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Sandy

Don,
Really glad to see a post from you indicating you guys are safe and got off with only the inconvenience, as much of a nuisance as it is. Knowing where you live, its a good thing this wasn't a really powerful storm (big, yes bot not so powerful). Both winds and surge can get a lot worse than came with Sandy. Hope things get back to normal in Spring Lake as soon as possible.

Some comments on the other stuff
1) The NWS guys do superb, highly detailed local and extremely accurate work. AccuWesther and similar are pretty much a joke by comparison in you compare for accuracy over time. The NWS discussion page is my first and most important weather summary- from there its direct to real time satellite and radar info or NHS as needed. AccuWeather and its cute apps aren't even on my list...(Used to keep a printer set up to pull the marine fax from shortwave transmissions years ago when I fished offshore, don't need that any more- but still sometimes listen to the marine info on our local NOAA channel and look at the offshore buoy data being transmitted).

2) Yes there is a lot of really stupid building on the coast- driven by greed of locals, mostly, then reinforced by interest of folks foolish enough to buy there without wanting to take personal responsibility for a foolish choice. But one needs to remember that NYC infrastructure layout is very old and much of that poorly situated and low-built housing in NJ has been there 50 yrs or more so predates much of the ocean level changes and weather shifts that have tilted risks in the past years.

Perhaps this storm will serve as a wakeup but I doubt it. It is possible with big expense to protect small areas like cities, even NY, though it would cost probably $20 billion minimum to do anything useful. It is also possible to build on pilings in beach towns to minimize surge damage. But in the long run the only real answer for anything other than a few areas is to get off the beach..
Personally, I put subsidizing the insurance and perpetual rebuilding of beach places repetitively leveled offensive. Much of the recent waves have been funny money building Mc-mansions intended as investment and rental- I see no reason for those well inland to subsidize the mostly wealthy and well off folks doing this. In the old days and style, some families built to live at the beach as a main residence but that is not the prime driver of a lot of current development. An example of a location with both types of building is parts of Long Beach Island in NJ- a lot of it has been severely damaged in previous storms and rebuilt and it has small percent of year round residents with a huge summer influx of almost 10X that number- from Philly and other metro places nearby.

3) Ocean front changes have always happened and at present are happening at an accelerated rate. One could argue about how much of that is human caused but it is real and not a figment of imagination. There are islands in Cheasapeake Bay that are going under water slowly and the cost to artificially maintain barrier islands sand in place is getting so high even the feds are shucking it off to local govts that literally cannot afford it- so they're looking to state govts which won't want to waste huge resources on what will be a loosing effort over the long term. Satellite photos make clear the effects of warming- the breakup and loss of the worlds huge ice masses means that water has to go someplace and even the low end estimates show mean sea level up another 3 ft in the next 50 years. All of us might be dead of old age before being hit by the impacts of this but it is coming- for our kids and theirs. 3 ft doesn't sound like much but is close to half the height of Sandy's storm surge and would be the new baseline to which any surge height gets added- it is a huge change.
 
Just a few thoughts from someone who was effected by Sandy..

- The comments blaming the residents are in rather poor taste IMHO. Cities and towns did what they could to prepare, fully knowing the effort they could take wouldn't change things a lot.

It is obvious, and almost always the case that the residents are the victims. It is primarily the local governments and some businesses that have dropped or hidden the ball for years and years. As early as 1974 most flood hazard areas were identified and attempts were made to encourage local governments to use rudimentary controls. That failed. Later the federally subsidized flood insurance program required local governments to limit development in flood hazard areas or the entire community would not be eligible for flood insurance. Developers and local governments found many creative ways around these rules. Using Katrina as an example - current law says that if a property is substantially damaged (more than 50% of pre-flood value) it cannot be rebuilt unless elevated above the flood hazard elevation or flood proofed to that elevation. The kicker is that as of just a few years ago they were still using 1938 meteorology data to set those elevations. Whoops! So in New Orleans we see houses going on stilts but some being rebuilt with waivers.

Anybody who lives in a community that had flooding ought to go downtown and ask to see the Flood Plain Ordinance and ask what if any waivers have been granted in the past ten years.

Compared to most developed European and Asian countries our power grid is a mess. A few years ago one line sagged into one tree in Ohio and the resulting cascade of shutdowns caused power out in almost the entire Northeast. It is a little better now, but we still have a mid-20th century grid for the 21st century. Whoever thought underground substations in flood prone areas was smart needs to rethink their logic. And the sad thing is that unless there is massive investment (which will raise electric bills a lot) it will take decades to improve the situation much.

Not directly related to Sandy (yet, but wait) it is a fact that 70% of the bridges in this country are rated structurally deficient, and the number keeps climbing every year. Our next "Minneapolis I-35" disaster is not a matter of if, it is only a matter of when. But as citizens a majority insists on lower taxes so the states and localities absolutely lack the ability to raise the funds needed to fix or replace worn out bridges 20 years past their planned life cycle.

I feel fairly safe on most bridges when on my motorcycle, but shudder when crossing some of them meeting loaded semi trucks. I figure I am unlikely to take the bridge out but don't know about the trucks.

Right now we need immediate relief for the victims of Sandy. But then instead of settling into our less is more and everything is roses viewpoints, as a society we need to figure out how to address decades long infrastructure neglect. I'm fairly sure that in a few enlightened spots we might, but in the main we won't.
 
I agree with much of what has been said already. As far as the folks that [thought] they were far enough inland, and just got surprised by this freakishly large storm,..for sure they have my sympathy..and i hope they can get their lives back to normal...ASAP!

As for the folks that build on a barrier island, or on the waters edge of the mainland?..what did they really expect??

Should we the tax-payers bail them out...I think not,...we already carry some of the load for insurance . I firmly believe the Ins. companies spread the cost all around, so that [those] policy's are kept [somewhat] less expensive. Ins. companies by their very nature, are not going to take-it-on-the-chin...so to speak.

And the Gov,backed loans?,....that's our money...........jus'sayin.
 
Don, good to cyber-hear from you.

I doubt there is any private owned or public owned power grid that could have withstood the onslaught of Sandy. We are talking a 700 mile wide hurricane. 700 miles!

When you have hundreds and hundreds of trees falling on hundreds and hundreds of wires, that all need to be repaired individually, these repairs require time. Closer to the beach, power stations were wiped out. Who can design a transformer station to operate under water?

I think we are learning that the only true protection we have is what we plan for ourselves. Expecting any other institution (public or private) to take care of us in a disaster is an unrealistic expectation. The private is driven by money, and the public is driven by politics. As we saw with Katrina, and now Sandy, both will leave the citizen in the lurch.

Bloomberg is staging gasoline, generators, and other provisions (with a cold and starving Staten Island a few miles away) to put on the NYC Marathon. No matter our opinion of this decision pro or con, it still puts Staten Island relief under the whims of a politician. The private sector could produce the same bad result, albeit for different reasons, but to claim one is better than the other is missing the point.

One thing I am 100% sure of: The doomsday preppers don't look so crazy anymore.
 
Some comments on the other stuff
1) The NWS guys do superb, highly detailed local and extremely accurate work. AccuWesther and similar are pretty much a joke by comparison in you compare for accuracy over time. The NWS discussion page is my first and most important weather summary- from there its direct to real time satellite and radar info or NHS as needed. AccuWeather and its cute apps aren't even on my list...(

NWS is at the top of my list as well, it's been my browser startup page for years. Accuweather is just another source out of the 15 WX bookmarks I use and I don't go there every day. I disagree with you on their forecast accuracy, else I wouldn't go there at all. I only pay attention to a couple of their guys, Nexrad and Sat maps tell me pretty much everything I want to know. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ is also very good as an app or webpage.
 
Hey Don, dunno how to fix it, but ten years ago I took a plane ride from Providence to Baltimore right down the coast and could not believe the development. All I could think about then was what would and did happen during this storm.

People will obviously want to rebuild but why would they when it could easily happen again in their lifetimes? Should the cities and towns issue building permits? I've seen plenty of this type of coastal damage in Massachusetts. Some towns actually did refuse to issue permits in certain places, but it's nowhere near the scale facing New Jersey.

Hang in there, man, I know we dodged a big one in Massachusetts.

Thanks Tommy,

My thoughts were a policy that some governments have adopted:

On flood prone areas - a one time buyout offer from the government, who then levels the buildings and lets the property do what it may. This has been done along some river flood areas in NJ. If the people don't take the buyout - they are on their own the next time it floods. In some cases people are allowed to continue to live on the property with a lifetime lease from the government. They are responsible for all the costs of maintaining the property, and insuring against liability, but if the home is damaged beyond a certain point, the lease is terminated and the government can level the property.

Turns out that this is actually economically sensible - the cost of buying and removing the risky property from the market is less then repeatedly helping assist the owners in rebuilding it.

Seems a logical policy to follow, and I'd like to see it offered with the current damaged properties in NJ. Unfortunately - a lot of people won't accept it, but in that case it must be clear the government isn't going to continue assisting them in rebuilding in a location where the same scenerio plays out time after time. I was looking at the government photos (before/after) of the NJ coast, and in many cases where flooding occurred before is exactly where it happened this time. Inlets between the coastal bays/rivers and the ocean have opened in much the same spots - then been filled in and rebuilt on - many times even in my lifetime.

That's one solution. Problem is - much of the damage seen from Sandy is in locations where there have been houses for well over 100 years - that survived this long without damage or flooding. What to do in these cases? Dunno. If you accept that some form of climate change is occurring and these sort of storms are going to become more frequent then the choice may be to improve coastal storm protection, lessen the population density, build smarter, or choose to do nothing and let the free market select what happens. Usually the latter is what happens, with the result that we continue along the same path that got us where we are today. It's probably the most attractive for local politicians because no politician wants to be known as the one who reduced the value of the area they are elected from. It might actually take a politician concerned with what's right rather then what will get them re-elected for this to happen, so I don't really expect that to ever happen.

Best,
 
To all my Jersey Brothers and Sisters...My heart goes out to you all my fellow affected riders and anyone else in the Shore area. I lived in Jersey For MANY Years, in Bricktown. The day before Sandy I road down to Point Pleasant. It was an awesome ride, I will always love The ride down the Delaware river in PA and across into NJ and southeast to the beach... The destruction is devastating...SeaSide... I crossed the 35 bridge into Point Plesant just the day Before...Crazy... I will always have NJ with me, and I will always Ride to the Shore...Its Awesome, I will be back along with Many others and So will the Shore.
I am Jersey Proud...and will always Be So. Here are some shots I have of the Before.
 

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To all my Jersey Brothers and Sisters...My heart goes out to you all my fellow affected riders and anyone else in the Shore area. I lived in Jersey For MANY Years, in Bricktown. The day before Sandy I road down to Point Pleasant. It was an awesome ride, I will always love The ride down the Delaware river in PA and across into NJ and southeast to the beach... The destruction is devastating...SeaSide... I crossed the 35 bridge into Point Plesant just the day Before...Crazy... I will always have NJ with me, and I will always Ride to the Shore...Its Awesome, I will be back along with Many others and So will the Shore.
I am Jersey Proud...and will always Be So. Here are some shots I have of the Before.

More.
 

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Sandy Did Lost of Trail damage

I was out on my F800 Today.. Riddig in the Pocono Area. Lots of damage to the trails around here. But I was able to make it through. Some of the Dirt roads had bad ruts and trees still down.
 

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It is obvious, and almost always the case that the residents are the victims. It is primarily the local governments and some businesses that have dropped or hidden the ball for years and years. As early as 1974 most flood hazard areas were identified and attempts were made to encourage local governments to use rudimentary controls. That failed. Later the federally subsidized flood insurance program required local governments to limit development in flood hazard areas or the entire community would not be eligible for flood insurance. Developers and local governments found many creative ways around these rules. Using Katrina as an example - current law says that if a property is substantially damaged (more than 50% of pre-flood value) it cannot be rebuilt unless elevated above the flood hazard elevation or flood proofed to that elevation. The kicker is that as of just a few years ago they were still using 1938 meteorology data to set those elevations. Whoops! So in New Orleans we see houses going on stilts but some being rebuilt with waivers.

Anybody who lives in a community that had flooding ought to go downtown and ask to see the Flood Plain Ordinance and ask what if any waivers have been granted in the past ten years.

Compared to most developed European and Asian countries our power grid is a mess. A few years ago one line sagged into one tree in Ohio and the resulting cascade of shutdowns caused power out in almost the entire Northeast. It is a little better now, but we still have a mid-20th century grid for the 21st century. Whoever thought underground substations in flood prone areas was smart needs to rethink their logic. And the sad thing is that unless there is massive investment (which will raise electric bills a lot) it will take decades to improve the situation much.

Not directly related to Sandy (yet, but wait) it is a fact that 70% of the bridges in this country are rated structurally deficient, and the number keeps climbing every year. Our next "Minneapolis I-35" disaster is not a matter of if, it is only a matter of when. But as citizens a majority insists on lower taxes so the states and localities absolutely lack the ability to raise the funds needed to fix or replace worn out bridges 20 years past their planned life cycle.

I feel fairly safe on most bridges when on my motorcycle, but shudder when crossing some of them meeting loaded semi trucks. I figure I am unlikely to take the bridge out but don't know about the trucks.

Right now we need immediate relief for the victims of Sandy. But then instead of settling into our less is more and everything is roses viewpoints, as a society we need to figure out how to address decades long infrastructure neglect. I'm fairly sure that in a few enlightened spots we might, but in the main we won't.

Voni picked a darn smart spouse.
 
I owe an apology to Tommcgee for my nasty toned response to his complaint about the NHC not issuing a hurricane warning to the northeast. The science section of today's new york times has an article about just that.

So, please accept my apology. I was wrong. Hmphhh.
 
I owe an apology to Tommcgee for my nasty toned response to his complaint about the NHC not issuing a hurricane warning to the northeast. The science section of today's new york times has an article about just that.

So, please accept my apology. I was wrong. Hmphhh.

No offense taken, really, it was a strange (and rare) situation.
 
Wow, we took a week and a half off in NW Arkansas and unplugged from the news. Last we heard was it was crossing Cuba.

Seeing the damage last night on the TV brought back lot's of memories having both worked for large power companies and having been a home owner on a barrier island suffering several damaging storms before finally cutting my 45 year ties to it. My mother gave up in 1983 with hurricane Alecia and it's house exploding tornadoes ...one that levelled ours.

I called it quits a few years after Ike in 2008 as the insurance fights and all the new tighter rules to cut their losses hamper the homeowners. The definition of flood,storm surge, and water damage is mind boggling. I had a lot of insurance but still a hassle putting things back to normal.

My heart goes out to the folks who suffered losses and to the weather hampered recovery teams. You don't put a system back together that is damaged like that in a few days. Just remember the power lineman are doing all they can in a short time with some suffering customers whose patience is thinner every hour.It's a hard mix to get it all done swiftly and safely.

And to see older homes that had not ever been in a storm path completely gone from their slabs is indeed heartbreaking. Coastal subsidence and changing weather patterns are redefining flood plains for sure.
 
While Paul, Don and others have some good points- it's really good to have a plan.
Here in the East, the infrastructure is old and the population density is high. If you compile all that with the expectations that "someone else" will clean up after you...your gonna' need a lot of patience.
Another example is from Indianapolis. "They" say they don't know what caused it...I know what fueled it.
http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/11/us/indiana-houses-explode/index.html
RIP to the fatalities, everybody- be careful and aware. :gerg OM
 
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