The future of ICE auto's is emerging sorry off BMW topic

[vtbob]

Here is a bit of a Bloomberg article this morning.

Motorcycle evolution will be much different much slower....but investment in ICE engine development is Very close to it's end. ie we are seeing the best engines now or in very near future.

https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i8GOXz3BiQFg/v0/-1x-1.png

 

[AKsuited]

I don't believe ending production of ICE cars will happen any time soon, especially in the US and Canada where distances are greater than in Europe. And this coming from a guy whose car is a plug-in hybrid Prius Prime.

How are you going to do a cross-country trip in an all-electric car? You would need a range of at least 400 miles and every motel out there would have to provide charging stations, and many of them. My opinion - that will never happen. This is just a woke fairy tale, that every car will be electric. I'll say it again, the sweet spot is plug-in hybrid cars - no restriction on range, and impressive fuel economy. I'm not knocking electric cars, just saying that people who want to do road trips in their car will need something other than all-electric to take those trips.

Harry

 

[pglaves]

I'm not knocking electric cars, just saying that people who want to do road trips in their car will need something other than all-electric to take those trips.

Harry

One of our most enjoyable trips recently was by train from Alpine, Texas to San Francisco by train to attend the Hardly Strictly Bluegrass Festival in Golden Gate Park.

Or travel by E-Car in the norther tier of states where motels already have outlets for engine heaters,

 

[AKsuited]

Or travel by E-Car in the norther tier of states where motels already have outlets for engine heaters,

New York is in that northern tier of states and I have never seen an engine block heater cord. We did stay at a Red Roof in Malone, NY, which had a couple of charging stations, which I used. We just got back from a car trip to NH - no electric cords or charging stations at the motel, and NH is in that northern tier of states.

Just sayin' - it would take a huge commitment in providing charging stations, most of it by private-sector motels, to enable long distance travel in electric cars, and I just don't see that happening any time soon.

Harry

 

[taran1900]

Here is a bit of a Bloomberg article this morning.

Motorcycle evolution will be much different much slower....but investment in ICE engine development is Very close to it's end. ie we are seeing the best engines now or in very near future.

https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i8GOXz3BiQFg/v0/-1x-1.png

That graphic has nothing to do with the development state of the ICE. It's all about thinking we'll save the earth if we ban nasty fossil fuel vehicles. Governments run by technocrats who have no clue about life in the real world are mandating it. I think the earth would beg to differ about being saved, as would the people who live where the materials for batteries and electric motors are mined.

https://interestingengineering.com/clean-evs-and-dirty-lithium-mining-business
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamese...y-better-for-the-environment/?sh=20c233c176d2

Modern ICE vehicles emit a fraction of the pollutants of what they did when I was growing up (60s-70s). I remember how bad cars and trucks stunk and the pollution when we'd visit family up in the Northeast US back then. Yeah, they are still emitting carbon from the combustion process, but the fossil fuel power plants generating electricity are too. With current state of batteries and the power grid, what is being done by switching to electric cars now is one form of pollution and carbon emissions is being traded for another. Which is actually better? Highly evolved, very clean modern ICE powered vehicles which already have an infrastructure in place or still very new, crude battery powered ones whose impact to the land is far greater than the internal combustion engine?

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environment-impact

Want to really know why that chart shows what it does? Follow the money. Most of it leads to our politicians via China.

 

[vtbob]

That graphic has nothing to do with the development state of the ICE. It's all about thinking we'll save the earth if we ban nasty fossil fuel vehicles. Governments run by technocrats who have no clue about life in the real world are mandating it. I think the earth would beg to differ about being saved, as would the people who live where the materials for batteries and electric motors are mined.

https://interestingengineering.com/clean-evs-and-dirty-lithium-mining-business
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamese...y-better-for-the-environment/?sh=20c233c176d2

Modern ICE vehicles emit a fraction of the pollutants of what they did when I was growing up (60s-70s). I remember how bad cars and trucks stunk and the pollution when we'd visit family up in the Northeast US back then. Yeah, they are still emitting carbon from the combustion process, but the fossil fuel power plants generating electricity are too. With current state of batteries and the power grid, what is being done by switching to electric cars now is one form of pollution and carbon emissions is being traded for another. Which is actually better? Highly evolved, very clean modern ICE powered vehicles which already have an infrastructure in place or still very new, crude battery powered ones whose impact to the land is far greater than the internal combustion engine?

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environment-impact

Want to really know why that chart shows what it does? Follow the money. Most of it leads to our politicians via China.

Yep, a perspective from the status quo

Some places are moving ahead, dealing with pollution, climate change. Here in Vt our power grid is 100% renewable, yep some wood powered but mostly hydro, by a lot and solar and wind. So getting away from ICE here really does make a difference....

I do agree, living is a rural area battery cars in winter is a real challenge. Time and capitalism will improve the number of charging stations and range of the cars. ( who needs 600hp and 3 seconds to 60??) Less powerful cars need less battery, etc etc

ps The text from the Bloomberg article was dropped.....Calif and Mass are following the EU ICE auto time line. Some other states will follow them in time. The US as a whole will never do it ...to much money in the fossil fuel industry lobby.

 

[jad01]

Somehow, I think e-car manufacturers are eventually going to have to agree to a standardized, swappable battery platform that can be changed at "service stations". That would take advantage of existing infrastructure (e.g., existing gas/service stations), and address the charge time required for travelers. As for the issue of mining, no good option there, in my view... any type of mining tends to be bad for the local environment, whether it's coal, oil, natural gas, lithium, copper... you name it.

Ostensibly, the advantage of the batteries is that the "parts" can be recycled/remanufactured at the end of their lifecycle, and as Bob points out, can be charged with renewable energy sources. Most of the major oil companies are heavily invested in renewables, and are leading in developing renewable energy service contracts with big energy users in tech (i.e., Google) and distribution (i.e., Amazon) if that tells you anything.

 

[kbasa]

Think about how often we really do a 500 mile day. A Mustang Mach E goes 270 in the real world. Even when I was commuting, that was a week of driving.

EVs will work fine for a huge swath of the population for 95% of their driving needs. Add in fueling it off your roof and EVs become economically advantageous over ICE vehicles.

We have 5 bikes, an SUV, a sports car and a pickup. An EV will join that set and will likely do the bulk of our chores.

And attempts to frame the current situation as being better than the past are a very weak argument against moving ahead. A D is better than getting an F, but not by much and not to a point we’d call “success”. We still get a D-, imho.

 

[pglaves]

We still get a D-, imho.

 

[MCMXCIVRS]

I'm not against EVs, but neither do I see them as a full replacement for ICE vehicles any time soon. Battery technology has come far in the past several years, but has a long way to go yet. Swap-able technology would be a huge benefit for longer distance travel without the long charge times. Still, for the heavy work, it'll be hard for an EVs to match ICEs. Another issue being raised is the ability of our current electricity grid to manage the demand of a society full of EVs.

Since all the concern about ICE seems to be centered on CO2 emissions, I wonder what part pure hydrogen will play since it would produce zero CO2 at the tailpipe.

 

[pglaves]

I'm not against EVs, but neither do I see them as a full replacement for ICE vehicles any time soon. Battery technology has come far in the past several years, but has a long way to go yet. Swap-able technology would be a huge benefit for longer distance travel without the long charge times. Still, for the heavy work, it'll be hard for an EVs to match ICEs. Another issue being raised is the ability of our current electricity grid to manage the demand of a society full of EVs.

Since all the concern about ICE seems to be centered on CO2 emissions, I wonder what part pure hydrogen will play since it would produce zero CO2 at the tailpipe.

Electric? Hydrogen combustion? Hydrogen Fuel Cell? In any event there will be huge changes in the next few years.

 

[Omega Man]

Electric? Hydrogen combustion? Hydrogen Fuel Cell? In any event there will be huge changes in the next few years.

Missed pay by the miles driven.
OM

 

[pglaves]

Missed pay by the miles driven.
OM

I'm Ok with that as long as the rates reflect true costs. That would see large trucks which are 65 times more damaging to roadways than motorcycles paying their fair share. Of course that won't happen but it is what would be dictated by equity matching costs to revenues.

 

[88bmwjeff]

While the time frame seems rather short to stop selling ICE vehicles, the time frame is an optimist time frame. These time frames are set very optimistic to get the industry to develop the new technology. Without these short timeframes, the development would most likely move slower. However, development doesn't always meet the hopeful time frames, and the deadlines are often reset, which may happen here.

On a side note, I wonder why these countries haven't mandated hybrid vehicles in the short run, since that is a proven technology.

For me, the two main barriers (excluding cost, but that could be one) that would prevent from buying an EV, is the range of the vehicle and the recharging time. It seems like the range has been met by most; however, the charging time, while significantly shorter now than it was 10 years ago, is still way too long for my preference.

 

[88bmwjeff]

That graphic has nothing to do with the development state of the ICE. It's all about thinking we'll save the earth if we ban nasty fossil fuel vehicles. Governments run by technocrats who have no clue about life in the real world are mandating it. I think the earth would beg to differ about being saved, as would the people who live where the materials for batteries and electric motors are mined.

https://interestingengineering.com/clean-evs-and-dirty-lithium-mining-business
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamese...y-better-for-the-environment/?sh=20c233c176d2

Modern ICE vehicles emit a fraction of the pollutants of what they did when I was growing up (60s-70s). I remember how bad cars and trucks stunk and the pollution when we'd visit family up in the Northeast US back then. Yeah, they are still emitting carbon from the combustion process, but the fossil fuel power plants generating electricity are too. With current state of batteries and the power grid, what is being done by switching to electric cars now is one form of pollution and carbon emissions is being traded for another. Which is actually better? Highly evolved, very clean modern ICE powered vehicles which already have an infrastructure in place or still very new, crude battery powered ones whose impact to the land is far greater than the internal combustion engine?

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environment-impact

Want to really know why that chart shows what it does? Follow the money. Most of it leads to our politicians via China.

With regards to the environmental cost of lithium, I've read that it's aluminum-ion batteries is the hopeful replacement that would also be quicker. However, mining aluminum has it's environmental issues as well. If it goes that route, let's hope the environmental issues surrounding aluminum mining are lower than for lithium.

https://www.inceptivemind.com/new-g...tteries-charge-faster-than-lithium-ion/19079/

 

[Omega Man]

I'm Ok with that as long as the rates reflect true costs. That would see large trucks which are 65 times more damaging to roadways than motorcycles paying their fair share. Of course that won't happen but it is what would be dictated by equity matching costs to revenues.

I was mainly referring to electric vehicles are not paying gas taxes (for the most part). I wonder how sales would be without a tax credit?
Things are going a bit crazy as using natural gas for heating and cooking is now being discouraged.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/battle-brews-over-banning-natural-gas-to-homes-11622334674

Song from the ‘70s seems to be relevant-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iwLvmPUEo4

The energy needs to come from somewhere……..cost effectively.



OM

 

[Visian]

Song from the ‘70s seems to be relevant-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iwLvmPUEo4

the more things change, the more **** happens…. you know the old saw.

 

[Visian]

Think about how often we really do a 500 mile day. A Mustang Mach E goes 270 in the real world. Even when I was commuting, that was a week of driving.

As we’ve traveled around the west, trailering my 70mpg Honda CB500X to fabulous riding areas, I could not have taken one of my rides on an electric motorcycle. As much as I want one (really Jonesing bad for a Zero DSR) the only thing you can do with an e-bike is commute. And I am RETIRED!

Today I rode from Custer to Spearfish to Newcastle and back to Custer. I would have had to overnight in Spearfish on an e-bike.

At my home in WNC my typical ride would take at least 1 battery recharge or I’d have to head back home at the 50-mile out point.

That is the basic reason for the D- you speak of.

We will get there, it will take time and fresh technology ideas.

For now I am going to stick with a fuel-efficient ICE bike at 25% of the cost of a DSR… with dealers nationwide!

 

[motormike]

the only thing you can do with an e-bike is commute. And I am RETIRED!

Me too. Electrics are perfect for commuting back and forth to work, or any set route where you know your exact distance, like a delivery or mail truck. For the rest of us, second vehicle at best. I live in rural Tennessee, as I drive my gas-guzzling V8 Pickup around my small town, can't help but notice...not a single charging station to be found. Kinda like it that way, keeps out the riff-raf.

 

[guenner]

Some test a Tesla across country

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uC95WACQhCY

There is quite some help in a Tesla to manage your trip finding charging stations. It's a start!

In ca. 1910 some guy tried to cross the country form east to west by car. He had to find pharmacies which had something close to gasoline.

/Guenther