs. Add in fueling it off your roof and EVs become economically advantageous over ICE vehicles.

    We have 5 bikes, an SUV, a sports car and a pickup. An EV will join that set and will likely do the bulk of our chores.

    And attempts to frame the current situation as being better than the past are a very weak argument against moving ahead. A D is better than getting an F, but not by much and not to a point we’d call “success”. We still get a D-, imho.
    Dave Swider
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  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by kbasa View Post
    We still get a D-, imho.
    Paul Glaves - "Big Bend", Texas U.S.A
    "The greatest challenge to any thinker is stating the problem in a way that will allow a solution." - Bertrand Russell
    http://web.bigbend.net/~glaves/

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by kbasa View Post
    Think about how often we really do a 500 mile day. A Mustang Mach E goes 270 in the real world. Even when I was commuting, that was a week of driving.
    As we’ve traveled around the west, trailering my 70mpg Honda CB500X to fabulous riding areas, I could not have taken one of my rides on an electric motorcycle. As much as I want one (really Jonesing bad for a Zero DSR) the only thing you can do with an e-bike is commute. And I am RETIRED!

    Today I rode from Custer to Spearfish to Newcastle and back to Custer. I would have had to overnight in Spearfish on an e-bike.

    At my home in WNC my typical ride would take at least 1 battery recharge or I’d have to head back home at the 50-mile out point.

    That is the basic reason for the D- you speak of.

    We will get there, it will take time and fresh technology ideas.

    For now I am going to stick with a fuel-efficient ICE bike at 25% of the cost of a DSR… with dealers nationwide!

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by vtbob View Post
    Yep, a perspective from the status quo

    Some places are moving ahead, dealing with pollution, climate change. Here in Vt our power grid is 100% renewable, yep some wood powered but mostly hydro, by a lot and solar and wind. So getting away from ICE here really does make a difference....

    I do agree, living is a rural area battery cars in winter is a real challenge. Time and capitalism will improve the number of charging stations and range of the cars. ( who needs 600hp and 3 seconds to 60??) Less powerful cars need less battery, etc etc

    ps The text from the Bloomberg article was dropped.....Calif and Mass are following the EU ICE auto time line. Some other states will follow them in time. The US as a whole will never do it ...to much money in the fossil fuel industry lobby.
    California is run by people who have no clue about cause and effect and Mass is tiny. Much easier for Mass to put enough charging stations to ensure you can get anywhere in an electric car. Texas or say, Wyoming? Not so much.

    The California power grid cannot even run under high load in summer without the old power lines setting the state on fire, and then there's the renewable power situation there. California like Vt, relies heavily on hydro power. California is running out of water as is the Hoover Dam. Hydro is roughly 11% of the base load generation there and 11% is not an insignificant number. They don't think things through. You can't have any significant number of all vehicles be battery powered with have enough energy to charge them. Cart before the horse comes to mind.

    Unless we see an huge advancement in battery technology reducing their weight, volatility (fires) and impact on the environment, battery powered electric vehicles are just a stop gap solution. A recent Tesla S Plaid fire took something like 200 thousand gallons of water to extinguish. Does the west have enough water to put out battery powered car fires? Fuel cell powered vehicles are a much more viable option but you still have to use significant amounts of electricity to produce the hydrogen fuel. The base load of the power grid would still need significant upgrading but you would not have to have massive infrastructure upgrades as the hydrogen production can be located in specific areas. It doesn't have to everywhere like fueling stations. And variable renewable energy would be perfect for generating the energy needed to extract the hydrogen. There are some possible alternates to using pure hydrogen fuel like ammonia which is mostly hydrogen and it would require far less energy to produce.

    Oh, and capitalism will not build an upgraded power grid or new generation. Why? The profit margin, if there is any, is tiny. Only when it becomes more profitable will it be done. Unless we the tax payers pay for it. With the current state of corruption in the US it's likely that most of the tax dollars for infrastructure upgrades will line the pockets of the powers that be making them richer and us poorer. And not make any significant infrastructure progress.

    Fiats like declaring all vehicles sold in year X sound great at first, but really are kind of meaningless because they don't address the horse that powers the cart. ICE will be here longer than you think. Or we are destined to be imprisoned in the place we live because we will not have the means to travel in or on our own vehicles.
    Scott Taranovich
    McKinney, Texas
    2019 R1250RT

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by taran1900 View Post
    Fiats like declaring all vehicles sold in year X sound great at first, but really are kind of meaningless because they don't address the horse that powers the cart. ICE will be here longer than you think. Or we are destined to be imprisoned in the place we live because we will not have the means to travel in or on our own vehicles.
    A better strategy would be so seek alternative means of producing fossil fuels until the renewable/alternative fuel/power technologies catch up. I am talking about things like capturing carbon from coal/oil/gas power plants and feeding it to algae reactors to produce biofuels.

    Can you imagine how much smaller these problems would be if we had not basically killed the nuclear power industry?

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